Category: Regional Analysis

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TRUMP’S FINAL GIFT? Israel’s Massive Strike On Syria’s Iraqi Border Came With US Help

With days to go until the Biden administration officially takes over at the White House, Israel launched another air attack on Iranian forces in Syria. While an attack on Syria by the IAF has become standard in the remaining days of the Trump administration, this time the IAF struck closer to the Iraqi border in Eastern Syria.

The attack targeted at least 15 installations housing Iranian weapons and acted as the main transit hub for the IRCG into Western Syria. There are claims that it killed 57 people – mostly IRCG members or affiliates.

Syria’s official SANA news agency said the following:

“A military source told SANA in a statement that at 01:10 on Wednesday dawn, the Israeli enemy carried out air aggression on Deir Ezzor City and al-Bukamal area.”

WATCH THE ATTACK ABOVE

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From the outset of reports last night, it was already assumed that the US had given Israel the intelligence it needed to successfully carry out such an attack, which essentially crippled the Iranian forces in the area.

The AP has claimed the following in an article published today:

“The U.S. official, who requested anonymity to speak about the matter, said U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo discussed Tuesday’s airstrike with Yossi Cohen, chief of Israel’s spy agency Mossad, at a public meeting in the popular Washington restaurant Café Milano on Monday.”

It has been assumed that the Trump Administration would continue to give Israel the green light to take out as much Iranian hardware and personnel as possible before Biden is installed. After January 20th the sinophilic nature of Biden’s regime will make Israel’s overt strikes very hard to carry out. China wants a strong Iran and if past is prescience then so does the Biden administration.

With the region on high alert after the strike, the question remains whether Iran will hold back for a few more days until the Biden administration takes over or retaliate now. Most observers believe the Mullahs in Tehran will refrain from attacking, but if this is not Trump’s final gift to the Jewish state, then expect something far larger to test the Ayatollah’s resolve

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Qatar-Saudi Deal A Pushback Against Iranian-Chinese Dominance

The recently concluded Qatar-Saudi deal to end the blockade on Qatar has once again changed the equation and calibration of peace in the Middle East. There are those naysayers who believe the deal was concluded in time for a potential Biden administration, but that is improbable.

Remember the embargo on Qatar was led by Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf States precisely because of Qatar’s connections to Iran and its funding of the Muslim Brotherhood.

A Biden administration that is ready to cozy up to the Mullah’s in Iran would elicit a continuing of the present Saudi led embargo.

Most likely, Qatar has realized which way the wind is blowing in the Middle East when it comes to their Sunni friends. Qatar’s strength has always come from its ability to play all sides – the embargo proved to its leadership in Doha that this strategy is no longer an option.

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Qatar Wants In On A Potential UAE-Israel Pipeline

With a reported pipeline between the UAE and Israel in the works, Qatar’s reliance and drive to build one with Turkey has now become obsolete. The main reason for its support for Turkey’s pro ISIS policies during Obama’s tenure was due to the building of this joint Turkey-Qatar pipeline.

Without the ability to build a secure pipeline and the UAE-Israel potentially being far more lucrative, Qatar has less reasons to hold back from returning to the Sunni block.

True, Biden’s team views things differently and this is the reason for Qatar’s decision to pick sides now. With the White House’s foreign policy potentially being run through Beijing, Qatar’s historic “neutrality” in the region is not longer relevant after Jan. 20th.

A Different Middle East – New Opportunities

President Trump’s team has left the region in a very different situation. The Muslim Brotherhood is fast being pushed out after the signing of the Abraham Accords and with it Qatar’s reason and ability to push against its Sunni neighbors and more importantly Israel.

Qatar’s choice to rejoin the Saudi led block also means that it accepts the centrality and necessity of Israel’s role within that block. Biden can certainly try to partner with Iran. However, the block’s strength is its ability to utilize Israel’s innovation economy, military prowess, and geopolitical connections around the world to sidestep a hapless Biden administration and a rising China without losing ground to Iran.

Qatar’s growing communication with Israel concerning Gaza has also made it less obstinate in dealing with the Jewish state on other issues. It also has a working relationship with Jerusalem and will now benefit from the Abraham Accords in an indirect way.

The Qatar-Saudi deal may appear to have come out of nowhere, but it needed to be done before Biden takes over in order to ensure that Iranian influence does not pollute the negotiations. Qatar wants to keep its revenues rising and influence steady and sees the Sunni block as the key to doing it.

This agreement will make it harder for Biden and company to push for rejoining the already broken Iran nuclear deal. More than that, it is a message for China who recently upgraded their military pact with Iran, that the Abraham Accords and the Sunni block will not be broken up.

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Yemen, Iran, and The Coming Attack On Israel

The new alliance between Israel and the UAE as well as Bahrain has upended the Middle East in many ways. From technology and innovation partnerships to military drills and intelligence sharing, the Abraham Accords has made the countries involved the most powerful the region has seen.

None of this has been lost on the Iranians, who understand that despite Biden’s desire to jump back into the nuclear deal, there will be little he can do about the growing strength of the Sunni-Israel alliance.

This is why the Iranians are using Yemen as a forward battle against Saudi clout on the Arabian peninsula. This was clearly demonstrated when the new Saudi backed Yemen government arrived at the Aden airport only to be attacked by Iranian backed Houthis. 26 people were killed the triple bombing and more than 60 wounded.

The blasts were so loud they were heard in Israel.

The message from Iran is clear: Don’t think about joining the Abraham Accords.

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China, Djibouti, and the Control Over The Red Sea

Although most observers have focused their attention on the Persian Gulf, Yemen has strategic value to Iran as rests across the Bab al-Mandab Strait from Djibouti. This is one of the most important choke points for shipping in the world. Freighters travel through Bab al-Mandab Strait and bring oil and other commodities to the West.

This is why China has gone out of its way to build up its base in Djibouti, effectively giving it an advantage in controlling the Red Sea. Furthermore, Beijing has gone out of its way to invest in Eritrea and Ethiopia, securing most of the Horn of Africa.

This is why Saudi Arabia and other Sunni states have long seen the war in Yemen as critical in keeping the Chinese-Iranian alliance to only one side of the Bab al-Mandab Strait.

Message to Israel

With Israeli arms sales and agri-tech development in Ethiopia and other countries on the Horn of Africa, Israel is hoping to keep pressure on Beijing to play fair by keeping the struggle economic.

Iran’s message to Israel is clear. Yemen may have a new government, but it still the Houthis that call the shots and with them the Red Sea and its shipping routes are up for grabs.

Iran is effectively using much of China’s investment in its Belt and Road Initiative to help build a net against Israel and her Sunni allies.

Yemen is critical in controlling both sides of the Bab al-Mandab Strait and with it, a crushing blow to peace in the region.

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Trump should let the Quartet die with James Wolfensohn

James Wolfensohn, the former president of the World Bank Group, passed away on Nov. 15, and in the conclusion of his obituary, The New York Times quoted his “mission impossible” quip about his envoy experience with the Quartet on the Middle East.

“The Middle East turned out to be my mission impossible,” claimed Wolfensohn. He was tasked with working on Israel’s so-called disengagement from the Gaza Strip. Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair would succeed Wolfensohn in leading the Quartet and be the last leader of the Quartet to have any gravitas on the world stage.

The Quartet has outlived both the involvement of Wolfensohn and Blair, who ended his own involvement with his 2015 resignation and now has outlived Wolfensohn himself. But it has also quite literally outlived its usefulness, if it ever had any at all.

It’s almost never in the news, and yet still exists and still has U.S. involvement. As a reminder, the Quartet was established in Madrid in 2002 and is comprised of the United Nations, the European Union, the United States and Russia, according to its website.Subscribe to The JNS Daily Syndicate by email and never miss our top stories

A review of the Quartet’s website is instructive in examining just what’s wrong with the body. Its failures—and they are plentiful—stem from its entire approach to Israel.

The tagline that is included at the top of every page of the Quartet’s website is “supporting the Palestinian people to build the institutions and economy of a viable, peaceful state in Gaza and the West Bank, including East Jerusalem.”

Let’s break down that sentence.

First, it does not mention Israel at all. That, in and of itself, is an important fact that cannot be defended in any way. How can you be about making peace between two sides and ignore that one side exists?

Second, Israel’s major cities and Ben-Gurion International Airport would be within easy rocket range of terrorists sitting on the Palestinian side of the border of a “West Bank” state. Who honestly believes that a new Palestinian government would stamp out the terrorists? Does anybody remember the Oslo Accords, which obligated the Palestinian Authority to outlaw and disarm all terrorists? Who enforced that? Who will enforce future Palestinian compliance?

Not only that, but by linking the Hamas-controlled Gaza terror statelet that now exists with a proposed entity in Judea-Samaria (what the Quartet partisanly labels the “West Bank”) and the Quartet necessitates the creation of a tunnel and/or railway linking Gaza to the P.A.-run territories. Such territorial contiguity would endanger Israel’s security is a very widely accepted fact by Israel’s defense policy establishment.

And that is in part because a tunnel and railway would slice across Israel’s middle and would connect, and thereby significantly strengthen, the potential military capacity of these two perennially hostile anti-Israel regimes. Hamas already takes advantage of every current opportunity to send terrorists from Gaza into Judea and Samaria, so just imagine what it would do if it is given a highway and railway tunnel system through which it could send whatever it wants.

If Israel tried to interfere with Palestinian Arabs using that corridor, it would become the subject of severe international condemnation. The United Nations would almost surely threaten sanctions, as would the European Union. Under such pressure, Israel would hesitate to act—thus effectively tying its hands in the face of a terrorist buildup.

Another issue with the Quartet’s mission statement that must be confronted is the use of a place named “East Jerusalem” when no such place has ever existed in history. The name “East Jerusalem” is an artificial construct that supporters of the Arab use in their propaganda to make it appear as if that part of the city is an intrinsically Arab area that Jews are illegally entering.

The truth is there are Jewish neighborhoods throughout the eastern, western, northern and southern parts of Jerusalem. It’s a shameful thing when Jewish organizations choose to use such geographically inaccurate and politically loaded language. At the time, anti-Israel extremists created the name “East Jerusalem” for one reason: They sought to rip Israel’s capital apart to defeat Israel. What it is that they are really saying with the term is that Jerusalem’s Old City and its surrounding neighborhoods are not part of Israel or part of Israeli Jerusalem itself. The original and oldest parts of Jerusalem are what they falsely label “East Jerusalem.”

For promoters of Israeli territorial concessions, the Gaza Disengagement that Wolfensohn was so heavily involved with was supposed to set the precedent they hoped would soon be repeated in the Judea and Samaria areas. Instead, Gaza has become the most graphic illustration of why relinquishing Judea and Samaria to the perennially hostile and extremely corrupt P.A. is a flat-out dangerous idea.

It’s worth noting that the last time before Wolfensohn’s death the Quartet was in the news at all was in June 2020, in the aftermath of the Trump plan for Middle East peace being made public. The P.A. declared to it, in a letter, “We are ready to have our state with a limited number of weapons.”

Led by Mahmoud Abbas, the P.A. understands that the Quartet’s envoys and its bureaucracy are biased in their favor, even more so than the United Nations, and that is why it appealed to it in its effort to stay relevant when so many other of its former friends around the world were suddenly not willing to kowtow to it any longer.

The Middle East’s political climate has changed remarkably in the last several years, largely due to the work of the Trump administration’s Middle East team. One thing the president can do now to bolster what has been accomplished in the Middle East during his term would be to end U.S. sponsorship from the Quartet. And the sooner, the better.

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China Looms Large Behind The Ethiopian-Tigray Conflict

The current conflict between Federal Ethiopian forces and the TPLF of the northern-most province of Tigray appears to be another sectarian conflict on a continent that has seen endless chaos. Yet, like anything else on the African continent these days, China has become the real puppet master.

The Derg, (a communist dictatorship from 1977 to 1991) fell due to a combined effort of multi-ethnic alliances led by the Tigray leadership still known today as the TPLF. Only 6% of the country’s population, Tigray is historically important and also boasts the most battle hardened troops. Yet, the Prime Minister saw fit in 2018 to reorganize Ethiopian politics under a unitary party, essentially ending his party’s relationship with the TPLF and pushing them out of power.

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The current conflict is far less about Tigray secession, (although the TPLF may decide to do that as a reaction to Federal troops decimating their cities in the North) and far more to do with breaking down the federalized system that has been in place since the fall of the Derge in 1991.

Of all the Ethiopian regions, Tigray has had the most autonomous past and even claim to the throne when a part of the royal family broke off and resided in Tigray. Some would point to the seeds of the present conflict dating back to 1889, when imperial rule returned to Ethiopia, marginalizing the Tigray leadership.

Where Is China In All Of This?

When it comes to Africa, China has directly exploited local conflicts to spur external solutions that bring it more control and power and thus monopolizing Africa’s rich natural resources. The Horn of Africa, made up of Ethiopia, Djibouti, Eritrea, and Somalia is one of the most important geographic locations in the world. It is a choke point along the traditional oil route that Sunni Gulf countries use.

This is why China has made Eritrea, who broke off of Ethiopia, gaining independence in 1991, the main “beachhead” for CCP activities in the Horn of Africa.

In 2019, Eritrean officials met in Beijing with the CCP and agreed to strengthen ties between the two countries. “Eritrea and China stand ready to build a healthy and strong partnership for the benefit of their two peoples,” a statement made by Eritrean Foreign Minister Osman Saleh when he met with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi.

Many observers believe that the 2019 meeting set the stage for Eritrea to be China’s centerpiece for the Belt and Road Initiative in the Horn of Africa.

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Border Dispute With Eritrea Triggered The Tigray Violence

Interestingly enough, as early as 2017, China offered to send troops to the disputed border region between Ethiopia and Eritrea. In fact, it is through Chinese mediation that Ethiopia agreed to hand Eritrea the coveted border area. The area in question was part of Tigray.

It was this acquiesce by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in handing Tigray’s land over to Eritrea that began to spark the unrest.

While China has picked no side in the current conflict, Tigray has accused the Ethiopian government of working with Eritrea to defeat the TPLF. The working relationship is so strong that some of the members of the Ethiopian army have been staying in Eritrea’s border region.

This relationship could have only come about through Chinese contacts. Ethiopia’s decision to begin centralizing power and shuddering the federalized system, is rooted in its relationship with the Chinese; who are encroaching more and more on the Horn. After all, China requires stable and centralized systems of government to guarantee the Belt and Road Initiative’s success.

Besides this, Ethiopia has been one of the most heavily invested African countries by China over the past 50 years.

Unfortunately for China, the unintended consequence of spurring the centralization of Ethiopia to the detriment of various ethnicities, is a further decoupling and talks of other minorities attempting to pull out of the federation.

Dangerous Developments For Israel

While there has been accusations of Ethiopian Federal troops using Israeli UAVs on Tigray, Israel has pretty much stayed quiet on the conflict. On the face of it, Israel would be more in line with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government than Tigray, which is dominated by the Marxist/Left leaning TPLF. However, Chinese encroachment and coopting moves in terms of utilizing the current government in Ethiopia is not something Israel should ignore.

By shoring up its control over the Horn of Africa, China is essentially in control of the Western side of the Red Sea. This means that Iran will have complete access to the Horn, placing shipping routes in danger as well as increasing arms smuggling to Gaza and Hezbollah.

In the great game of redrawn Middle Eastern Alliances, China and its Iranian Allies will be sitting on one of the most important pressure points for the region. Saudi Arabia will be in direct line of fire, but more importantly, as China strengthens its grip on the Horn the world’s oil will be up for grabs. Essentially, between the South China Sea and the Red Sea, the CCP will be in near control of the most important shipping lanes in the world.

Israel may be unable to influence Beijing’s policy in Eritrea, but it has excellent relations with the Prime Minister of Ethiopia. It must press upon Addis Ababa the importance of not letting China utilize Ethiopia’s sovereign territory for further control over international oil routes and passageways and ultimately not allowing the Horn of Africa to once again be transformed into a hub of Iranian terrorist activity.

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China Will Be Determining US Middle East Policy Under Biden

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With the establishment of the Abraham Accords, President Trump has made the impossible happen in the Middle East. The accords brought a series of peace and normalization agreements between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain, and even Sudan; along with increased interaction and dialogue with Saudi Arabia.

The question arises, given the potential for an incoming Biden administration – will they continue to support the Abraham Accords?

Publicly, Biden has expressed support for the Abraham Accords in a prepared statement:

“I welcome the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain taking steps to normalize ties with Israel. It is good to see others in the Middle East recognizing Israel and even welcoming it as a partner.”

“A Biden-Harris Administration will build on these steps, challenge other nations to keep pace, and work to leverage these growing ties into progress toward a two-state solution and a more stable, peaceful region.”

At first glance, this is promising, yet as we know “personnel is policy,” so it is important to dig deeper and understand that while publicly Biden will continue to express support for the Abraham Accords, it is the people that are running the actual foreign policy that will drive the actual direction and relationship to the Middle East.

The Biden team is made up of people bent on returning American foreign policy back to the Obama era.

Biden’s pick for Secretary of State, Antony Blinken said that he would “seek to build on the nuclear deal and to make it longer and stronger if Iran returns to strict compliance.”

Jake Sullivan, Biden’s incoming National Security Advisor was also a key architect of the Iran Nuclear Deal, known as the JCPOA. More than that though, Sullivan is known as backer of rapprochement with China and is seen favorably by the Chinese Communist Leadership.

It was Sullivan who said the following on China:

“We need to strike a middle course – one that encourages China’s rise in a manner consistent with an open, fair, rules-based, regional order,” Sullivan said. “This will require care and prudence and strategic foresight, and maybe even more basically it will require sustained attention. It may not have escaped your notice that these are not in ample supply in Washington right now.”

Sullivan has actually blasted the Trump administration over moving the US Embassy to Jerusalem and pulling out of the JCPOA in an interview on CGTN, a Chinese Communist controlled media outlet in December 2017.

“This was a political decision, not a foreign policy decision. This was about Trump and his supporters. It was not about moving the peace process forward. I think Donald Trump has been playing games with the Iran nuclear deal. He’s been raising questions about whether he’s going to stay in or leave. And in doing that, he has created a situation in which the rest of the world is more worried about the risk Washington poses than they are about the risk Tehran poses. And that is not in America’s strategic interest.”

Of course history has proven Sullivan wrong about Trump’s strategy on peace in the Middle East and the need to suck up to China.

Along with the above pro-Iranian-Chinese advisors, Biden has appointed far left and anti-Israel Karine Jean-Pierre as Deputy Communications Director and Linda Thomas-Greenfield a known globalist as UN Ambassador.

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China Will Be Behind Every Biden Decision On Iran And Israel

With Biden’s team clearly sinophilic and internationalist and given the Chinese Communist Party’s coopting of Joe Biden through his son Hunter, it is not far-fetched to see ahead and understand that any foreign policy decision Biden will make in the Middle East would be run through Beijing.

After all, corruption aside, the Biden team believes whole-heartedly in the need for Chinese dominance on the world-stage. Chinese preeminence has been a hallmark in globalist policy for at least two decades and it is certainly a foundational aspect of the incoming Biden administration.

More importantly, for Israel and its newly formed alliance with moderate Sunni Arab countries, Chinese dominance means that a Biden administration would return back to the failed policy of encouraging Iranian dominance in the Middle East.

I wrote the following last week on this issue:

“If Joe Biden holds off President Trump’s legal challenges he will essentially be a compliant partner in allowing the China-Iran Axis to hold sway over the Middle East. It cannot be overstated how much Biden and his team are influenced by the CCP controlled China.”

However, I believe that the issue runs deeper than the words I chose to use there. It seems that Biden’s entire foreign policy will be directly decided by those interests that align with the CCP in Beijing.

Look for a complete partnership in restoring Iranian hegemony over the Persian Gulf as well as a hyper development in China’s Belt and Road Initiative allowing Iran and Pakistan to give the CCP access (militarily) to the Indian Ocean and the Persian Gulf. China is also in dispute with Kenya, with the former looking to exploit its economic investment into Kenya’s port as a means to exert control, as it has done elsewhere.

On all of these and more, the Biden administration will not only stand passively by as CCP run China marches forward, but it appears ready to work with it as Obama did in allowing it to break down what is left of regional sovereignty for these countries.

There is no doubt that Biden’s team sees Israel and the other signees to the Abraham Accords as the “real bad actors” in the region. After all it is Israel and its allies who are actively blocking Iranian expansion in the region – something China wants desperately and which is something the Biden administration is willing to give them.

So while Biden may publicly claim he is pro-Israel or pro the Abraham Accords – his real policy is the opposite. Already, those related to the incoming Biden administration (assuming he is inaugurated) and the former Obama administration are insinuating that is actually Israel that is the terror state.

As has been noted by many the following tweet by John Brennan, Obama’s former CIA director inferring that Israel is the bad actor and terror state in relation to Iran is all anyone needs to know about what is coming.

Given all of the above, after Jan 20th 2021, assuming Biden holds off President Trump in the Electoral College and the President’s many legal challenges, Israel and the moderate Sunni countries will be in the Biden team’s crosshairs. Not because it makes sense or because Biden is really interested in making peace, but because Beijing says so.

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Is Jordan In The Middle Of A Coup?

ArabNN is reporting that the rumors surrounding the disappearance of Jordan’s King are picking up steam as even Eddie Cohen of the Jerusalem Post appears to be confirming them.

Jordanian Opposition Leader Mudar Zahran has been agitating for full Palestinian rights in Jordan. 80 percent of Jordan’s populace are Palestinian Arabs and yet the King and his clan, along with the Muslim Brotherhood have essentially monopolized the country’s wealth and disenfranchised the majority of the populace. There has been growing discontent over the last year and calls for overthrowing the monarchy have grown.

“Jordan is facing unprecedented financial turmoil and COVID 19 death toll is rising at a staggering rate,” Jordanian Opposition Coalition (JOC) Leader Mudar Zahran said. “The ruling Hashemite family has systematically destroyed the country, and because no one has seen him in days, many are now asking: “Where’s Waldo?”

“Abdullah is clearly missing in action, and over 9 million Jordanians are searching for Waldo,” Zahran continued. “One thing is certain, he is running away from his duties, he brought this economic distress upon us, he lied to Jordanians juts three months ago telling them Jordan was almost COVID19 free, and now he left Jordanians to face their fate, while he is refusing to face the music.”

Intelligence website JAFAJ states the following:

“While the king’s whereabouts and conditions remain a mystery, Uncle Hassan has been frantically trying to fill the vacuum left by Abdullah’s absence, while drumming up political support.”

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How Does Jordanian Uncertainty Affect Israel

Israel has spent years propping up the Hashemite family in Jordan, to the point where despite King Abdullah’s partnership with Muslim Brotherhood terrorists, Israel still includes the monarchy in its security umbrella.

The thought has always been that despite the King’s two-faced policy, his “Kingdom” was necessary to provide a buffer to first protect against Iraq and then later Iran. Yet, with the recent deal between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain, as well as the growing possibility of Saudi Arabia, Jordan’s Monarchy has become a liability.

Is Saudi Arabia Helping To Depose the “Royal Family?”

There has been a long standing feud between the Hashemite and Saudi royal families dating back to when the Hashemites lived in what is now Saudi Arabia. The British placated the Hashemites by giving them what is today Jordan, leaving the Saudis in charge of the Arabian peninsula. Both dynasties have laid claim to being descended from Muhammed and both Kingdoms claim custodian over major shrines special to Islam. In Jordan’s case they control the management of the Temple Mount, which is within Israel’s security apparatus and sovereignty.

The last point is important and must be taken into account onto why Saudi Arabia sees the need to finally depose the Hashemites once and for all. The Hashemite claim to leadership of the Islamic world is essentially a farce. It resets on the fact that after 1967 the Israeli government was weak and allowed the Waqf to remain in charge. Thats it. Thats the whole claim King Abduallah and his family have.

The Saudis control Mecca and Medina, the two holist sites in Islam. They are a power player in the Middle East and see themselves as the rightful leaders of the Muslim world. Most of the world regards them that way as well.

So what is their interest in toppling the Jordanian Monarchy?

Simply put – peace.

With 80 percent of the Jordanian population made up of Palestinians and these Palestinians needing a State, the Saudis can ink a final deal between a Palestinian Jordan and Israel while signing a peace agreement themselves with the Jewish State. The Saudis would see their family replacing the Waqf as custodians of the Dome of the Rock and Al Aqsa and do away with a wannabe king who finds the Muslim Brotherhood in direct contravention of both American policy and Saudi interests.

So is Jordan’s King now on the way out? If he is, the Saudis are the most probable reason why – and that is a good thing for Israel and peace in the Middle East.

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Lead Iranian Nuclear Scientist Assassinated, But Did Israel Really Do It?

Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the Iranian scientist considered to be the mastermind behind Iran’s nuclear weapons program was gunned down Friday in Tehran.

Iran wasted no time blaming Israel: “Once again, the evil hands of global arrogance and the Zionist mercenaries were stained with the blood of an Iranian son,” Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said during a cabinet meeting early Saturday.

This was no doubt a major blow to Iran. This was on par with the Trump Administration’s targeted killing of arch Iranian terrorist Qasem Soleimani last year.

So while Israel is assuming there will be an Iranian response and rightfully raising alert levels at embassies around the world, the real question is – did Israel actually pull off such a high level assassination?

“I have no clue who did it. It’s not that my lips are sealed because I’m being responsible, I really have no clue,” Hanegbi, a confidant of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, told Meet the Press, Israel political TV show.

However, Prime Minister Netanyahu indicated the opposite on a video he posted on Facebook after the assassination: “I did a lot of things this week, not everything can be told.”

The truth is, while it is easy to believe that the Mossad has a team on the ground in Iran, it is also far more possible that Israel has made inroads into some of the non-Persian ethnic groups agitating against Iran and with their help have been able to penetrate deep within the Iranian security services in order to pull this attack off

Although the Mossad was directly involved in 2018, when it was able to break into Iran’s nuclear archives and remove 55,000 paper files and 183 CDs with another 55,000 files on them. No one doubts the Mossad’s prowess, but these sorts of attacks involving moving targets, explosives and gunmen are nearly impossible to pull off unless there was wide spread involvement by locals.

What Happens If They Never Left

When viewing the sorts of operations that the Mossad carries out, especially visa vi Iran, it must be assumed there is not one team who enters Iran, carries out the operation and then leaves. Rather, there is an obvious need for a team to remain there. Yet, Iranian intelligence is very good and so how is it possible this team has not been found yet?

Two possibilities come to mind.

Either the Mossad team is so good it just blends into the populace – disguised and all – or it is only one part of the team. The other part as mentioned above is made up of indigenous ethnic groups currently occupied by Iran.

Wikipedia

Above is a map detailing the various minority groups within Iran. It has long been known that the Kurds to the West and Baluchs to the South East are itching for independence. Any Mossad team could either come and go through KDP run Kurdistan into Western Iran or easily just blend into the local population there.

Furthermore, the Mossad may not be carrying out these sorts of assassinations, but rather work with disaffected groups by offering intelligence.

Iranian Kurds have been actively trying to separate since 1918. As recent as 2016 there have been armed clashes between Iranian Kurdish separatists and the Iranian Armed Forces. It would not be a stretch for any of these resistant groups to be fighting along side Western intelligence against Iran.

Either way, the actual success of the operation shows Iran’s intelligence services are lagging behind, not only because the Mossad has penetrated high enough up to be able to successfully carry out this operation, but because it has more than likely coopted locals to help it out.

Iran claims it will retaliate for the assassination of its top scientist, but it may not have much of a choice but to grit its teeth and focus on internal opposition instead.

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In Order To Stop China, Trump Must Go Through Iran

President Trump has largely used his four years as president to refrain from foreign interference and regime change that had marked both President Bush’s and Obama’s foreign policies.

However, there are two areas where Trump has successfully held the line and utilized a strong approach in order to wield results.

Over the last four years we have seen the President use the might of the USA and proper diplomacy to push back on both Iran and China.

He has been emphatic on holding Iran accountable for its drive towards nuclear weapons and its strategic regional destabilization activities, namely in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen.

On China, he pushed back using tariffs and held strong during trade negotiations. Furthermore, he strengthened America’s relationship with India, Japan, and others directly surrounding China.

With all of this in mind, it is important to understand the relationship these two American adversaries have. By doing so, one can understand why the potential for an attack on Iran before Biden takes over has merit.

The Growing Iran-China Partnership

What was once only a geopolitical convenience, both countries have now seen the necessity behind their growing alliance.

So why do these two countries form such a symbiotic relationship?

Firstly, China’s energy needs are one of the largest in the world. The challenge for China is that its domestic source of oil or gas no longer covers its needs. It relies heavily energy imports.

So where does it import oil and gas from?

Source: The Observatory of Economic Complexity

On the face of it, China’s energy imports are pretty varied. However, there is another component, which makes Iran a key part to China’s equation. This is the Belt and Road initiative. China sees Iran as a key component in its ability to influence the Middle East. After all, while China may get energy from Iraq, Oman, and Kuwait, these countries are heavily influenced by policy decisions on Iran.

As an example, Oman has yet to join the Abraham Accords, because it fears retribution from Iran. Kuwait is heavily Shiite and although dislikes Iran, it is equally threatened by them. The same goes for Shiite controlled Iraq as well as part of the Kurdish North.

The latest cooperation agreement signed between Iran and China in June illustrates this. The cooperation agreement was further cemented this past October with a visit by Iranian foreign minister Javad Zarif.

While the agreement focuses on economic and cultural ties, the use “terrorism” as a reason to partner together for security reasons or join support in international bodies should be understood as far more than just passive cooperation. Furthermore, the agreement stipulates China’s resolve to back the JCPOA nuclear deal and also help Iran with energy development, including nuclear.

While China has followed a policy of non-intervention in the Middle East, its growing alliance with Iran allows it to partner with someone who for its own reasons will be able to enforce Chinese hegemony in the Persian Gulf and over the rest of the region, thus ensuring a steady source of energy for years to come for Beijing.

In turn, Iran can rely on Chinese backing, both militarily and diplomatically for its drive to conquer Israel and the Sunni world.

Biden Will Strengthen The Chinese-Iranian Axis

If Joe Biden hold off President Trump’s legal challenges he will essentially be a compliant partner in allowing the China-Iran Axis to hold sway over the Middle East. It cannot be overstated how much Biden and his team are influenced by the CCP controlled China.

Jake Sullivan, Biden’s potential National Security Advisor was noted as saying that China’s rise is a foreign policy success.

He said the following in full remarks: “We helped create the conditions of stability and security in East Asia that allowed China to have this remarkable economic rise. So that it’s rising, in a way, is not the failure of American foreign policy; it’s the success of creating those stable conditions.”

Biden has issued positive statements as well about China’s rise.

Iran’s ability to act as China’s forward base and arm in the Middle East is perhaps Trump’s actual reason for considering a limited but serious strike on the Islamic Republic. Any action President Trump carries out or allows the new Israel-Sunni Alliance to carry out before he potentially leaves in January should be seen through a prism that takes China into it as well.

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PREPARING FOR BIDEN: Netanyahu and Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Meet To Plan Next Moves

The news is awash with rumors of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s face to face meeting with Muhamed bin Salman, the Saudi Crown Prince, also known as MBS. Now confirmed, the meeting took place on Sunday in the desert city of Neom.

Under construction as a $500 billion showcase of technological innovation, the Israeli leader spent nearly five hours with MBS, Saudi Arabia’s heir to the throne. The Prime Minister was joined by U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Mossad Director Yossi Cohen.

While the setting of Neom was a fitting place for this groundbreaking meeting, it was not the technology or environmental aspects of Neom the two leaders were discussing. More than likely, they were discussing the incoming Biden administration and the dangers it brings to the region.

It is also true that with less than two months left to President Trump’s term full normalization may be on the table. Such a move is necessary in order to block the potential return of the JCPOA (Iranian nuclear deal), which threatens the safety of both the Sunni Arab Gulf States and Israel.

However, the JCPOA is only one worry. The immediate change in status for Iran in dealing with the White House is what scares Israel and its new Arab allies. Iran, backed by China and a compliant America will be able to demonize the Persian Gulf and beyond.

Biden’s incoming administration is more like a third term for Obama and it is this third term, which seeks to truly transform the world. From faux climate change to reengaging China and Iran, the Deep State and globalists who now find themselves moments away from active control of the USA are salivating for the opportunity to push back on Israel and the Saudi-UAE-Bahrain alliance.

Remember, it was the Obama administration who enabled ISIS and thus created a vacuum of power in Iraq that allowed Iran to march into.

Antony Blinken is Only Tip Of The Iceberg

Antony Blinken the incoming Secretary of State was one of the backers and architects of the JCPOA. He will have full control of America’s foreign policy and appears ready to reengage with Iran. With Biden, largely expected to take a back seat to decision making, Blinken’s role will be magnified.

Another Obama-Clinton retread is Jack Sullivan, who served as Deputy Chief of Staff for Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Biden has appointed him as incoming Director of the National Security Advisor (NSA).

Finally (at least for now), Avril Haines who worked at the White House starting in 2010 as a national security lawyer and then in 2013, then CIA Director John Brennan appointed her deputy director for the CIA. Brennan was the one who brought us drone assassinations, an expanded Iran, and a decimated Libya among other things.

The above appointments and more show which direction the Biden team plans on heading on Jan. 20th.

Bibi and MBS Building An Alliance

The 1 hour trip to Neom was in essence a path forward for both Israel and Saudi Arabia. The ascendancy of Biden to President means a possible reversal of the gains the Trump Administration accomplished. This is why Israel and Saudi Arabia may have no choice but to forge a path together and build a new Middle East with or without America. By doing so, they will have the ability to hold back the Mullahs and in many ways the coming Biden Administration.