Author: Gavriel Dan

Gavriel Dan spent a number of years covering social movements in Israel, the wider middle east and Europe. He is considered an expert in embedding himself with various groups and causes in order to get accurate and rich information.
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Trump-Putin Deal on Syria May Bring War Closer With Israel

While the agreement concerning Syria made between Trump and Putin in Vietnam has been touted by almost everyone as the beginning of closure to the Syrian Civil War, it may have achieved little more than a huge win for the Russian-Iranian-Syrian axis.

The joint statement  between the US and Russia says the following:

President Trump and President Putin confirmed the importance of de-escalation areas as an interim step to reduce violence in Syria, enforce ceasefire agreements, facilitate unhindered humanitarian access, and set the conditions for the ultimate political solution to the conflict. They reviewed progress on the ceasefire in southwest Syria that was finalized the last time the two Presidents met in Hamburg, Germany on July 7, 2017. The two presidents, today, welcomed the Memorandum of Principles concluded in Amman, Jordan, on November 8, 2017, between the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, the Russian Federation, and the United States of America. This Memorandum reinforces the success of the ceasefire initiative, to include the reduction, and ultimate elimination of foreign forces and foreign fighters from the area to ensure a more sustainable peace. Monitoring this ceasefire arrangement will continue to take place through the Amman Monitoring Center, with participation by expert teams from the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, the Russian Federation, and the United States.

It is worth pointing out that although one of the deconfliction zones buttresses Israel’s Golan Heights, they are not mentioned as one of the parties that will observe whether or not the deconfliction mechanism is working. Furthermore, Syrian and Russian troops can move freely within the deconfliction zones, which are about 20km in width. Outside the deconfliction zones Iranian and Hezbollah troops can move with ease.

Essentially, the arrangement ensures a return of the Syrian regime now overtly backed by Russia to Israel’s border, while giving Iran and Hezbollah a free pass to build up their presence outside the deconfliction zone. The arrangement, while sounding good on paper, actually encourages conflict between Israel and Iran/Hezbollah.

With Israel and the Sunni alliance beginning to push back against the growing Iranian threat, any weakening of their position against Iran will seemingly not be tolerated.  An Iranian/Hezbollah force allowed to build up their presence 20km from Israel will most likely not be tolerated.

Beyond Negotiations

Israel has taken a more passive route when it has come to the American-Russian agreements on the deconfliction zones, but this strategy has clearly failed. What is left is for the Israeli government to take a proactive policy in destroying Iranian and Hezbollah forces that are busy preparing to attack Israel.

Israel will only be taken seriously when it acts on its own.  Until then, the Trump-Putin agreement has created a military nightmare for Israel that brings the region closer to war, not farther away.

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War In Israel’s North Draws Close As Syrian Regime Advances in Beit Jinn

According to sources in Syria, the Syrian Regime has made headway with its war on ISIS and is advancing within the Beit Jinn area.  This brings it closer to the Golan DMZ.

 

Led by their elite Ghiath Forces, the Syrian Army began the assault by firing several surface-to-ground missiles towards the Jihadist strong holds. Attack choppers continually attacked the jihadist positions at the farms north of Beit Jinn.

With most reports indicating that the Jihadist group Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham was losing control, this is a double edge sword as far as Israel is concerned.  While Israel does not want ISIS on its border, it also does not want the Syria Regime, which now acts as an enabler for Iran to have access to the Golan border as well.

This development places the decision to send the IDF to at least secure the Druze village of Hader even more critical than it was at the end of the last week.

With the Syria-Iran-Russia axis on the move against both Saudi Arabia and Israel, the IDF has little time for a final decision on whether or not time has come to directly face Syria itself.

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Russia and Iran Strike a Deal, Leaving Israel Cornerned

The tension in the region seemed to spike when Israel’s airforce was said to have fired 7 missiles at a weapons depot near Homs, Syria.  This occurred the same day Putin was wrapping up meetings with Iranian leader the Ayatollah Khameini.

The meeting appears to be fruitful in the sense that Iran is willing to follow Putin’s line on the Middle East.

The Tehran Times said the following about Putin’s statements at the meeting:

Putin also said Russia considers Iran as a “strategic partner” and “great neighbor” and that Moscow will use every opportunity to strengthen inclusive ties with Tehran.

Putin also praised cooperation between Russia and Iran in Syria, saying it has produced good results. He also said the two countries should go ahead with their struggle against terrorism in Syria and simultaneously help facilitate a political process for the resolution of the conflict between the Syrian government and armed opposition groups.

Also at the meeting the Khameini said:

“America is the number one enemy of our nation,” Reuters quoted Khamenei as saying. “We will never accept their bullying over the nuclear deal. They are using all the wickedness they can muster to destroy the fruit of the nuclear talks.”

Putin appears to be taking up the leadership mantle and Iran has decided to follow suit. Although Putin puts trust in one, Iran is willing to play to Russia’s tune as long as they get to take on Israel.

With Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria, and Iran all pining to take on Israel, Russia’s tightening grip on the Middle East paints an ominous future for Israel and others not willing to live under the thumb of Russia.

For its part, the US is drifting away from being a reliable partner seemingly content to nurse its wounds rather than defend its interests. This leaves Israel to fend for itself or make a bad deal with Putin.

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Israel Breaks with US and EU, Stays Neutral on Catalonia

In a surprise break with Western policy, Israel has decided to stay neutral on whether to support the break away region in its fight for independence from Spain or back Spain’s request to come out clearly against Catalonia.  Israeli media is reporting that the stance is in reaction to Spain’s antagonistic policy against Israel in international forums.

Yet, an independent Catalonia is not necessarily an assured supporter of Israel since Barcelona is one of 50 EU cities that supports BDS. If this is the case, what does Israel gain by staying neutral?

Sending a Subtle Message 

With the increased chaos in the Middle East, coupled with a seeming lack of foreign policy direction from the Trump Administration, Israel’s stance on Catalonia is a subtle message to the West, that when it comes to foreign policy decisions, it reserves the right to go it alone.

A neutral decision on Catalonia may not amount to much, but add that into the fact that Israel bombed a Hamas weapons tunnel against the wishes of the US, and its open support for Kurdish independence means that Israel’s government is increasingly serious about a lack of US strategy in the region.

With the region in turmoil, Israel’s message is that the West must ante up or lose influence permanently in the Middle East.

 

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Who Is Trying to Stall the Greater Jerusalem Bill?

0As of late last week, the cabinet was scheduled to discuss and push forward the landmark Greater Jerusalem Bill this week. Yet, last night Prime Minister Netanyahu unexpectedly took the bill off the table citing the need to consult with America first.

The Prime Minister said the following: “We are in contact with the Americans; the Americans turned to us seeking to understand the essence of the Law. As we have cooperated with them so far, it is worthwhile talking with them and coordinating them. We are working to promote and develop settlement rather than to promote other considerations.”

However, Transportation Minister Yisrael Katz insisted the bill we brought up today.

“This is a historic law that will guarantee the Jewish majority in Jerusalem and strengthen our hold on the city.”

Despite the Prime Minister’s rhetoric, the Americans do not seem phased by the bill, which begs the question of who really is behind the stalling of the Greater Jerusalem Bill?

Bibi Netanyahu has long derided sudden changes in the status quo.  He like manageable situations and although he is not particularly against the Greater Jerusalem Bill his in ability to carve a new paradigm under the Trump administration is increasingly leaving him behind his own Likud Colleagues and other right-wing parties.  Netanyahu’s insistence to clear the move by the Americans is another sign of his disconnect with the fast pace of actual change on the ground.  Israelis have by and large moved beyond the conflict with the “Palestinians” and by doing so understand the need to create a new bottom up approach that includes safeguarding Jerusalem and the Jewish communities throughout Judea and Samaria.

Now where is this more clear than the new Labor leader Avi Gabbai’s courting of the right-wing by stating “I will not remove communities in Judea and Samaria.”

So Does Bibi Want to Annex or Not? 

The Prime Minister has been very clear for 15 years that he views the solution to the Israel-“Palestinian” dispute within the guise of Lichtenstein or Luxembourg.  This would essentially mean a Palestinian State in area A and B, but with no real need to have an army since its security is given over to Israel. It would seem that for Bibi, one can have overlapping sovereignties within the same land similar to certain areas of Europe since the final agreement would leave “Palestine” confederated to Israel.

This is ultimately why the Prime Minister relishes the status quo. Yet, reactions by the ultra-orthodox over Shabbat desecration and Jewish Home’s response to the lack of movement over the Greater Jerusalem bill as well as a bill cancelling disengagement may force Bibi to break the status quo in order to stave off new elections.

Throwing his coalition issues back at Trump may work in the short-term, but Israel needs to move forward in annexing municipalities in order to properly administer the Jewish population in and around Jerusalem will not go away. The future is catching up with Netanyahu and his inability to part with the status quo maybe his undoing.

 

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Is War Coming to the Golan?

Syrian Regime forces fired three missiles into the Golan Heights on Saturday.  Israel immediately destroyed the artillery unit responsible for the fire. Although the official response from the IDF was that the projectiles were merily just stray missiles that spilled over from the Syrian Civil War, experts in the military indicate that these three missiles were very different and seemingly fired intentionally, which according to sources would be a first in the Syrian Civil War.

The intentional firing of missiles represents a turning point in the Syrian Civil War as the regime now feels emboldened by its gains in beginning closure on what had been a near defeat of Assad before Russia entered the war. Iran’s occupation of Kirkuk, a Kurdish city in Iraq has also showed Assad that nothing seems to be able to stop the Iran-Syria alliance.

Syria’s goal is to make it clear that the regime has outlived Ehud Barak, Israel’s former Prim Minister’s statement when he predicted that Assad was close to falling numerous times. In a sense, the three missiles were meant for him and most of Israel’s security establishment who counted on Assad fading and a more pro-Israel leader taking over.

These three missiles may in fact be the beginning of something much larger.  The coming conflict will set the region ablaze by pitting Iran, Hezbollah, and Syria against their neighbors. Their goal is to take the Golan and Tiberius. The missile attack is a warning that it in fact can already happen.

 

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Israel Hits Back at Syria after Regime Opens Fire on Israeli Aircraft

Syrian surface to air batteries opened fire on a Israeli jets as they were conducting a routine flight over Southern Lebanon earlier today.

The aircraft returned fire destroying the missile battery.  With the region inching towards war, the Syrian regime may be trying to heat up Israel’s Northern border. With rocket attacks from the Sinai last night and today’s Northern incident, Syria and Hezbollah appear to be ready to push towards Israel as the Syrian conflict winds down.

Given the events between Kurdistan and the Iranian affiliated Iraqi army, Iran’s proxies appear to have a ree light to mke a move against Israel.

 

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LEFT WING LOSES IT: Calls Rabbi a KKK Supporter

Rabbi Ben Packer

This past Thursday the Dutch funded hate blog, the Electronic Intifada published a hit piece against Rabbi Ben Packer of the Old City, claiming he was in fact a KKK supporter.

“Packer’s response to last month’s violence in his home state of Virginia suggests he may have a soft spot for the Ku Klux Klan,” wrote Michael F. Brown, the author of the Electronic Intifada article.

Of course Brown uses Rabbi Packer’s own statements out of context, culling posts off of Facebook and leaving out vital content that surrounded them.

All of this would be just another left-wing rant if it was not aimed at a Rabbi that focuses on bringing young men closer to their Jewish roots as well as giving lone soldiers a place to stay and relax. The house is famously known as the Jerusalem Heritage House.

Rabbi Packer is also heavily involved with reclaiming stolen Jewish property, whose current Arab occupants have more than often been families that have squatted in the houses since the Jordanians expelled Jews from Jerusalem in 1948. In fact many of these houses saw their original Jewish owners chased from them in the British backed Arab riots in the 1920’s and 1930’s.

Rabbi Ben Packer and many other activists help raise funds , renovate, and even send younger people to live in the houses until appropriate measures can be taken by the government. Last week as we wrote, Jewish residents of Jerusalem with the help Israel Land Fund’s Councilman Aryeh King moved into a newly reacquired property in Jerusalem’s Shimon HaTzadik/Nachalat Shimon (Sheikh Jarrah) neighborhood on Monday morning. The Electronic Intifada in its criticism of Rabbi Ben Packer claimed this was proof of his support for ethnic cleansing.

Ben Packer, a US-born rabbi, is helping to push Palestinians out of their homes.

Last week, the Shamasneh family was evicted from a house where family members had lived for more than 50 years in the Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood of occupied East Jerusalem.

Packer, who runs a hostel in Jerusalem’s Old City, swiftly welcomed the eviction. Writing on Facebook, he statedthat “our guys were there to help move out the Arabs’ stuff and are now helping to guard the property.”

Packer did not respond to a request asking what he meant by the phrase “our guys” and if staff or residents in his hostel – the Jerusalem Heritage House – had assisted the eviction.

Notorious political activist Arieh King – who sits on the Israeli-run Jerusalem City Council – was instrumental in securing the eviction. King regards Palestinians as “squatters” in Jerusalem and, backed by US donors, has been trying to force their removal. The settlement activities which he undertakes are all illegal under international law.

The article continued and claimed that Rabbi Packer supports “ethnic cleansing” of “Palestinians.” The only problem with all of this is, the only group of people who supported ethnic cleansing were the “Palestinian” Arabs themselves. In the 1920’s and 1930’s they drove out what was once majority Jewish neighborhoods in Jerusalem. These Arabs and their descendents still squat in these properties today.

What Rabbi Ben Packer and Aryeh King are doing, is not only just, but acts as a reminder that the Jewish people have returned home and don’t plan on leaving again.

His students agree. One anonymous student posted on Facebook the following:

“I spent a weekend at the Jerusalem Heritage House while extending my birthright adventure a few years ago (2013). It was one of the highlights of my time in Israel. I vividly remember walking down to the Western Wall on Shabbat and then breaking out to various Shabbat dinners; it was magnificent.”

Another student, Shaul Gheblikian, who currently lives in Beit Esther Brenner near the Lions Gate had this to say about Rabbi Ben Packer:

“Rabbi Packer and the Heritage House were an integral part of the success of being able to live where I do. He provided me with a refrigerator, closet, bed, bedding and a washing machine. These were not just good quality items I needed, but items I couldn’t afford myself. All given with a genuine smile. Many thanks to Rabbi Packer and the Heritage House. May Hashem bless you.”

As long as the left, whether in America, or in Israel continue to attempt to shame their opponents instead of engaging in honest discussions, they will be their own worst enemy.

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Can Israel Save the Saudi Royal Family From Itself?

Rumors have been swirling over the past few days about what appears to be a secret visit by the Saudi Crown Prince to Israel.

“A prince from the Royal Court visited the country in secret over the past few days and discussed the idea of pushing regional peace forward with a number of senior Israeli officials,” the IBC reported, citing the Russian Sputnik media outlet.

This rumor was further strengthened by both Arab media and Israeli media claims.  While it is highly doubtful that the Saudi Crown Prince actually made a secret visit to Israel, the idea that the Saudis are busy trying to find a way to strengthen ties with Israel is not beyond the pale of reason.

The Saudi Royal Family is in the middle of a serious transition away from their terrorist backing past. Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman is a far more worldly personality than his predecessors and sees his role as steering the Kingdom away from the wahhabism it has been associated with.

Despite his growing power there are many leaders within the Saudi Kingdom who are opposed to the many changes that the Crown Prince is trying to bring to the Kingdom.  Although the traditional leadership has allowed to back channel covert relations with Israel, these have been for the sole purpose of pushing back on Iran. The Crown Prince seems to be pushing for a far more open relationship.

Trump: Saudi Arabia has a “very positive” feeling toward Israel 

President Donald Trump made history in his foreign trip to Saudi Arabia and Israel, by forcing the Saudis to allow Air Force 1 to fly directly from Riyadh to Israel. The meetings in Riyadh left the President with the impression that the Saudis are now willing to open to the point where he made the now famous line: “Saudi Arabia has a ‘very positive’ feeling toward Israel.”

So the question remains why is the Crown Prince so bullish (at least behind the scenes still) on forging a relationship that goes beyond defense with Israel?

The answer the lies in his realization that not only is Israel not going anyway, but it is the key for the Sunni Arab states to connect in a far more broad way to the wider world.  While the Sunni block has been busy fomenting jihadism and selling oil, Israel has been developed into a global leader in innovation that has growing connections to India, China, Africa, and other developing regions.  Not to mention its reputation as a leader in military technologies.

With jihadism becoming dangerous to its own masters and oil running out, the Crown Prince knows he must pivot and change in order to survive. While peace between Israel and the “Palestinians” remains elusive, peace between Saudi Arabia and Israel may very well reshape the Middle East in a way that can change the nature of Israel’s relationship to the Sunni world.

 

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BREAKING: Israel Strikes Syrian Chemical Weapons, Assad Threatens to Retaliate

The Syrian military threatened a harsh response to Israel’s alleged attack on their chemical weapons facility near Massyaf in the Hama countryside.  The attack occurred at 2:42 AM from Lebanese airspace.

The SANA news service published the following Syrian military statement:

“This aggression comes in a desperate attempt to raise the collapsed morale of the ISIS terrorists after the sweeping victories achieved by the Syrian Arab Army against terrorism at more than one front, and it affirms the direct support provided by the Israeli entity to the ISIS and other terrorist organizations,” the Army Command said in a statement.

Israel warned Putin when Bibi visited the Russian leader in Sochi that he would not tolerate the Syrian regime and Iran closing in on Israel’s Golan border.  This attack is the first time Israel has struck since their meeting.

SANA reported the Syrian Military “warned against the dangerous repercussions of such hostile acts on the security and stability of the region.”

Amos Yadlin a retired Israeli General and now the Executive Director of Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) released the following Tweets:

 

Yadlin’s hint that either Israel had tacit approval to fly through Russian installed radar systems or has found a way to evade detection should not be lost on anyone.  This point is key to understanding Israel’s ability to keep an edge in the next war which appears to be fast approaching.

The fact is the attack took place North of Lebanon, so if it was indeed Israel, Russia must have known about it and if Russia knew about, why would they let Israel bomb Syria?

The answer lies in Putin’s balance strategy which involves playing Syria and Israel off each other. This does not mean Israel has a green light.  Actually, the opposite is true.  Israel must go to Putin to ask permission when it needs to hit a Syrian facility.

The fact is, most observers bought into the viewpoint that Bibi got nothing from Putin in Sochi.  Russia’s disinformation magazine Pravda indicated this:

“According to eyewitnesses of the open part of the talks, the Israeli prime minister was too emotional and at times even close to panic. He described a picture of the apocalypse to the Russian president that the world may see if no efforts are taken to contain Iran, which, as Netanyahu believes, is determined to destroy Israel.”

Yet, the strike in the early morning hours so close to Latkia and near Homs indicates Putin has held true to his policy of keeping strategic balance in the region. The real question is: Will this would also apply to Iranian forces near the Golan?

Putin continues to play puppet master in the Levant, but his puppeteering is setting up the region for all out war. Will this give Putin the chance to play peacemaker?