Author: Micha Gefen

Micha is a government policy analyst for Israel Rising.
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Kurdistan Rising as ISIS Falls Apart

No matter whose propaganda one believes on the nature of ISIS’s demise, the wannabe caliphate is falling apart. With its collapse, their capital in Raqqa is under siege by the US backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which is dominated by the powerful YPG Syrian Kurdish militia allied with Syrian Arabs. The YPG’s forces are rapidly taking control of much of Northern Syria and moving to link directly with the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) in Iraq.

This entire scenario is of course the opposite outcome that Turkey wanted when they unleashed ISIS into Syria and Iraq to start with.  Turkey wanted ISIS to create chaos so Turkish forces could go in and not only clean up the radical Islamists, but wipe out the burgeoning Kurdish entity in Iraq.  Not only has the KRG grown in strength, but the Syrian Kurds have become the main power broker in Syria.

With the US funding and training the YPG militias, Turkey has grown increasingly incensed with the Trump administration. Not only will a defacto Kurdish State arise along its Southern border, this state will essentially be backed by the US. Erdogan, the Turkish president has long opposed any Kurdish entity due to the inspiration it will give to the Kurds in Turkey, who form 10% of the Turkish population and a solid block in the country’s Southern regions.

The US appears aware of the inevitability of an independent Kurdistan.

It was reported in the news last week that the Director of the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) Vincent Stewart told senators during a hearing that the question of independence for the Kurdistan Region is to be expected.

“Kurdish independence is on a trajectory where it is probably not if but when. And it will complicate the situation unless there’s an agreement in Baghdad,” Lt. Gen. Stewart said last Tuesday.

As Kurdistan continues to rise to fill the void left by the ravages of ISIS, a new conflict is about to begin.  Turkey will not sit idly by and allow the very people they have oppressed for generations rise up against them.  The Trump administration will have to choose between a pseudo ally in Turkey or rectify past sell outs of the Kurds committed by both George Bushes and Bill Clinton by allowing a free Kurdistan to solidify its control over its ancient homeland.

United Kurdistan (Image source: Ferhates/Wiki)

 

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The Five Things That May Make Trump’s Push For Peace Not So Crazy

Although most observers think Trump’s drive for peace between Israel and the “Palestinians” is far fetched, there are indications that he may not be so crazy after all.

 

Iran looms over both Israel and the Gulf Sunni Arabs

With the Iranian army now on the door step of Northern Israel as well as taking over Southern Iraq and menacing the Gulf Arabs, the Sunni Arabs understand that Israel needs to eb openly included in dealing with this menace.

Sunni Oil Leverage is Over

With increased shale oil production and alternative energy sources overtaking foreign oil imports in the USA, American dependency on foreign oil is waning.  This means that Arab oil holds less sway on geo-political issues.  Given this the Arab countries are willing to cut a deal now before all of their influence if finished.

Israel Has Become a Tech Super Power

While the Arab states relied on oil to shape their economies, Israel invested in hi-tech and has now become a global center for technology and innovation exporter.  This has allowed it to develop relationships with countries like China and India giving it more clout on the international arena.

Palestinians Have Become Annoying to Everyone

As the Arab leaders in the region realize that extremism has become a threat to their very existence, the Palestinians are increasingly seen as obstinate in their demands which are becoming stuck in the past.  For the Saudis and the Gulf States, economy and security far outweigh the need to placate the Palestinian street.

Abbas Needs a Deal Before He Becomes Irrelevant

With each passing year Abbas and the Palestinian Authority become increasingly irrelevant. Their people are fed up and many are leaving.  The PA is ripe with large scale graft and everyone knows it. Without a deal Abbas will be remembered as an  old failure by everyone, most of all the residents of the Palestinian Authority.

With Trump flying Air Force 1 from Riyadh to Israel thus breaking down a major barrier between the two countries as well the President becoming the first sitting President to visit the Western Wall, there appears to be real movement. It can be assumed that Trump is ready to push for a regional framework instead of one that focuses only on the Israeli-Palestinian “conflict.” By placing the regional issues into a broader context, creative solutions to longstanding issues are expecting to be floated.

Trump may not succeed, but his attempt is not built on mere slogans, but rather a confluence of real world issues that are rapidly changing who is friend and who is foe.

 

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Iran Uses Syrian Chaos to Reach Israel

With reports flowing out of Syria that regime forces are close to recapturing Damascus, the situation in the rest of the country remains fluid and chaotic.  So why the fanfare over the successful Damascus operation?  The recapture of Damascus gives the Syrian-Iranian-Russian axis the ability to easily funnel Iranian troops from Shiite areas in Iraq into Syria proper and even up to the Israeli border.

Given the agreement put into place between Russia, Turkey, Syria, and Iran over the four ceasefire zones literally places the border between Jordan and Syria, as well as the Israeli Golan under range of an increasing Iranian troop presence, it is understandable that Israel and even the US is highly reluctant to embrace the agreement signed in Kazakhstan.

With the creation of four safe-zones, the four countries that have signed on have virtually created a no-fly zone for US fighters.  This has implications for two major spheres: Israel and Kurdistan.

Israel has been relying on tacit Russian allowances to fly over and strike shipments from Iran to Hezbollah. It remains to be seen whether Putin will continue to allow this.  Given the fact Iranian troops are increasing their presence on Israel’s Northern border, an absence of this agreement puts Israeli security in jeopardy.

The Turkish ceasefire zones are all focused on forcing the US-back Kurds from the Turkish border.  Without US -air support and supplies, the Kurds can be pushed back.  Unfortunately they have been the best armed force in combating ISIS.  With Kurds being threatened by Turkey, ISIS can and will grow in Northern Syria, after all it was Turkey that had been their original patron.

With Trump distracted in North Korea and domestic troubles, his team has been slow to react to what has become a fait accompli of near Russian-Iranian control over most of Syria. This not only imperils Israel and Kurdistan, but the broader Middle East.

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While North Korea Draws the World’s Attention, Iran Closes in on Israel

With the Russian, Chinese, and American armed forces now converging on North Korea, another front long thought of as the probable catalyst for a potential world war has seemingly grown quiet. Or has it?

While most of the world awaits some sort of climax to the North Korean standoff, there is something precarious growing around Israel’s Northern border.  The Russians have used the North Korean crisis to allow the Iranians and Hezbollah to tighten their grip on Israel’s Golan border. It is no accident that while everyone is focused on staving off a nuclear war on the Korean peninsula, the Turks, Russians, and Iranians have agreed to create safe-zones in Syria.

The Southern most safe zone buttresses the Golan heights allowing for Iranian troops to reach Israeli territory unhindered. Furthermore the agreement which was struck in Kazakhstan last week ensures that US air coverage cannot fly over these zones.  Israel is now essentially on its own.

As we reported in April, the long known alliance between North Korea and Iran has become more apparent as President Trump seems intent on stopping the North Korean regime from creating havoc in Asia. When North Korea starts, Iran always follows.  With the bellicose statements of Kim Jong-un growing more war like by the day there is a distinct possibility, that this has been a pre-planned diversion.  After all Iran seems has been keeping the North Korean economy afloat through the buying of its nuclear technology.  The Obama administration’s cash infusion into Iran has been moved over to North Korea in order to make sure both programs develop without hindrance.

The noose is tightening with Russian approval around Israel.  Putin of course wants Israel to beg for his protection.  Israel seems intent on going it alone. After Trump’s trip to the Middle East expect the shoe to drop. When Trump moves to take out Kim Jong-un, Israel will be on its own.

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[watch] A Palestinian Leader Trump Can Trust?

With May 3rd touted as the date for the face to face meeting between President Trump and Mahmoud Abbas, the Trump administration should watch the above video and find there is a growing movement f Palestinians led by Mudar Zahran, Secretary General of the Jordanian Opposition Coalition that are pushing for Jordan to be recognized as the actual Palestinian homeland.  Trump can choose to meet with an old terrorist murderer and push the same old “peace-process” lies or meet with Zahran a real leader.  The choice is his.

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THE COMING WAR: Iran vs. Israel, North Korea vs. America

With America and North Korea rapidly heading towards a direct conflict, the wider ramifications of such a conflict are far-reaching. Given the fact that North Korea built Syria’s now destroyed nuclear weapons program and continues to aid Iran’s nuclear development, the two programs are linked.

In the coming days as Donald Trump sends more and more firepower to the Korean penninsula, the Iranians will most likely stir up trouble against Israel. Although government officials are insisting that the summer time is likely for renewed hostility between Hamas and Israel, North Korea will likely cause a flare up with Iranian proxies much sooner.

The Iranians will turn Hezbollah loose on Israel as a means of drawing the Trump administration away from full out war with North Korea.  With half of their program under attack in the East, Iran will have nothing to lose against Israel.

Winning is Not So Easy

A North Korean war may end in the North’s defeat, but not without Seoul’s devastation and depending on the time frame Japan’s capital in Tokyo suffering from direct missile hits.

Israel too can repel both Hamas and Hezbollah, but if reports of Hezbollah tunneling and Iranians plans to take the Golan are true, the war will likely cascade into something far more dangerous for Israel’s security.

The above assessment does not count Russia and Chinese involvement in either theater as well as Iranian direct attacks on Sunni states in the Gulf.

Whatever the scenario, the next few days have the potential to trigger an all out war in multiple areas around the globe.

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SYRIA CONFLICT: 59 Missiles That Changed the World

With America firing 59 missiles into Syria as retaliation for Assad’s sarin gas bombing of innocent civilians, the genie is now out of the bottle not to be put back in.

President Trump said the following:

“Using a deadly nerve agent, Assad choked out the life of innocent men, women and children. It was a slow and brutal death for so many, even beautiful babies were cruelly murdered in this very barbaric attack. No child of God should ever suffer such horror.

“I ordered a targeted military strike on the airbase in Syria from where the chemical attack was launched. There can be no dispute that Syria used banned chemical weapons and ignored the urging of the UN Security Council.”

The attack on Syrian targets places the US in direct odds against Russia who has used former President Obama’s lack of an asserted approach in Syria and the rest of the Middle East to enter its forces into Syria, thus prolonging the civil war. If Trump brings American forces into the region again both Russia and Iran are in a far more formidable position than before Obama’s term.

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In response to the attack Russian Prime Minister Medvedev said the US strikes were illegal and were “one step away from military clashes with Russia.” Russia has sent its most advanced Black Sea frigate into the eastern Mediterranean late Friday, putting it into direct confrontation with the same US Navy destroyers which were used to attack Syria.

What’s Next?

Given Putin’s response, direct conflict between the two superpowers seems more and more inevitable. The US does not seem to view this attack as a one-off, but rather the beginning of a serious push back against Iranian and Russian influence in the region.

Moscow has suspended the famous deconfliction hotline and has threatened to retaliate.

Expect both sides to continue to build up their armaments in expectationof a broader conflicts, as well as a more determined Trump that will attempt to push back on Putin and the Iranians.  If there is to be a direct conflict, it will be in Northern Syria with the US building up its arms there.

By reasserting the USA into a Middle East that now has Russia and Iran firmly established within it, Trump’s attack on Syria has changed the world forever.

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MAKING ISRAEL JUDENREIN: Are Trump and Bibi Close to Freezing Jewish Construction Again?

As the vaunted Regional “Peace Deal” appears to be in the process of being cooked up between Bibi Netanyahu and the Trump administration, the question persists why the need to restrict building outside of the generally accepted “settlement” blocs?  Let’s assume for a second that peace is at hand, that the Arabs really will sit down and make peace with Israel, then what would it matter if Jews are living anywhere beyond the arbitrary green line or even the “blocs?”

Israel is a tiny state.  Even with Judea and Samaria added in, the width is about the size of New Jersey’s waste line, not big.  Blocs are a convenient way of expressing areas that are built up, but in most cases “isolated” Jewish communities exist within minutes of the defined “bloc.”  There is no real way to draw the line. Ten years ago no one considered Kochav Yaakov or Ofra North of Jerusalem part of the Greater Jerusalem bloc, but in 2017, most Israelis do.

In a letter to the government the Land of Israel Lobby wrote the following:

“The freeze is illegitimate, not even ‘in the meantime’ or as an ‘interim stage’, and certainly no freeze or construction restrictions outside the blocs,” the letter said. “The bloc plan is the plan of the Palestinian State and there is no justification for a right-wing government to accept it, either temporarily or partially,” the heads of the lobby say.

The Peace Camp Should Stand Against Building Freezes for Jews

Those who genuinely want peace should stand against the Arab demand that Jews refrain from building in any area of their ancestral homeland.  The litmus test for peace is not borders or security, but whether the other side can tolerate the other among them.  The Arabs demand that any future “Palestinian” state be void of Jews or judenrein essentially proves they are not ready for peace.  Furthermore, those in the Israeli government or the USA supporting such ideas must be taken to task for their support for racist and anti-Semitic policies. Whether it is the Trump administration or Bibi’s government contemplating the next “freeze,” they must be told in a serious manner that no peace will come from Jews being told they cannot build simply because they are Jews. After all if another minority would be told they cannot build or own a house simply due to their religious, national, or cultural background, it would be deemed racist.

The Spirit of the Holocaust Has Never Ended

The State of Israel afforded Jews around the world an opportunity to shrug the millennia of exile and rebuild their nation inside their ancestral homeland.  The Holocaust, encapsulated by the Final Solution was just the most extreme measure of Hitler’s desire to make Europe judenrein or free of Jews.  Construction freezes for Jews only is denying the Jewish people’s right to self determination as Jews.  True, there are no gas chambers or crematorium’s waiting for the Jewish Nation these days, but the spirit of judenrein continues unabated from Hitler to now.  Arab hate for Jewish life in the Levant will not cease by freezing Jews out of their right to build and live as they wish. In fact, the opposite is true. Construction freezes will never satiate the Arab world, for its hate for Jews stems from a deeper place so they will always ask for more, just as Hitler moved from simple deportation to the Final Solution.

In order for there to be peace, all demands on Jews to refrain from building should be dropped and instead demands should be placed on the Arabs to deal with their Jewish neighbors as neighbors and fellow human beings. Until then their is nothing to talk about.

 

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Is War Coming Between Israel and Syria?

With Israel’s strike on a military convoy deep in Syrian territory near Palmyra and Syria’s missile response at the attacking aircraft afterwards, there is a sense that something has changed. The strike was the farthest the IAF has traveled since Russia entered the Syrian conflict two years ago.  Syria’s response was also out of the ordinary.  None of this was lost on Russia’s Putin who summoned the Israeli ambassador to Russia over Israel’s unusual admittance of the strike.

Netanyahu said in footage aired on Israel’s major television networks: “When we identify attempts to transfer advanced weapons to Hezbollah and we have intelligence and it is operationally feasible, we act to prevent it.

“That’s how it was yesterday and that’s how we shall continue to act,” he added.

“We are fully determined and the evidence of that it that we are acting. Everybody must take that into account — everybody.”

The Times of Israel reported the following:

Assaf Orion, senior research fellow at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, said Syria’s response was a “significant” shift.

Until now, he said, when Israel attacked Hezbollah convoys there, it “usually went without a response or with an insignificant response from the Syrian side.”

“[With this attack] the Syrian regime is trying to tell Israel it can’t stand it any more and those actions will not be free of charge.”

President Bashar Assad’s position has been strengthened in recent months with his forces reclaiming all of Syria’s second city Aleppo, as well as enjoying continuing Russian support.

Orion said the Syrian leader was feeling emboldened.

“He is saying: ‘Don’t push me. I am not as weak as I used to be.’”

What’s Next?

With war talk increasing between North Korea and the USA as well as the early euphoria of a potential detente between America and Russia now seemingly having melted away, there is an increased likelihood of a regional war connected to the rising tension between North Korea and America as well as NATO digging in its heels in Eastern Europe.  Hezbollah, Syria, and even Iran are clearly preparing for open conflict with Israel.  Up until now Russia has tried to keep the sides from attacking one another with giving tacit nods to Israel’s need to stop arms transfers to Hezbollah, but the latest attack being so far in Syria’s territory might have tripped up agreements Bibi had cemented with Putin. Putin sees that Israel’s attacks, however warranted, are getting in the way of his ability to strengthen his position in Syria.

With cold war style alliances once again becoming the norm the risk of war has never been greater. The question now does not seem “if,” but rather “when.”

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Is Palestine in the Works?

Betzalel Smotritch of Bayit Yehudi, a member of Netanyahu’s government took to Facebook yesterday to slam the Prime Minister into working with the Trump administration in setting up the circumstances for a Palestinian State.

“In recent weeks, there have been too many indications that the Prime Minister is quietly cooking up a process that will lead to the establishment of Palestine. All this talk about a ‘deal’ and a regional peace conference, the freezing of construction outside the blocs (those who do not build outside the blocs essentially say that the State of Israel is not going to remain there), and the reports about a ‘deal’ that Trump proposed to Abbas for negotiations in return for a construction freeze; reports in Haaretz on contacts between Netanyahu and Herzog to establish a unity government based on the renewal of the ‘political process’; Netanyahu’s desire to build an ‘Iran bypass route’ with moderate Arab states in which the price Israel will have to pay in order to build this axis will be on the settlement front.”

Smotritch is referring to Trump’s desire to find a workable solution to the perceived Israeli-Palestinian conflict through a regional understanding with the “moderate” Sunni States. The regional solution is something Netanyahu has long advocated for. With Trump’s past hints that this is indeed in the works and his envoy Jason Greenblatt in Israel working on an understanding with Israel on future building within Jewish communities in Judea and Samaria, there appears to be some truth to Smotritch’s claims.

In fact, Trump seems to be far more open on the regional avenue.  In a meeting with Saudi defense minister, Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Trump expressed his “strong desire” to achieve a comprehensive, just and lasting settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

How Does Trump’s Vision Differ From Previous Administrations?

It is clear now that Trump views an Israeli-Palestinian peace accord as vitally important, yet the contours of that agreement remain sketchy.  Trump’s envoy to the region, Jason Greenblatt has done the unprecedented by meeting with leaders from Judea and Samaria during his trip to Israel and Jordan. Whatever the contours, it is clear that the approach is very different from before.  In the past a regional approach had meant that in exchange for destroying flourishing Jewish communities in Judea and Samaria in order to create Palestine, the “moderate” Sunni states would make peace with Israel.  Trump’s vision seems to be different. By not demanding a peace agreement based on the 1948 armistice lines it shifts the paradigm between Israel and the Arab states to something new. The shift is necessary, because without assurances that no Jewish community will be dismantled for “peace” Trump knows Netanyahu will not be able to pass a peace deal in the Knesset.

If Trump changes the focus of a potential accord between Israel and its Arab neighbors, the likelihood of a Palestinian State significantly increases.  Of course, the Palestinian State envisioned may be far closer to Luxembourg than Lebanon and if that’s the case then whose to say the Palestinian Arabs in Judea and Samaria and Jordan will go for it.