END OF NATO: Turkey Bombs US Backed Kurds in Afrin

The Turkish army announced the beginning of “Operation Olive Branch” earlier today (Jan. 20th) and immediately started bombing the Kurdish dominated enclave of Afrin in an attempt to wipe out what they call “terrorists.”  However, the Syrian Kurds make up the majority of the US trained SDF and are heavily armed with American weaponry.  Afrin may be an isolated enclave, but it is backed up by America.

Turkey’s Erdogan insists that once he is done in Afrin he will move to the main part of what the Kurds call Rojava. Rojava and the area the SDF controls is nearly 1/3 of Syria.  The SDF has been the most effective fighting force against ISIS and with both Secretary of State Tillerson and Gen. Mattis announcing the need to keep American forces in Syria after ISIS, the SDF is critical for American influence in a post ISIS Syria.

To this point, Erdogan senses that the SDF and the expanded territory of an autonomous Syrian Kurdistan are a permanent fixture. His invasion of Afrin and Rojava  is serious.

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Will the US Fight Back?

Yes.  The Kurds in Syria are not the KRG in Iraq.  The US government sees the SDF as a critical component of stabalizing Syria in a way that is beneficial to US interests. The US has already provided ManPads to the SDF to knock Turkish planes from the sky.

Turkey may be able to push the Kurds out of Afrin in the early phases, but it will run into heavy resistance as it continues.

Is this the End of NATO?

If there is a direct clash between the US and Turkey, then yes.  The fact is, Turkey has been on its way out of NATO for a while, but this accelerates the pace of Turkey leaving the Cold War relic. Yet, this does not mean Turkey leaving under these auspices is a good thing. However hated Turkey is within the ranks of NATO, a direct clash between Turkey and a fellow member state’s proxy has the potential to shake foundations of NATO.  Of course this is Erdogan’s goal.

Where is Russia?

Putin has already moved his troops and most of his airforce from Afrin as a way to steer clear of the conflict.  Putin’s goal is to allow Turkey and the US backed Kurds to take each other down while Russia cleans up after the mess.  Russia’s secondary goal is splinter NATO as he pushes forward with his expansion.

The Russian Ministry of Defense issued the following statement:

“The command of the Russian group of troops in Syria has taken measures to ensure the security of Russian servicemen located in the district of Afrin, where the Turkish Armed Forces launched a special operation against the Kurdish armed groups,” the statement reads.

The Russians also said that the US supplies of advance weapons to the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) in Syria triggered Turkey’s military operation against the Kurdish militias in Afrin.

Uncontrolled deliveries of modern weapons, including reportedly the deliveries of the man-portable air defense systems, by the Pentagon to the pro-US forces in northern Syria, have contributed to the rapid escalation of tensions in the region and resulted in the launch of a special operation by the Turkish troops,” the ministry said.

In the coming days it will become apparant that NATO, Turkey, and the US backed Kurds are moving the region into an expanded conflict that no one will find a clean way out of.

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Chaos Continues With Turkey Threatening to Invade Syrian Kurdistan

Turkey’s President Erdogan responded to the announcement of the US intention to train a 30,000 strong Syrian Democratic Forces to man the Syrian borders with Turkey and Iraq with increased threats of destroying the Kurdish dominated SDF.

“A country we call an ally is insisting on forming a terror army on our borders,” Erdogan said of the United States in a speech in Ankara. “What can that terror army target but Turkey?”

“Our mission is to strangle it before it’s even born.”

Turkey views the YPG unit which make up the majority of the SDF as an extension of the PKK which Turkey and most countries have labeled a terrorist organization.  However, the US views the SDF as essential to destroying ISIS and stablizing Syria.

Erdogan has utilized the Kurds equal terrorist card numerous times to justify attacking them in Syria and elsewhere.  Yet, the truth is the opposite. It was Erdogan and his family who helped to create and protect ISIS through financial assistance, safe passageways, and emergency medical treatment.

Turkey views the rise of an autonomous Kurdish region in Northern Syria similar to the one in Iraq as an existantial threat.  After all Turkey has occupied the heavily Kurdish areas of South and Southeastern Turkey for centuries.  There are 20 million Kurds in Turkey.

All of this has driven Erdogan to prove that he is indeed serious. Reports from Nusaybinden, Turkey, which borders Afrin have claimed armored vehicles and soldiers now entering the Kurdish controlled area.  Afrin is an isolated enclave and lies to the West of the main SDF areas.  Yet, this first push if successful could very well lead Turkey to try for the main center of the SDF further to the East.

Turkish tanks rolling through Nusaybinden on the way to enter Syria. (nusaybinden.com)

 

With the SDF becoming a main pillar of Washington’s proxy coalition against Iranian expansion in the region, it is hard to see the Trump administration continuing to turn a blind eye to Erdogan’s behavior.

COLD WAR RENEWED: Israel and Kurdish SDF are Now Trump’s Weapons Against Iran

The New Cold War between the USA and Russia-China is beginning to affect the Middle East in ways that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago.  It had been previously believed that the Trump administration would continue to pull back from the Middle East, effectively allowing Putin to deal with ISIS and thus cement his control over the region.  This pullback reached it peak with the failure of the US to pick sides between the Shiite run Iraq and its Kurdish autonomous region over the fate of Kirkuk.

With Iran’s fingerprints increasingly apparent in Iraq and more obvious in Syria, the US government has decided to change course and confront the Shiite menace and its Russian backers with a far more ambitious strategy than ever before.

President Trump, campaigning against direct US involvement in the Middle East has had his team draft a strategic plan that will help a weakened US military confront these strategic threats head on. Two partners are emerging to help the US push back on the strength Russian-Shiite grip over the Middle East.

The first is the Kurdish dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in Northern Syria.  This force is fully US trained and led most of the successful operations against ISIS in the Syrian arena.  The SDF areas border Turkey and reach far South and East as well as Afrin to the West.  The challenge for the Trump administration is to contain Turkey’s threats against the Kurdish positions in Afrin.

Strengthening the view that the US is busy turning the SDF areas into a semi-autonomous Kurdish state in Northern Syria are confirmed reports that the US is busy setting up a 30,000 strong SDF force to deal with border issues.  In an email to Reuters the Coalition’s Press Office said the following:

“Efforts are taken to ensure individuals serve in areas close to their homes. Therefore, the ethnic composition of the force will be relative to the areas in which they serve.”

“More Kurds will serve in the areas in northern Syria. More Arabs will serve in areas along the Euphrates River Valley and along the border with Iraq to the south.”

The rise of the SDF has been a sore spot between the US and Turkey.  The increased shelling of Afrin will inevitably test this relationship at its core.

The second partner is Israel.  Towards the end of Obama’s tenure, Prime Minister Netanyahu decided to approach the growing presence of Russia in the Middle East within the context of neutrality.  Afterall, in the absence of a coherent and clear US policy the Israeli government needed to be allowed a good deal of autonomy in keeping back the growing Iranian and Hezbollah menace.  Putin granted Israel freedom of movement as long the latter checked with him first.

With Putin allowing Iran to build up its presence so close to Israel despite assurances from Moscow, Israel and the Trump administration’s needs have overlapped.  Like the SDF to the North, the Trump administration sees Israel as thee bulwark of its containment strategy against the Russia-Iran axis.  The Jerusalem declaration was the beginning of this consolidation behind Israel’s needs.  This of course effectively buried the Palestinian issue permanently.  Afterall, the Jerusalem announcement triggered the Palestinian’s own self-destruction by their admission.

Palestinian permanent president Mahmoud Abbas said the following at a PLO meeting:

“What would you want if Jerusalem were to be lost? Would you want to make a state with Abu Dis as its capital? That’s what they are offering us now. Abu Dis.”

“We won’t take orders from anyone,” Abbas said. “We told Trump we will never accept his [peace] plan. His ‘deal of the century’ is the slap in the face of the century, and we will not accept it.”

In the same speech Abbas cursed Trump that his house be destroyed and his family thrown out on the street. This was a huge mistake.

By backing out of negotiations the Palestinians have self-buried their own aspirations. Within the context of the New Cold War, this essentially means sidelined indefinitely.  With the New Cold war far more hot than its predecessor, false narratives such as the Palestinians cannot out live the needs of the USA or the Trump administration’s unfolding Middle East strategy.




Iran Infiltrates Israel’s Heartland

The Shin Bet officially confirmed that an advanced Iranian espionage network has been operating in Judea and Samaria, Israel’s Biblical heartland.

Iran enlisted the help of Muhammad Maharma, 29-year-old computer science student from Hebron. Despite being the lead in Israel, the Shin Bet said Maharma received his directions from an Iranian operative in South Africa.

The network had two other members named Dia’a Sarahnehand  Nour Maharma, both 22 and both also from Hebron.

“The operation demonstrates the Iranian involvement in encouraging terror attacks against Israel and also shows the forces being sent by Iran to countries around the world, in order to advance enemy activities against Israel,” the Shin Bet said in a statement.

“The operation demonstrates the Iranian involvement in encouraging terror attacks against Israel.”

According to the Shin-Bet, Muhammad Maharma was enlisted to work for Iran in 2015, by his cousin, Backer Maharma. Backer Maharma moved to South Africa from Hebron where he started working for Iranian intelligence.

“Backer even introduced Muhammad, on a number of occasions, to Iranian officials, some of whom visited [South Africa] from Tehran in order to meet him,” the Shin Bet said.

The Shin-Bet’s  investigation uncovered that South Africa has become  a “significant front for finding, enlisting and deploying agents to Israel and the West Bank” for Iranian intelligence.

The Iranian network based in Hebron was given a various directives by Iranian intelligence servises.  These included recruiting people to carry out shooting and suicide bombing attacks.

Most shockingly, the network was supposed to recruit Israeli Arabs specifically high level journalists to spy on and take pictures of sensitive locations.

Three were charged in a military court for attempting to join an illegal organization. Maharma was charged additionally with contacting an enemy agent, and receiving money from an enemy nation.

The Shin-Bet’s report comes at a sensitive time in the Palestinian Authority’s relationship with the Israeli government.  As the PA shops around for new benefactors due to the Trump administration’s threat to cut them off, Iran becomes the most likely address.  Of course the Iranian people might have second thoughts on their government wasting even more money on failed Arab initiatives.

While Putin and Bibi Speak, Syria Installs Latest Russian Air Defense System Near Damascus

According to the Israeli media, Prime Minister Netanyahu and Russian President Vladamir Putin held a phone conversation in order to ensure that Russia was kept abrest of Israel’s security needs despite the latter being a part of the Iranian axis.  These types of conversations have been going on for over a year in order to minimize friction between the IDF/IAF and Russian forces in Syria.

These conversations have been promoted to the Israeli public as a way assuage fears by claiming to use Russia to help mitigate the forward movement of the Iranian axis towards the border with Israel.  The challenge with this sort of thinking is that we see that after the fall of Beit Jinn, Russia has done little to keep Iran and Hezbollah outside the deconfliction zone.

The other pervading theory is that Israel has a deal worked out with Putin that the IAF is allowed to attack Hezbollah, Iranian, or even Syrian positions within Syria if they are deemed a threat to Israel. Yesterday’s installation of the Russian S-125 Pechora Batteries (a Soviet-designed system originally built in the 1960s) in the Marj Ruhayyil airbase located south of Damascus puts to rest this line of thinking.

According to AMN the modernized variant in question is reportedly the M2 version of the S-125 Pechora, “which in addition to having an improved kill probability record, is technically capable of tracking and intercepting low-flying cruise missiles.

Why is this important? The assumption has been that the IAF would be able to attack Syrian-Hezbollah-Iranian forces with impunity.  The Russians clearly have other ideas.

Does Putin Want to Destroy Israel?

Not at all. He wants to use the Iranian axis he has been tacitly covering for to hold Israel at bay and force its government to turn to him for its needs. While the situation is not at that point yet, it is rapidly approaching.  The Trump administration of course understands this and appears to be ready to back up Israel.  The Jerusalem announcement was as much part of Trump’s calculus in relation to Russia’s moves as it was a declaration of support that flowed from his own beliefs.  For Trump the two aligned.

With more and more IDF forces quietly being moved North, the stakes are high on both sides of the Golan.  Russia’s play at attempting to militarily isolate Israel by using forces hellbent on its destruction is a gamble that could trigger a far wider war.

Trump, Iran, and the Time for Regime Change

Donald Trump tweeted the following concerning the wave of anti-regime protests sweeping Iran:

What started out as a series of economic protests in select cities in Iran has turned into the largest wave of anti-regime protests in Iran since the failed Green Movement. Despite the show of force by the regime protests keep growing threatening to spiral out of control.

Unlike the Green Movement, which many blame Obama for not backing at the same time he backed the Arab Spring, Donald Trump has gone out and warned Iran.  Does this mean he will step in.  Absolutely not, but what is clear is that his vocal support maybe key in helping to further destablize what is seen as a brutal theocratic regime.

With Iran on the move across the Middle East, the regime has pumped billions of dollars into bolstering its proxies while many of its citizens suffer from economic woes.

For this revolution to succeed, it cannot be seen as a Western inspired uprising, but rather homegrown in nature. So far that seems to be the case. While the IRCG and the security forces are brutal, the populace must hang in there for this to have long term consequences for the Ayatollahs and their supporters.  With internal divisions growing in Iran, it is clear that this may take off.

Yet, if the Iranian regime believes this uprising threatens its very existance, war may be the regime’s only way out.

No Huffington Post, Jews Are Not Crusaders

In a recent article on Huffington Post titled: “First Judeo-Christian Crusade for Jerusalem” the author Liaquat Ali Khan paints a Muslim centric picture of history in the Holy Land by claiming that Jews are essentially recent residents of the Land of Israel or what he would like to call “Historic Palestine.”

Khan’s claim is that evangelical Christians have decided to partner with Jews to launch a crusade to take Palestine from its inhabitants.

Khan states the following early in his article:

“Currently, a Judeo-Christian Crusade is underway to consolidate the territorial claims of Israel, a state instituted by the European Jews with the support of the European Christians, in lands that constitute historical Palestine. Since 1948, the European Jews have occupied some parts of Palestine through a colonial gift from Great Britain and some parts through wars and settlements.”

He then adds:

“It is unclear how to date the first Judeo-Christian Crusade to recapture Jerusalem from Muslims. Some might date it from the November 1917 Balfour Declaration when the United Kingdom, then at war with the Ottoman Empire, promised to establish a homeland for Jews in Palestine, an Ottoman territory. Some might date it from May 1948, when Israel was declared an independent state. Some might date it from June 1967, when the Jews defeated the Arab armies and conquered East Jerusalem and other Muslim territories. Some might date it from December 2017 when the United States recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. November 1917 is most certainly the date for the public declaration of the first Judeo-Christian Crusade. June 1967 is a more realistic date for the actual conquest of Jerusalem. December 2017 is significant because this is when the United States abandoned its false neutrality and openly sided with the Jews against the Muslims.”

“Whatever date is the origin of the Judeo-Christian Crusade, this is the first time that Jews and Christians have come together to take Palestine and Jerusalem away from the Muslims.”

“Even though many Christian nations are divided over the final status of Jerusalem, their support of Israel as a replacement state in Palestine has been loud and clear.”

The problem with Khan’s argument like all other Islamic historical revisionists is that it is not the Jews whether they are European or Middle Eastern that are newcomers to the land, but rather the Arabs themselves.

Claiming that evangelical Christians and Jews have been working together to wrest control of the Holy Land from the so-called Palestinians is a twisting of history.  If that was the case, how could it be that the majority population of Jerusalem in the 1860s according to the Ottoman themselves was in fact Jewish?

More so, it was the Balfour declaration itself that gave the region the distinct name the Arabs claim is connected to them.  It was the British that called it “Palestine.” No such name as a political unit existed before that (except in times of Hadrian) and Balfour used that name to refer to the Jews that had been streaming back home to resettle it.  Afterall, Mark Twain himself noted in his famous travel journal titled “Innocents Abroad” that the Holy Land was mostly desolate.

This is not to say that no one existed in what was known by the Ottomans as Southern Syria.  There were a growing population Jews who had been encouraged by the Ottomans to settle in the Land of Israel as well as Bedouin tribes.

The Jews living in Israel at the time of Mark Twain, were not confined to just a few blocks in Jerusalem.  There were ancient communities in Hebron, Safed, and Tiberius.  These communities existed well before the Islamic conquests of Saladin and before.  Proof of this can easily be mustered by visiting ancient synagogues that were still in use through the 19th and 20th centuries Locations include Hebron, Susya, Safed, Jericho, Samoa, Tiberius, and Jerusalem.

There were also Arab serfs that lived in the land as well.  Some villages like today’s Abu Gosh or rab villages near Haifa were not Arabs at all but Muslim Chechnyans and Bosnians dating only back to the 18th century.

Most interestingly, the Arabs we see today in Israel did not stream into Israel until the early 1900s.  By the time Britain took over, the British government openly encouraged Arab immigration while holding back Jewish returnees by instituting quotas. Moreover, the British worked hand in hand with Arabs to push out Jews that had been living in Jerusalem and Hebron for centuries.

Khan also attempted to focus on the Jews being of “European” descent as if this disqualifies them as “real Jews.”  This line of attack is not special to Khan, but has bubbled up across academia and is being used by various anti-Israel movements.

Of course, this is absurd as it should be noted that the location of Israel places it squarely on the border of three continents, Europe, Asia, and Africa.  This is ultimately the reason how there can be so many colors that share similar DNA within the Jewish nation.  It was the Romans and their predecessors the Greeks as well as the Persians that allowed for Jewish migration throughout their empires.

In fact, those Palestinians who can trace their ancestry back centuries and are not recent immigrants may not be who they claim to be at all.

Professors Ostrer and Skorecki wrote in a review of their findings that they co-authored in the journal Human Genetics in October 2012 the following conclusion:

“The closest genetic neighbors to most Jewish groups were the Palestinians, Israeli Bedouins, and Druze in addition to the Southern Europeans, including Cypriots.”

The research paper goes on to clarify that it is in fact European Jews that have a stronger connection to “Palestinians” than even their Middle Eastern counterparts.

Doesn’t this throw Khan’s assertion that Jews are newcomers to Israel or as he calls it Palestine out the window?

If Jews or let’s say it more accurately, European Jews were never here, how can the Palestinans have such a  close genetic connection?

If one looks at history in a neutral manner, it is not the Jews who are the “crusaders” but rather Muslims themselves. These Muslims came in the 7th and 8th centuries after a series of Roman expulsions of the Jews that ended in the 4th century CE. and forcibly converted the remaining Jewish inhabitants with a decree issued in the name of the Fatimid Khaliph El-Khakem in 1012. This caused the region’s Christians to flee and the Jews who became the majority to convert.

Khan’s ignorance of history is either willful or like many Muslims fabricated to fill their need to turn all history into Muslim history.  Afterall to most Muslims, Abraham, David, and Jesus were Muslims. Khan is not interested in history, but rather creating an alternate history, based not on facts but rather on fiction. Hkan appears to be driven by what he perceives as a loss of a piece of Dar Islam.

Huffington Post has a right to publish any article it wants.  However, if it wants to be taken seriously it should consider refraining from publishing articles that act as catalysts for undermining documented historical norms.

WAR DRUMS: Syrian Regime Takes Manbij, Encircles Rebels in Beit Jinn, Approaching Golan

While the Netanyahu government continues to revel in Trump’s Jerusalem declaration the euphoria should be kept in check. With each day that passes, the Syrian Regime draws closer to its goal in breaking the buffer zone that lies between its forces and the Israeli Golan.  Arab news is reporting that the Syrian regime aided by Iran and Hezbollah has captured Manbij Farms.

The fall of Manbij Farms essentially cuts off the strategic Beit Jinn enclave from supporting rebel forces.  This makes the 4km distance between the regime and Israel a far easier move as rebel forces continue to disintegrate.

Danger to Israel, Blow to Netanyahu

While it is often assumed to observers that the Assad regime would take its time before moving against Israel, the Iranians have been the real drivers in Assad’s decisions.  Given that the Shiite alliance, backed by Russia is continuing to win, there is no reason to assume they will stop at the Golan border.  Afterall Prime Minister Netanyahu promised that he would prevent Iran from establishing a direct land corridor between Tehran and Israel.  The 4km stretch between Beit Jinn and the Golan makes the land bridge the Iranians have been pining for a done deal.

Israel has little maneuverability when facing the coming onslaught, which by all estimates is fast approaching.

WAR DRUMS: Syria-Hezbollah-Iran Moves Within 4km of Israel’s Golan

Arab sources and media are reporting that the combined strength of the Syrian Regime army and Iranian backed Hezbollah succeeded in cornering the Syrian rebels in the Beit Jinn enclave, located 4km from Israel’s Golan.  The rebels, seeing no help from Israel have now offered to surrender peacefully.

Once the regime and Hezbollah fully capture the enclave, they will have unfettered access to the Hermon, essentially surrounding the key area from both Lebanon and Syria.

Israel’s government has little time to decided how and when to stop the forward momentum of the Syrian-Hezbollah-Iranian forces before they are able to dig into fortefied positions along Israel’s Northeastern border.




While Israelis are disracted by news reports connected to the imminent police recommendation to charge Prime Minister Netanyahu with corruption, the danger on the country’s Northern border is growing.  Without a bold move soon, Iran and its Syrian and Hezbollah allies will achieve what Netanyahu pledged would never happen.  The Ayatollahs would be ready to pounce on Israel at a time of their choosing, that is unless Israel hits them first.

Turkey Wants Jerusalem…Again

While the Palestinians seem to relish at being useful tools for the Islamic world’s obssession with Israel, the rage the President of Turkey has expressed “on behalf of the Palestinians” seems a bit self absorbed.  Was it not the Ottomon Turks who ruled Jerusalem for centuries before they lost to the British in World War One? What happened to their Palestnian brethren during that time, because as they say the Palestinians were in the Land of Israel for millenia.

The truth is and Turkey’s leaders know it to be true, is that the Ottoman Turks ran Jerusalem into the ground.  More than that, the majority population in Jerusalem at the time of Turkish rule was in fact Jewish.

Turkey cares as much as any other Islamic nation for the so called Palestinians, which is not much. What Erdogan wants is to dial the clock back to the days before the British ruled the Land of Israel and thus named the province Palestine, which was Western name for a province called something else completely different by the Ottoman Turks.

Erdogan completely believes and lives for the goal of returning Turkey to the zenith of the Ottoman Empire, including Jerusalem.  The problem is, everyone else see through it except for Erdogan, who is never content just being President of Turkey. Erdogan wants to be seen as a sort of neo-Sultan of the reformed Ottoman Empire recast as a modern day Islamic hero reconquering Israel from the “filthy Zionists.”

“Because it [Jerusalem] is under occupation we can’t just go there and open an embassy,” Erdogan was reported to have said today. “But, (God willing) those days are near and… we will officially open our embassy there,” he said, without giving any precise timetable.

Of course the chances of any of this actually happening is close to none, but Erdogan’s rant has a whole other purpose.  In the currently forming between Turkey, Iran, Russia, Syria, and Iran, it is Turkey that plays the part of the outsider who has at the last moment decided to switch teams.  For this Erdogan must curry favor with the Arab street and position himself as the leader of the Islamic world.




Although the Turkish embassy will not move to “East Jerusalem” anytime soon, Erdogan’s rant can have far reaching consequences in the region.  It certainly gives the Shiites a cause to rally around pushes those Sunni allies of the US into a tight spot. The more this back and forth drags on Erdogan can find himself igniting the flames of another intifada.

With enemies surrounding Israel and Turkey, Jordan, and others promoting a violent insurrection from within, the need to push back against the growing Shiite-Russo axis becomes all the more necessary.

Turkey’s role in the growing Shiite-Russo axis is not clear, but what is obvious is that Erdogan believes he is its rightful leader.