Author: Micha Gefen

Micha is a government policy analyst for Israel Rising.
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Palestinian Authority Loses its Grip Over Hebron Upgrade

The Palestinian Authority’s reaction to the Hebron community’s municipal upgrade last week has become unhinged. Sensing the move essentially means that the Jewish residents of the city will not be removed from what is the Jewish people’s second most holiest city, Palestinian Arabs now understand that the coming parameters of a “peace deal” may not be to their liking.

“The order jeopardizes any political settlement in the area, which stands in contradiction with the peace process and the establishment of a Palestinian state,” Kamel Hamid the Palestinian Authority representative who also acts as their governor in the Hebron area said to the PA’s Wafa news agency.

More and more Israelis are recognizing that the blatant land theft as well as the continued twisting of history on the part of Arabs living in the area makes it near impossible to reach a final status agreement. In place of that, Israel has had no choice but to begin to extend its sovereignty to areas that have been historically Jewish since before the Arab population occupied them in the late 19th Century and early 20th Century.

In 1929, the Arab population rioted and killed 68 Jews in the ancient Jewish community.  The rest of the community fled. The Jewish community existed there since ancient times with the main building known as the Tomb of the Patriarchs being built over the grave site of Israel’s Patriarchs and Matriarchs by King Herod more than 2000 years ago.

The Arab population has gone out of its way to erase Jewish history in the city.  The latest upgrade by Israel, essentially freezes the assumption that Hebron is on the negotiating table.  With this in mind, a two-state solution seems to be the farthest thing from reality.

More importantly Israel has finally begun to call the Palestinian Arab bluff and started to make moves to integrate important parts of its biblically significant homeland into pre-1967 Israel.  This movement to finally assert Jewish sovereignty over what was always been Jewish land means a weakening of the Palestinian Authority control over Judea and Samaria.

With Hebron now off the table and continued reclamation of Jewish property in Jerusalem continuing, the PA has little claim to the rest of Judea and Samaria.  Abbas and his clan may have grown rich off of siphoning money from Western investments into their political racket dubbed the Palestinian Authority, but they are losing their grip on what matters most.

Israel’s growing control over its historical homeland may appear slow-moving, but it is moving forward none-the-less. It is this movement at the end of the day which will determining the sovereign in Judea and Samaria.

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Why are ISIS Fighters Being Transferred to the Border of Iraqi Kurdistan?

While Syria and Iran have begun to win back ISIS controlled areas in Western Syria, the Kurdistan Region Security Council has noticed that the defeated ISIS soldiers are not being killed or held, but rather transferred to Eastern Syria on the Iraqi border.

“According to an agreement between ISIS terrorists, the Lebanese Hezbollah and the Syrian regime, hundreds of ISIS militants left the Lebanese border areas and were taken with their arms and ammunition toward the Iraqi border areas,” the Kurdistan Region Security Council said in a statement released Tuesday.
 
“We as the Region’s Security Council express our concerns about this action and consider it suspicious. This raises many questions.  We hope that all relevant parties in the region take a serious stance on this action,” the statement added. 

The fighters were transferred to Al Bukamal on the Iraq-Syria border in eastern Deir ez-Zur province, part of the middle Euphrates River valley.  This area has the largest build up of ISIS fighters.  The question remains: Why Syria and Iran would want to strengthen the jihadist’s hands on the border of Iraq instead of wiping them out?

Iran Wants Chaos After Kurdish Independence

The approaching Kurdish referendum on independence is set to take place on September 25th.  An independent Kurdistan puts Iran into a dangerous position.  Afterall, Iran has 15 million Kurds within its borders, mostly in the West on the Iraqi border.

Our analysis indicates that Iran is using ISIS in order to create chaos after the Kurdish referendum.  There is one thing to have a Kurdish state, which is strong and stable.  This would be the last thing Iran wants, but a Kurdish state that has to continuously fight ISIS is one that would pose no threat to Iran.

ISIS, being a Sunni Jihadist organization would simply be ferried across the border into Sunni Iraq and moved North to the KRG.

Essentially, ISIS has become a tool of the Shiites in much of the same way as it was with the Obama administration. Where it goes it creates chaos and with any chaos there is always another party looking to make order.  Iran is now mobilizing to the KRG’s East as well. Kurdistan is essentially surrounded by chaos to its West, Turkey to the North and the Iranian army to its East.

In order for Kurdistan to come out of September 25th as a stable country, the Iranian game of creating as much problems as necessary must end.  This can be done by ensuring the ISIS buildup on the Kurdish border is wiped out. If the Pentagon is truly serious about helping a nascent Kurdistan become an actual state, then it must ensure the ISIS force in Deir ez-Zur is finished before it can create havok for the new state.

 

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Why is the Trump Administration Taking it Easy on Israel’s “Settlements?”

The so-called “peace process” between Israel and the “Palestinians” living in Judea and Samaria has constant ups and downs with no real breakthroughs of substance.  This past week as Jared Kushner and Jason Greenblatt visited the region, reports have it that the two informed Mahmoud Abbas that there would be no settlement freeze.

With this message in hand, PA officials told the London-based Al-Hayat that Kushner said the following:

“It is impossible to talk about halting the construction of Jewish settlements in the occupied territories, or considering this as a condition for the resumption of negotiations, since the issue of this issue would bring down the government of Benjamin Netanyahu.” 

With only the Al-Hayat as a source, news media outlets began repeating this mantra.

The official White House response simply “this is nonsense.”

Putting off the propensity for news outlets to repeat unsourced stories, the important part here is that the Trump administration will not force Israel into a settlement freeze.

The Trump administration may have gone under a dramatic change when Steve Bannon and Sebastian Gorka, but Trump himself has been shaped over the years by a circle of friend that are extremely pro-Israel. Furthermore, Trump is of the opinion that repeating past mistakes in the peace process will not only not bring peace, but could destabilize the region even more.

The Trump administration, despite the NSC now fully in the hands of globalists like H.R. McMaster, views Israel as a strategic puzzle piece in the Middle East. The last time there was a serious push by the USA for a two-state outcome was in 2007-2008 at the end of Olmert’s term.  Israel was at a vastly different point in its economic and geo-political situation.  The Israel of now, is considered an economic power house, having forged ties into the East and Africa.

With all the changes on the ground, along with Iran’s push towards hegemony across the Middle East, the US administration may want a comprehensive peace plan, but the contours of that plan will have nothing to do with the “Palestinians” in Judea and Samaria.

The Dahlan Plan Takes Flight

In July I wrote the following:

The plan that appears to be taking shape is that Dahlan will essentially become the defacto ruler of Gaza.  Supported by the UAE and Egypt he will lead a Gaza that is independent of Fatah and Ramallah. Without Gaza included in a future deal, the ability to annex Judea and Samaria, including all the area where Palestinian Arabs live appear to be doable. Once you subtract the population of Gaza from the total population of Palestinian Arabs West of the Jordan River, Israel will still have a comfortable 70/30 Jewish majority.

The nature of annexation is not clear, but the fact that it is Israel who is determining Area A housing solutions mean the ball has already dropped.  The question will only be if and when Dahlan takes over Gaza, will he be able to cut Hamas’ outsized control down to size or will the Islamist group prevent him from exerting real authority.

Although things can change, it is clear that the emerging plan that seems to be building behind the scenes between the Sunni alliance that is most interested in working with Israel is a permanent separation between Gaza and Judea and Samaria, which they call “the West Bank.”

Jared Kushner Promises Plan in Four Months

According to Israel HaYom Jared Kushner has promised to deliver a “peace-plan” to Mahmoud Abbas in the next three to four months. This has less to do with the US administration’s desire to build a comprehensive plan on the back of a former terrorist and Holocaust denier, than the need to keep things in check as the US continues to build a counterweight to Iran. This counterweight is being built on the backs of Israel and Saudi Arabia, with an emerging Kurdistan providing stability in Northern Iraq.

Back to Settlements

The vision within the Trump Administration and moderate Arab states is that a permanent settlement between Israel and the “Palestinians” can incorporate two opposing narratives.  With Gaza as a solidified political union backed by the UAE and Egypt, Judea and Samaria can be viewed by both Jews and Arabs as an extension of their “homeland.” This is why Trump himself has distanced himself from overt support of the “Two-State Solution” because the emerging solution is an acceptance that there will never be agreement on everything, but rather what needs to be built is long-term coexistence.

According to the San Remo conference of 1920, Jews have a right to settle anywhere within the boundaries of the Palestinian Mandate, which at that time reached not only from pre-1967 Israel but covered Judea and Samaria and present day Jordan as well.  What we could be seeing is the first attempt to get back to the idea of sovereignty and homeland.  With emerging realties and real threats to the Arab world from Iran, the idea of Jewish settlement throughout its historic homeland is becoming separated from the question of final sovereignty over the same piece of land.

By separating the two issues, creative decisions can be made in respect to a final outcome, which allows for the Jewish communities to thrive in Area C, while providing for the understanding that Palestinian Arabs live amongst them in Areas A and B.

Or Judea and Samria itself can be rolled into Israel.  Without Gaza, the population can be integrated and those not wanting to become part of the Israeli milieu can be paid to leave.

Whatever the outcome, the narrative has shifted away from Israel being an occupying power to one which has rights within its historic homeland.  That alone, makes the news trickling out from Kushner’s meetings relevant and important.

 

 

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Is Putin Ready to Throw Iran Under the Bus?

The announcement that Prime Minister Netanyahu and Russia’s President Putin are set to meet this Wednesday the 23rd of August in the Russian resort city of Sochi doesn’t seem to stand out as significant.  Afterall, the two men meet every few months to prevent any friction between their countries.

So what makes this meeting so different?

In the span of time between the their last face to face meeting, President Donald Trump acquiesced to allow Russian armed observers to man the borders of Israel and Jordan.  This was under the guise of ensuring a ceasefire between the Syrian regime and rebel forces. Although there were some rocky first moments, the plan has brought a modicum of quiet to the areas in question.

The challenge for Israel has been what the Syrian Regime and Iran are using the “ceasefire” for. It has become clear that Iran and Syria are seeking near control of the Golan border area.  This they have accomplished by way of their Russian allies.

What’s Next for Iran and Russia?

The prevailing assumption has been that Putin would give Iran enough of a leash to clear out the rebels in Syria, but not enough for either Iran or Syria to be dominant in the Levant without the go ahead from Russia.  While it is important to understand that any overt alliance puts Israel’s security at risk, the now quarterly meetings between Bibi and Putin mitigated much of this. Of course, all of this depends on Putin holding Iran and Syria back from placing game changing forces on the Syrian side of the Golan.

Iran and Russia have a working understanding that Iran can do what is necessary to clear the rebels and ISIS out, but given Putin and Bibi’s deconfliction understandings anything else would be deemed an abrogation of the working agreement between Tehran and Moscow.  The ceasefire agreement between Trump and Putin made during the G20 Summit is a good test of this.  For the first time Russia would open a corridor for Iranian troops to move right up to the Golan, yet the actual movement of those troops negates the deconfliction strategy with Israel.

Up until now Russia has allowed the IAF to strike where it needs to against Iran. More than that, sources tell us that Putin even relays targeting information personally to Bibi.  Iran and Syria maybe allowed utilize the ceasefire to move troops to the Golan, but if the past is any kind of predictor then they are on their own.

While most pundits believe these sorts of actions will eventually spell the end of the Iranian-Russian Alliance this is more of the same for Putin.  He relishes in playing multiple sides of each other in order to effectively control the situation.

Reaffirming the Deconfliction Understandings and More…

Bibi’s trip to Moscow is more about reaffirming the deconlfiction understandings in light of the new reality of Russia’s troops now manning the Golan border. Russia has no interest in allowing Iran to attack Israel, which would fully destabilize the region.  Putin wants recognition by Israel that Russia is the new player in the Levant and that it Israel will have to reevaluate how it relates to the fast changing Middle East.

Putin will keep allowing Israel to attack Iranian and Syrian targets. In Putin’s grand strategy this keeps the region in balance while he continues to take more and more control.

As America continues to minimize its overt involvement in the Middle East, the vacuum created is leading to a new order with its strings more or less being pulled by Moscow.

Israel’s goal is to hold onto to its security independence while treading carefully though a new Middle East.

 

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Bibi’s Support for Kurdistan Becomes Critical Before the Upcoming Kurdish Referendum

According to the Jersualem Post, Prime Minister Netanyahu expressed his support for an indepependent Kurdistan to a group of 33 visiting US congressmen.

Israel’s support for an independent Kurdistan is no secret, yet it has been relegated until recently to covert relations. As Iraqi Kurdistan votes on a referendum supporting independence on September 25th, Israel’s support is critical due to the fact that the US government continues to waver on whether or not the Kurds should hold the referendum.

Just recently US Seceretary of State Rex Tillerson urged Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) to hold off on going forward with the referendum.  Despite the pressure the KRG insisits it is going forward with the referendum.

“The date is standing, Sept 25, no change,” said Hoshyar Zebari, a close adviser to Kurdistan Regional Government President Massoud Barzani, after US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson asked Barzani to postpone the referendum.

Despite the rheotric from both the US and the KRG, American aid and direct development of the Kurdish autonomous area has continued, leading some to believe that the US and KRG are actually in agreement when it comes to the referendum.  When it passes the US, like Israel will forcefully recognize and support and independent Kurdish state.

According to my sources on the ground in Erbil, the US now directly controls one-third of Erbil’s international airport.  The US government has also resumed direct arms shipments to the Kurds as opposed to Obama’s policy which saw weapons transferred through Bagdhad to Kurdistan. This meant that many of the weapons were transferred to Iran instead of the Kurdish Peshmerga.

Why Does Israel’s Support Matter?

Bibi’s clear support for Kurdistan is not only on the governmental level, but is a reflection of how Israeli society as a whole views Kurdistan.  More than this, an indpendent Kurdistan would reshape the region by giving another moderate indigenous nation their own homeland.

While America wavers on Kurdistan due to the need to placate its Arab partners, Israel is able to speak its mind and show support for Kurdistan.  Israel’s support for Kurdistan runs deep and after September 25th this support may very well bear fruits by way of a truly moderate neighbor in the Middle East.

 

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Will Israel’s Deep State Take Bibi Down?

The end is here for Netanyahu.

Whether he is guilty of the crimes he is accused or not, the media appears to have pulled together to finaly take down the man who they despise more than anything else.

It is true, that much of what we see and hear about the three cases that have touched Netanyahu’s inner circle seem to be part of the pervading cacaphony of noise pervasive in Israel’s left run media that repeats the mantra,”Bibi is guilty.”

We saw this last week when Ari Harow, the former Prime Minister’s Chief of Staff turned states witness, supposedly against Netanyahu.

Yet a statement by Harow on Channel 2 should  remind us that something is not right here in what has become a witch hunt.

“The definition of state’s witness is not someone from inside who turns traitor against his boss,” he said. “Case 2000 is not a case that I opened. It is something that fell on me against my will while I was there. My ability to speak or not speak with the police is irrelevant.”

“They are accusing me of crimes that are unconnected to the prime minister and in my opinion I have not committed them,” he said, according to the TV report. “The choice is not whether me or [Netanyahu] will go to jail. Rather it is whether I will go to jail for no reason or not.”

Case 2000 involves the trading of cutting back Israel HaYom circulation which is run by Netanyahu backer Sheldon Adelson for favorable coverage in  Yediot Ahronot, a paper that often vilifies Netanyahu.

The two other cases are Case 1000 and Case 3000.  Case 1000 involves the Prime Minister accepting a box of fancy cigars from a friend and Case 3000 is connected to the German Submarine deal. The latter of the two was supposed to be Netanyahu’s undoing.  In fact the former Defense Minister Bogie Yaalon claims he has evidence of Netanyahu’s culpability, but a simple question needs to be asked. Why didn’t Yaalon who was bitter at Netanyahu run straight to the police? Now that Case 3000 has stalled against the Prime Minister, it has dropped from the media.

So what is going on?  The Harow situation is the key.  The police decided that Harow was guilty of using his position to promote his business, so they threatened him with jail time.  But Harow said the following in connection to the accusations:

“The accusations against me are baseless. I didn’t do anything with my company without legal advice,” he told them. “In other circumstances, I would have gone to fight, but with the current situation and in light of the resources invested, that would be pointless.”

“I will apparently receive several months of community service,” he said. “If the evidence against me was so strong I would go to jail for five years and the prosecution would never have agreed to be so lenient.”

Whether or not Harow has any damning evidence on Netanyahu remains to be seen, but the Harow case is an example or sordid tactics used to pressure Netanyahu’s clsosest friends to “spill the beans.”  This is why Netanyahu may not make it through this. The system is arrayed against him. The system is the system built by the socialist Mapai who ran Israel overtly until 1977 when Menachem Begin became Prime Minister.  By then the founders’ children were in Labor and victory after victory of the right has shown them the only way to hold on to their “parents’ inheritance” is to fight from the shadows.

No one stops to ask why Ehud Barak who is funded by foregin governments and leftwing think tanks isn’t taken to task on his actions as Defense Minister being influenced by foreign nationals.  Or Herzog’s clear collusion with Obama against a sitting Prime Minister.

Yet, Israel’s Deep State, which has kept control of the media and elements of the judicial branch as well as parts of the police department has decided to make war against Bibi and his goverment.  It is this war that is beginning to paralyze the government right when it needs a free hand to deal with a chaotic geopolitical environment.

Netanyahu may not be taken down legally, but if recent polls are correct, the right and his base are beginning to look elsewhere for a new leader.  Netanyahu’s base is key for his continued rule.  Without it he cannot hold on. The coming months will be key.  The Deep State in Israel is banking on the right fracturing over Netanyahu so it can take him and the right down in the next election. Netanyahu needs to shore up his base and move to the right so they will stand with him against a shadowy plot to remove him and his government from leadership.

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Is the Temple Mount the Fulcrum of Israel’s Break Up with Jordan?

It was never a happy marriage, but gone are the days between those euphoric moments in 1994 when Israel and Jordan first signed their peace treaty. Jordan, a made up country ruled by the minority Hashemite royal family from Saudi Arabia over which close to 80 percent of its citizens are second class Palestinians has steadily become unabashed about its in built anti-Semitism and anti-Israel modus operandi.

The trigger for the latest spate of anti-Israel vitriol is the fact that nearly 1,300 Jews ascended the Temple Mount on Tisha B’Av, Israel’s day of mourning for the destruction of the two Temples that rested there.

Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi was outraged that so many Jews took the time to walk quietly on the Temple Mount.

“The number of extremists who stormed Al-Aqsa today stands at a record number that has not been recorded since the beginning of the Israeli occupation in 1967.” 

“The crisis is over but further and more dangerous crises will break out as a result of Israel’s continued provocation, if Israel will not uproot the source of the tension, if the occupation will not end and if East Jerusalem will not become the capital of an independent Palestine.”

Jordan has for years funded extremists while feigning to be moderate.  Their entire country is geared towards repressing the rights of their Palestinian majority while ensuring the Hashemite family and its bedouin backers remain in power. For Jordan, the Temple Mount is all it has. It has no historical claim to the area nor does it truly have the backing of its citizens.

Mordechai Kedar wrote the following in Midah:

In 1994, Israel signed a peace agreement with the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan. In this agreement, Israel granted “special status” (Article 9) to the Jordanian government on the Temple Mount (‘Muslim Holy Shrines in Jerusalem’). This concession to the Jordanians was totally unnecessary since King Hussein needed peace with Israel more than Israel needed it with Jordan, and a peace agreement was achievable without it. Even ignoring this, what normal country grants another country ‘special status’ in its capital city and in the place most holy to its nation. This special status that recognizes a degree of Jordanian sovereignty on the Temple Mount has been disastrous for Israel and the devastating effects of this blunder have played themselves out once again in the wake of the latest terrorist attack on the Temple Mount, where two Israeli border policeman were killed.

The biggest mistake Israel has made with regard to Jordan is the ‘insurance policy’ it has given to the Hashemite Kingdom for the past 23 years under the baseless assumption that Jordan can deliver on its part.  This insurance policy is that Israel would protect the Hashemite Kingdom if in danger of being overthrown, and in turn, Jordan would serve as a buffer zone protecting Israel from the potential dangers threatening it from the east: Iraq falling apart, Iran and the Ayatollahs, ISIS and Al-Qaeda. As a result, the Hashemite Kingdom, whose origins are in Saudi Arabia, continues to rely on the minority Bedouin population to rule the majority Palestinian population, which thus prevents the natural process of Jordan becoming a country which is ruled by the Palestinian majority, or Jordan being split into a Palestinian and Bedouin state.

This policy of propping up a regime that clings to a false narrative has begun to unravel.  Jordan cannot exist as a country that has no real history and yet to cling to power by whipping up religious radicalism when necessary. The Temple Mount has become the focal point in the debate on who this Land actually belongs to. For Jordan, their presence on the Temple Mount is not only alien, but provocative and destructive.

With statements like Safadi’s the time is ticking until another deadly attack or a creeping play for more Jordanian control in the Old City.

 

What is the Israel’s Government Afraid Of?

Netanyahu has always pushed the far right of his coalition forward in order to hold onto the base of his party, while cutting deals to temper the very situation the right flank is pushed to set up.

In the case of the Temple Mount, the proverbial genie is out of the bottle. After years of tacit support for religious rights activists in encouraging Jews to ascend the Temple Mount, Bibi cannot simply pull them all back.  In fact, a majority of the country while not even religious support the rights of Jews to pray at their holiest site.

The murder of the two Druze policemen on the Temple Mount triggered a deep sense of collective duty to ensure the gates of Jewish prayer would be kept open and firmly established on the Temple Mount. This is a moment of reckoning concerning a policy that is not only discriminatory against Jews, but absurd in that it empowers a regime that is only at peace with Israel on paper.

The latest tension with Jordan over the Temple Mount is not only the initial stages of the end of the peace agreement signed in 1994, but one that has the potential to bring a fall to a regime in Jordan that is not only destructive to its own people, but one that is thwarting true reconciliation and peace in the region.

 

 

 

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The Real Reason Turkey is Bombing Kurdistan’s Border Region

The Turkish government continued to pound Southern Kurdistan, which is located in Northern Iraq. According to Rudaw, the Turkish military has been increasing bombardments in the area since Friday. The Turkish government claims it is only targeting PKK terrorists, yet this is a ploy often used by Erdgan to justify attacks on the Kurdistan Regional Government.

The latest attack was said to be carried out against PKK forces in the mountainous border area. Turkey’s Anadolu Agency news reported operations by Turkish jets in the Kurdistan Region  on Sunday, “were conducted in the Zap and Matina regions Saturday evening, killing three terrorists, who were preparing for an attack.”

With the September 25th referendum fast approaching and no sign that KRG President Barzani will be able to cancel it, Turkey has begun to step up deterrence by military means instead.  Already heavily involved with attempting to destablize the fledgling Kurdish autonomous area in Northern Syria through airstrikes and his Turkmen militia, the KRG area in Northern Iraq poses a challenge to Turkey.

Turkey and the KRG actually do nearly $8 billion in oil sales per year. Turkey and the Kurdistan Regional Government  signed a 50-year energy deal, which resumed the flow of Kurdish oil to international markets. The deal went against Baghdad’s demands for an immediate halt to sales.

With these figures, Turkey cannot directly go against the KRG, even if a referendum will be pave the way for independence.

“Holding the referendum will not have a negative impact on the economic relationship between Turkey and the Kurdistan Region, but rather it strengthens the bilateral relation,” the KDP official told Turkey’s state-run news outlet, Anadolu Agency. The official added that the KRG is able to satisfy more than 50 percent of Turkey’s energy demands.

If this is the case, then what is Erdogan’s strategy in relation to the Kurdish Regional Government on Iraq?

After all there are more than 52 oil companies operating in the Kurdistan Region’s oil fields and more than 20 additional oil reserves are ready to operate. Erdogan cannot simply go to war with a region that supplies so much of its oil.

Turkey Wants a Kurdish Vassal State in Norther Iraq

Long suspicious of any independent Kurdish State, Erdogan and the Turkish military have opted to tacitly support a compliant Kurdistan held within what is today the KRG in order to utilize its political structure to control the Kurds drive for true independence while keeping the oil flowing into Turkey.

Turkey knows that the soon to be independent Kurdistan, held within land locked borders has only one way to get its oil out and that is though Turkey. Turkey can come off as an unlikely benefactor of a Kurdish state while controlling the very state it claims it supports. This strategy requires Turkey to cut off Western Kurdistan, which is in Northern Syria while also ciolently repressing its 20 million Kurds in Suthern Turkey.

Turkey’s continued bombardments of the KRG is a message to Masoud Barzani that he is only allowed to push for Kurdish independence in name only or else the Northern Iraqi region could end up much like Northern Syria.

 

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Baghdad Threatens Force to Keep Kurdistan in Iraq

As the Kurdistan Regional Government’s September 25th referendum on independence fast approaches, Baghdad has begun to warn the KRG that it is willing to us force to keep Iraq unified.

Iraqi Defense Minister Irfan al-Hayali said the following while on a trip to Iran aimed at strengthening cooperation:

“The army will intervene to prevent any attempts or illegal measures aimed at dividing the country.”

Irfan al-Hayali  later denied the statements and said they had been mistranslated.

 

Kurdistan has been a long time coming and many believe that the Bush 2 administration was pushing for an eventual split from Iraq. “The people of the Kurdistan Region have the right to decide on their future peacefully,” President of the Kurdistan Region Masoud Barzani has repeatedly stated.

Although the US has often said it supports an eventual independent Kurdistan, recent comments suggest a subtle backtracking from outward support. The US fears a drive towards independence now will complicate its relationship with Baghdad and formerly push it into the arms of Iran.

Iran’s State News Agency reported the following:

Iran and Iraq on Sunday signed deals aimed at boosting military and defense cooperation during a visit by Baghdad’s Defense Minister Irfan al-Hayali to Tehran. In a memorandum of understanding, signed by Hayali and his Iranian counterpart Hossein Dehghan.

With the ties already growing the US may need to jettison its current policy and support Kurdistan openly. The coming referendum will put the USA to the test on whether it really wants to stop Iran or not.

 

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Is Turkey Bank Rolling the Clashes Over the Temple Mount?

For days, the Palestinian Arabs have been rioting over what is a simple security precaution involving metal detectors at all entrances to the Temple Mount. Metal detectors have long been installed at the Western Wall and at the entrance to the Temple Mount permited for Jews and tourists.

With the murder of two Druze policemen nearly ten days ago the government made a simple decision to install metal detectors at all the entrances.  Since that decision the Palestinian Arab population in Jerusalem has rioted, with Abbas not only continuing to incite violence, but going as far as breaking off security coordination with Israel.

“Relations with Israel are frozen at all levels until Israel announces that it is revoking its steps against the Palestinian people as a whole and against Jerusalem and Al-Aqsa mosque in particular,” Abbas said in a brief televised speech after a meeting with his aides.

Surprisingly enough many Arab countries have remained neutral on the issue.  It is clear the Saudis would like nothing more than to see the Hashemite control over the mount be scaled back as they want to push back on Jordan for their partnership with the Qatar supported Muslim Brotherhood.

Sensing a Saudi move to push them off of the Temple Mount, Jordan agreed to meet Israel over the Temple Mount wthout the Palestinian Authority. The main reason behind the PA’s exclusion, was Abbas’ assistance that Turkey become involved.

Israel HaYom reported:

“Israel and Jordan are planning to form a joint committee to devise security arrangements on the Temple Mount that would be acceptable to all sides.”

The report continued:

“The committee will deal with a wide range of issues beyond the metal detectors installed at the entrances to the compound. Among these is the implementation of an arrangement Jordan and Israel agreed upon previously to install a closed circuit security camera system in sections of the Temple Mount complex. The arrangement has not yet been implemented because the Waqf has yet to begin the installation stipulated in the arrangement.”

“A senior Palestinian official in Ramallah confirmed these reports. He said that in response to Jordan’s snub, Abbas called for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to take part in the talks to resolve the crisis. This in turn angered the Jordanian king and his supporters, the official said, as they view the Jordanian royal family as the sole custodians Muslim holy sites in Jerusalem.”

Turkey has been itching to gain a foothold in Jerusalem for over a year as part of Erdogan’s dream of rebuilding the Ottoman empire. He has urged thousands of Muslims to descend on the Jerusalem ascent the Temple Mount in order to “protect it.”

In connection to the most recent tension, Erdogan said the following Israel’s President Reuven Rivlin:

“Within the framework of freedom of religion and worship there can be no impediment for Muslims” entering the holy site, the Anadolu news agency quoted Erdogan as telling Rivlin.

“Given the importance that Haram al-Sharif carries for the whole Islamic world, the metal detectors put in place by Israel should be removed in the shortest possible time and an end put to the tension,” Erdogan added.

With Turkey and Qatar getting pushed out of Gaza by the UAE and Egypt, the most natural move is to start a rumble over the Temple Mount. Jordan has acted cautiously and stepped back from the brink by reaching out to Israel. With a fading Abbas getting bankrolled by Turkey, the riots are sure to continue unless Jordan can reach a true compromise with Israel.