Author: Orit ben Tzvi

Orit is Israel Rising's regional and threat analyst. She has a degree from IDC in Middle East Diplomacy and has served both intelligence related activities for the IDF as well as advised privately for firms doing business in the region.
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Abbas Says No to Trump and Thats Good for Peace

The current row between the Trump administration and the PA over the White House’s rumored closure of the controversial PLO office in DC has reached new levels as PA President Abbas now has refused phone calls with President Trump’s team. Does this mean the peace process is dead?

In one word: No.

When looking at the moves the administration is backing in Saudi Arabia by endorsing Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, it is obvious that the current situation involving the PA is being orchestrated by both by the US team and Israel in order to simply force the Palestinian leadership out.

Trump realized early on in his administration that as long as the PA is being led by dictators, murderers, and thieves there would be no chance to move forward towards a genuine peace. It is impossible to know the contours of the unfolding peace plan, but one thing is obvious at this point, whatever it is, it won’t be similar to the ones brought before.

Trump being a business man, seems to believe that the surest route to peace between Israel and the Palestinian Arabs as well as the broader Sunni world is to make the Arabs clean house first.  By doing so real grassroots relations can take place. The old guard within the Sunni Arab world has been milking all sides of the conflict for a number of years and by doing so has pushed off any lasting peace and any outside of the box ideas.  Sweeping them to the side is key.

By forcing the Arab world to clean house, Trump has essentially begun the process of allowing alternate ideas to be able to take shape.

How long will this take? Real peace might take longer than this generation, but forcing Abbas to say no is a great first step!

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IDF Clashes with Syrian Army in the Golan

The Syrian Army breaches the DMZ for the first time, breaking international law.

Israeli tanks fired shells at a Syrian army position under construction within the internationally recognized DMZ between Israel and Syria.  Considering that Syria is in direct cooperation with Iran and Hezbollah, the move to build a permanent base in what should be a demilitarized area has now inflamed an already tense situation.

The IDF said they fired the shots because the Syrian army’s actions is in direct violation of the 1974 truce agreement between Israel and Syria. The agreement “prohibits the entry of heavy construction tools or military vehicles into the demilitarized zone.”

The action occurred very close to the Druze village of Hader.  Hader was the site of an incident earlier this month involving Syrian regime forces and Jihadist, which appeared to threaten the safety of the Druze village. The IDF pledged to protect the village of Hader even though it is to the East of the DMZ due to it being Druze.

Leading to War?

The actions by the Syrian forces while not severe from a military standpoint, represent a serious escalation because it directly challenges Israel’s assertion that the IDF would in fact push back on Iranian influence so close to Israel’s border.

Does this mean war is about to break out?  No.  But the escalation is certainly leading the region in that direction.  It also  calls into question the IDF’s defensive posture as unsuitable for an enemy looking to push forward and win. Look for increasing skirmishes along the Israeli-Syrian border region on the Golan Heights.  With Syria and Hezbollah beginning to encircle Northern Israel, the IDF has become increasingly prepared to attack within Syria to push back on the Iranian led advance.

 

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Is Israel Trying to Wrest Control of the Druze from Syria?

With Russia and Iran solidly working together to etablish a new Middle Eastern paradigm, Israel appears to be creating one of its own.  Late Friday, the IDF responded to the Duze village of Hader’s request for help against ISIS by stating that Israel will absolutely lend aid to the embattled village.  There is only one problem, Hader is not within the current boundaries of Israel, but rather just East in Syria.

The village residents felt so threatened by ISIS that many attempted to break into Israel for safety where many of their relatives live.  The Druze are a stateless people who are spread between Syria, Southern Lebanon, and Israel.  In Israel, they are considered loyal, with many serving in the top units.

With Syria and Iran threatening Israeli security, the plight of Hader could well be the key for Israel’s entry into creating a formidable buffer against its enemies.  The Druze are loyal to the country they live in, which means the Syrian regime has benefited from outsized Druze support even during its lowest point during the civil war. Yet, Hader lies far West from the Syrian Druze main area called Jabal Al-Druze or Druze mountain.

Due to Hader’s location, Syria has been unable to apply its control there, which gives Israel the possibility for establishing a forward base in Syria, which can be used to push back Iranian control in the area. It is not clear how serious Hader is about its desires for Israeli help or even the ability for the IDF to enter, but given the fact that the region is under remendous mount of chaos, there is a logic in rethinking the borders and relationships in the area.  With the Druze finding success in Israel in a way they don’t in other areas, a unique opportunity may now exist to reach out to Druze communities in Southern Lebanon and Western Syria by offering a chance to ensure these communities security and prosperity under an expanded Israeli security umbrella.

This would send a message to Iran and even Russia that they are not the only ones that can shape and change assumed regional foundations.  The Syckes-Picot agreement has been buried.  It appears to be time for Israel to take charge and push back against Iranian and Russian machinations. Hader is the first test.

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Israel Moves to Annexation as the Ultimate Solution

The Israeli Cabinet is set to approve the landmark Greater Jerusalem Bill next week, in a move that will officially see 19 communities in Judea and Samaria that surround Jerusalem become part of the Jerusalem municipality in what critics say amounts to annexation.

The fact is, Israel has been quietly moving towards annexation over the past year. Of course there are levels of annexation and the strategy has been to apply Israeli law when possible to communities in Judea and Samaria. Without fanfare or public announcements, the Israeli government has been quietly using laws available to them to create a defacto change on the ground within communities beyond the “green line.”

Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked has already proposed new legislation making Israeli law even for Israelis living beyond the Green Line.  Although slammed as “creeping annexation” by critics, former military advocate general Maj. Gen. (res) Danny Efroni, not seen as a right-wing champion, has come out in support of such legislation due to the practical management of Israeli communities in Judea and Samaria and the needs of everyday living.

“The challenge,” says Efroni, “is maintaining the status quo while guarding the interests of civilians in the area.”

This seems to be the strategy that Israel is now taking, which is a blend of unilateralism and practical development in a stretvh of land now under Israeli rule for 50 years.  Prime Minister Netanyahu is said to love the Status Quo, but seeing a chance to create irreversible facts on the ground has made moves to create defacto annexation without any big announcements.

By simply applying Israeli laws evenly to Israeli communities regardless of location as well as expanding the jurisdictional control of Jerusalem to those communities closes to the capital, the question of sovereignty can be set aside for a more feasible annexation that seems to keep all sides at the table.

Then again the PLO, despite their intractability has rightly said that the Greater Jerusalem Bill will destroy the 2-State Solution, which makes the passage of the bill a potential a trigger to a broad Arab uprising. Or does it?

Recognizing the Reality

Netanyahu’s game plan has always been about allowing reality to take hold and eventually when reality took hold, the imaginary dreams of the “Palestinian” Arabs would vanish.  The utilization of the status quo as a concept in securing confidence in the Israeli body politic while all the time creating a situation where Jewish life can actually flourish in Judea and Samaria by merely making jurisdictional and bureaucratic changes may seem overly cautious to many on the right, but this strategy is now clearly the best and most balanced approach to ensuring Judea and Samaria remains in Jewish hands.

The cabinet is not altering Oslo (which is long dead), but carefully applying sovereignty within the confines of previously agreed powers. Afterall, the PLO  can complain, but they signed away their rights to what is now Area C the moment Arafat shook Rabin’s hand on the White House lawn.  No where in that agreement, does Oslo prevent Israel from applying its own rules to communities found within Area C.

Why is this point importan?  Because no one can claim Israel is doing anything out-of-bounds since the “Palestinian” Arabs agreed to give Israel those rights.  Let’s remember Area C is between 60% and 70% of Judea and Samaria.

While not annexing the land directly, applying Israeli law and reorganizing the Gush Etzion regional council as well as Givat Ze’ev, Maale Adumim, and others into a Greater Jerusalem block paves a careful path forward in creating normalization without breaking any previous agreements. This cleverly corners the PLO within its own unhinged rhetoric.

Furthermore, the approach now being taken by Israel, recognizes that Jewish communal life is an unquestioning reality in Judea and Samaria. That reality coupled with a “Palestinian” leadership unable to accept basic facts and a willingness to discuss a practical solution means that a new careful approach is necessary.

The Greater Jerusalem Bill, Shaked’s Israeli Law legislation, and other quality of life developments like approving housing for thousands of Jews in Judea and Samaria form the most intelligent approach to legal annexation now on the table.  Is it perfect?  Not at all, but the move are practical and leaves the PLO cornered and on borrowed time.

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BREAKING: Hamas-Fatah Fire Rockets From Sinai Into Israel

Hamas-Fatah fired two rockets from Southern Sinai into the Eshkol Regional Council in southern Israel Sunday evening.

The two rockets landed in open areas.

The IDF believes that the rocket attack and increasing tensions on the border near Gaza are a direct result from the Hamas-Fatah unity pact signed last week.  This pact sees the PA take control of the Rafah crossing while Hamas remains in charge of its own militias in the strip.  They will essentially remain an Iranian proxy.

This set up has been described as very similar to the way Iran and the Shiite Hashd al-Shaabi work with one another.

Israel’s security assessment sees a possible uptick in direct hostilities both in and around Gaza and from Lebanon as the crisis between Kurdistan and Iran escalates.

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IS ISRAEL ARMING CRIMINALS: Myanmar’s War Against the Rohingya is Not What the World Thinks

Rohingya Israel Myanmar

Fierce cries from many corners in Israel are demanding a stop to arm sales to Myanmar due to the insistence that its army is busy carrying out large-scale ethnic cleansing against the “defenseless” Rohingya Muslim minority. These cries stem from similar protests against Myanmar carried out around the world using the slogan “Real Face of Buddhist Terror.”

The Left in Israel has used the Myanmar issue to slam the current government, but if one takes a closer look at the situation there, it is not clear which side really is in the right.  Haaretz likes to insist that Israel habitually arms dictatorships.

In response to a question from the floor by lawmaker Tamar Zandberg of Meretz about arms exports to Myanmar, Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman said: “Generally speaking we subordinate ourselves to the entire enlightened world.”

Lieberman is lying. This is not the first time that Israel has taken such a course of action. It lied when it supported war crimes in Argentina, ignoring the American embargo, and it lied when it armed the Bosnian forces that perpetrated massacres, ignoring a UN embargo. It armed the military dictatorships in Chile and Argentina and the Contras in Nicaragua, and it is arming the forces of evil in South Sudan.

While each of these past “offenses” seems problematic, they are by no means monolithic.  In fact, each one has its own set of circumstances that should be investigated carefully.

Back to Myanmar and the Rohingya.  The reason why the Left in Israel are chastising the government is because the Israeli Left buys into the equivalent narrative when it comes to Israel. If one substitutes the claims against Mynamar with the word Israel, the claims sound all too familiar. “Ethnic cleansing,” “War Crimes,” and so on and so forth. Just like there are those who demand the US boycott Israel, similar voices have successfully petitioned the world community against Myanmar.  The stories are frightfully parallel.

The Rohingya are actually not indigenous to Myanmar.  They are as admitted, a Bangladeshi group of Muslims that are fighting an insurgency against Myanmar.  This insurgency is actually being funded by Bangaladesh against its Buddhist neighbor. The government in Bangladesh is responsible for the upsurge in violence due to their use of women and children as human shields.

 

The tactic of using a trojan horse by flooding a neighboring country with “defenseless” refugees is not new.  In fact Muslim countries have done this many times.  We see this in Israel when it comes to the “Palestinians” who are also not indigenous to the Land.

A post a few weeks ago in the India based SwarajyaMag said the following:

A violent Islamist group called the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) is forcing all Rohingya males – even very young boys – to attack Rakhine Buddhists and other civilians and to provoke the Myanmar army into violence. This group has been getting its funding and weapons from Islamic countries like Pakistan and Malaysia and its training from al-Qaeda and Taliban in Afghanistan.

Just yesterday a mass grave of hindus was found, said to be killed by Rohingya militants.

“Security members found and dug up 28 dead bodies of Hindus who were cruelly violently and killed by ARSA extremist Bengali terrorists in Rakhine State,” a statement posted on the army chief’s website said.

No one should suggest that nothing is happening between the Myanmar army and the Rohingya.  That would be foolish.  Yet, the UN Human Rights council (UNHRC) in the same way it has attacked Israel has created an appearance of a one-sided conflict.  This is the same UNHRC that is fully controlled by Islamic countries.

Given the above, it is hard to understand why the voices in Israel, claiming to stand for justice quiet down and look at the conflict in Myanmar as what it is, an Islamic fueled and funded rebellion being supported by Islamist countries both financially and in the UN.

With all of the challenges Israel has around it, the Left in Israel should give the government the benefit of the doubt when it comes to arm sales.  Israel has a need to arm those countries, despite flimsy human rights records that are not Islamist in order to push back on the spread of an ideology that has no qualms in using terror, innocents, and violence to achieve its goals.

If there was one suggestion the Left in Israel should make is that it could ask the government to make the arm sales to Myanmar contingent on their government allowing Israel to train their troops to better differentiate between ARSA supported rebels and innocent civilians.  After all, Israel is an expert in doing this.

 

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What is Behind Bahrain’s Outreach to Israel?

The news has been abuzz since yesterday when Bahrain’s King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifah called for the end of the Arab boycott of Israel and even said he allowed his citizens to travel there. This surprise announcement came within a meeting held in Bahrain with Rabbis Marvin Hier and Abraham Cooper, who head the Wiesenthal Center. The King has announced his desire to establish a Museum of Religious Tolerance in Bahrain’s capital before 2018.

The announcement maybe a shock to the word outside the Middle East, but King Hamad is considered to be one of the more tolerant rulers in the Middle East.  Bahrain boasts a multi religious society where religious tolerance is seen as a virtue. There are Mosques, Churches, Hindu and Buddhist Temples and yes a Synagogue.

Last year, the King made waves by his hosting a public Chanukkah lighting ceremony.

Jews who have lived in Bahrain since Talmudic times, numbered 1,500 in Bahrain until 1947 when pro-Palestinian outsiders came and rioted, forcing many Jews to flee the island nation. Most observers support the assertion that the local Bahraini Arabs actually protected their Jewish neighbors from the outsiders.  When the same thing occurred in 1967, most of the remaining Jews fled to Israel or England. There are presently 30 to 50 Jews remaining in the Kingdom, with one Jew Houda Nonoo, a woman having served in its 40 person parliament as its ambassador to the USA.

So what is behind this announcement and why now?

With the Saudi Crown Prince moving to take over from his ailing father in the coming months in conjunction with the Sunni bloc’s desire to hold back the formation of Russian backed Shiite crescent connecting the Mediterranean with Tehran, leaders in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain see Israel as an anchor to which they can hold the region’s future to.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman cannot make a public overture with his future leadership still in question, but King Hamad can.  His overture is not a policy shift in a defined sense, but a preparation for the coming overt alliance, that has been hinted at in Jerusalem and Washington.

Palestinian Issue Has Peaked

The Sunni Arab bloc, understanding that the Palestinian national movement had been a useful tool since 1967 have drawn a conclusion that the trojan horse not only has failed, but has spawned the very terrorism in strategy and tactics tha threatens their own regime. It cannot be folded up in a day, but the understanding that Israel is not going anywhere and given the impossibility of a “Palestinian” State, the Gulf Arabs have clearly decided that a deal with Israel is more important than keeping the false narrative of the “Palestinian People” going.

The deal that has more than probably been reached behind the scenes is an acceptance of the status quo by all sides. In effect it is a permanent Oslo Accords until something better comes along. For the Arabs, they can make due with saying disputed territories as opposed to occupied and the Israelis can finally gain a measure of regional integration and leadership.

King Hamad’s announcement is the first key indication that the Sunni Arab bloc is ready to publicly accept Israel. What follows after maybe a far bigger vision for the Middle East than previously thought.

 

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Why Israel Should be Concerned about Saudi Arabia’s Internal Politics

Reports from Saudi Arabia are saying that the Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is fast consolidating his power ahead of becoming King either after his father dies or abdicates.

“Over the last week, 16 people were held, their friends, relatives and associates said in interviews. They include prominent Islamic clerics, academics, a poet, an economist, the head of a youth organization, at least two women and one prince, a son of a former king,” reports the Times of India.

This move to push away dissent from within the regime, is a short term play to ensure the transition to kingship is without protest, but the more the future king consolidates power, the more the protests grow. If a fissure should occur within the kingdom, it could have cataclysmic results for Saudi Arabia.

At a time when oil is dropping and Iran is banging on their door steps, the Saudi royal family can ill afford to have a serious push against it from within.  Iran could easily exploit a serious dispute in the Kingdom by stoking revolt among the Shiites in the oil rich areas in the Southern area of the Kingdom.

Israel Needs to be Careful in Placing Trust in Mohammed bin Salman

It is clear Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has a real interest in building a serious relationship with Israel.  Yet, Israel cannot rely on him.  Any open softening of the Kingdom’s stance towards Israel will weakken the monarchy in the eyes of the street. If there is a real attempted pusch against the potential king, then Bin Salman will be forced to go negative against Israel to ensure his reputation with the Saudi street.

As Mohammed bin Salman moves to take over the Kingdom, there will be more an more resistance. His challenge is balancing his reaction in such a way that it does not spark an actual uprising. The stabity if the entire kingdom depends on it.

 

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Is Ayelet Shaked Leading a Revolution in Judea and Samaria?

Known for her tough stance in regards to Israel’s overtly left-wing activist court, Ayelet Shaked is leading another battle that is riling the left. If she wins she will change the relationship between Israel and the Jewish communities in Judea and Samaria.

Known as the Settlements Regulations Law, the measure drew severe criticism fromt he left, when it was passed in the Knesset earlier in the year.  Now, 13 left-wing NGOs have petitioned the Suprement Court to nullify the law. The law would effectively legalize 4,000 Jewish homes built with government help on private “Palestinian” Land.  This land often time lies vacant and unused as most owners abandoned it decades earlier.

Having lost at the ballot box election after election, the left and its European partners decided to use Israeli Supreme Court as a tool to upend Jewish growth in Israel’s biblical heartland of Judea and Samaria.  Most NGOs locate a tacitly related relative to the original landowner, most of the time living in Amman.  Once located these NGOs file a complaint with the Supreme Court. Almost always, the Supreme Court has ruled in the Arab’s favor.

This process has led to whole communities becoming uprooted, even if they were established decades ago. The Settlements Regulations Law is the first major step to reeling the power of the Supreme Court in relation to housing in Judea and Samaria and handing it back to the Knesset. The Law not only grants legality to these communities, it compensates the Arab 125% of the value of the property.

This is what Ayelet Shaked meant when she told the Jerusalem Post last week that “We want to revolutionize our [legal] perception,” she said. “Foremost is that it is possible for [the Knesset] to legislate [for Judea and Samaria] and in addition that we don’t solve one injustice with another.”

As usual, the left is caught up with the present Supreme Court case. Yet, they themselves are blind to what is actually playing out. Whether or not the Supreme Court rules in favor of the Settlements Regulations Law, is not the point. For years, the left has had a superficial strategy in dealing with the natural and just recalmation of Jewish land in Judea and Samaria, but this strategy ended up being just a set of tactics, that the right could never figure out how to take down until Shaked decided to go where no one dared to go before.

By taking on the root cause of the internal challenges facing the State of Israel, Shaked has made a solution that is far more attenable than settling another hilltop. By limiting the power of the Supreme Court to constitutional decisions, these matters which are essentially a matter of eminant domain can be decided primarily by the Knesset itself.

This is why those who back Judicial activism are so incensed by Shaked.  The elite left has finally seen the proverbial writing on the wall.  What makes matters worse for them is they are cornered.  If they fight too hard against Shaked they will make her into an unmovable leader of the right and set her up to be a possible candidate for Prime Minister after Bibi Netanyahu leaves.

On the other hand, if they do not oppose her, their judicial cartel will wither and die along with the last remaining avenue for the left’s battle against the Jews in Judea and Samaria.  Essentially, Shaked has set up the ultimate Gordian Knot.

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Threat of Hezbollah Invasion is Real as IDF Holds Largest Drill in 20 Years

In what began yesterday and will continue for 10 days, the IDF will simulate a real war, including invasion with Hezbollah.  Known as “the Light of the Grain,” or “Or HaDagan” the drill is Israel’s largest in 20 years and was called in a surprise fashion due to the growing tensions with Syria, Hezbollah, and Iran.

According to the army, the number of reservists taking part in the exercise is “unprecedented” with one IDF official saying the following:

“The purpose of the large call-up of reservists is to prepare the reserve force for war in the northern arena and to adapt it to the changes and developing threats of recent years.”

Since part of the exercise simulates a Hezbollah invasion of Northern Israel, soldiers are due to dress the part with some acting out enemy roles within pre-selected communities and others acting to repel hem.

The possibility of invasion appears to be so real that the IDF Home Front Command will practice its “Safe Distance” plan.  The plan will see communities near the Lebanese border evacuated farther south in order to keep them out of harm’s way.

Dealing with Three Fronts

As the Syrian regime and Iran consolidate their hold over Syria and Hezbollah strengthens itself in Southern Lebanon, the threats against Israel have begin to multiply.  Given the fact that Russia appears disinterested in helping to tame the situation and will most likely protect Iranian and Syrian regime forces, the coming war is far more complicated than in the past.

Add to this a USA who is phasing itself out of the Middle East and this leaves Israel pretty much on its own. Given the heightened tensions between North Korea and the USA as well as the coming referendum for Kurdish independence, anyone event could very well trigger an expanded regional war leaving Israel to fend for itself.