Category: Frontlines

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The Great Game: Turkey-Israel Detente, Russian-Iranian Cooperation, and the Kurdish Question

The old adage “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” has been an increasingly confirmative rule in middle eastern governing circles.  With the collapse of American hegemony in the region that has caused a resurgent Russia and Iran to take charge of areas that stretch from Iraq to Levant, countries normally at odds with one another have found the strange inclination to actually form alliances to offset the bear and the ayatollahs.

The Turkish-Israeli rapprochement took many people by surprise, but in the current geopolitical realities, the détente makes perfect sense.  Keep in mind Turkey, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt all have the same enemy in Iran and fellow Shiite travellers.  Throw Putin’s Russia into the mix and the Sunni states were very quick to find the only other middle eastern nation they could bring in.  The danger of Iran and Russia is so great for these forces, Palestinian issue, which has long been used as a foil to placate the Arab street has been move to the back of the Sunni’s list of priorities.

Israel as the Anchor

Israel is actively seeking a cornerstone role in the wide-ranging alliance forming in the western part of the middle east. One can already see this in the gas deals being built between Egypt, Greece, Cyprus, and Israel.  With Turkey being brought on board, Israel’s role in bringing old foes to the same table is not being missed, especially by Russia, who thought it had Erdogan cornered.

Israel’s game is to offset Russia’s power play to its north by giving a lifeline to Turkey, Russia’s age-old adversary.  For now it seems to be working, although it is clear Russia is remains unnerved by the “Great Game” and is willing to pressure Israel by backing up Iranian, Syrian, and Hezbollah forces on the Golan border.

What About the Kurds?

Kurdistan as it is known by all Kurdish people across the middle east is spread across northern Syria, Iraq, southern Turkey, and western Iran. Turkey’s main challenge is to dissuade the Kurds from working directly with Russia. If they are not able to, then Russia will have  a fifth column of 10 million strong disenfranchised Kurds inside Turkey to use as leverage if needed.

Right now, barring a severe flare up in Israel’s northern border the “Great Game” of the middle east is in its early phases.  Geo-political maneuvering is still fresh and fluid.  Russia may opt to play neutral in the burgeoning alliance system and let Iran and Syria go it alone.  Russia may also be able to convince Israel to remain neutral as well in exchange for security promises.  No matter the outcome, this “Great Game” will not take 100 years like the last one as America’s pull back has shuffled the deck and wrought chaos on what was already considered a chaotic region.

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WAR DRUMS: Is a Golan Clash Imminent?

What seemed highly improbable just a few months ago, appears very real today.  In the topsy-turvy middle east anything is possibly these days.  A large amount of politicians have counted Bashar Assad out since the beginning of Syria’s brutal civil war. These naysayers include former Primer Minister Ehud Barak and President Obama. Yet, in power Assad stands and now with a very invigorated Putin behind him, Assad’s moves on the Golan border are forcing Israel into a very tough position.

Israel can no longer afford to pretend to be neutral as the last vestiges of resistance to the Assad regime it helped create is destroyed.  Beyond that, remaining neutral allows Syria, Iran, and Hezbollah to build up right on Israel’s border.

Can’t Israel Trust Russia to Reign in Assad?

Trusting Putin depends how much one really believes he is a trustworthy individual.  Putin’s goal is to what’s best for Russia and it is far easier for him to force Israel into a weakened bargaining position. Make no mistake, Putin has no interest in destroying the Jewish state, but he wants to make the quiet he is supposed to enforce worthwhile. A cornered Israel dependent on the good graces of Russia, is exactly what Putin wants. Yet if te middle east has proved one thing over the past few years, it is unpredictability.

Already Out of Putin’s Hands

There is a false notion often bandied about across a wide spectrum of geopolitical thinkers that says Russia is in direct control of Iranian actions as well as Syrian.  Russia has always viewed Syria as his puppet, but when it comes to the Iranians it is often an uneasy partnership that only works because of shared short-term interests. Assad’s regime owes its existence to both Russia and Iran and therefore as long as its two benefactors have a mutual interest in not fighting Israel, Assad can be held back.

Iran has a short window of time to take action against the Jewish State. Russian intervention in Syria has allowed Assad and the Iranian forces there to be able to strengthen and position themselves with little problem in forward attack position on the Golan border.  Hezbollah still has 100’s of thousands of rockets aims at Israel. Russia does not want a war with Israel, but if one occurs the Arab and Iranian assumption is that it is Israel who will refrain from attacking out of fear of Russian intervention.  As far as Russian reigning them in, Putin wouldn’t be able to, even if he wanted.  Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah are all needed by Russia in their fight against American and Turkey proxy forces in the region.

In the coming days, the tension already in full display on the Golan border is bound to increase due to a failed Israeli assassination attempt on Syrian General Majid Heymoud reported by the Iranian Fars News Agency. Will Israel risk upsetting its delicate relationship with Russia in order to preempt an Iranian-Syrian play for the Golan?

 

 

 

 

 

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Niger Delta Avengers state the Obvious, “Buhari’s government is a fraud!”

Niger Delta Avengers

“Mr. President you can purchase all the drones in Europe and Untied State. It will not stop the Niger Delta Avengers from bringing the country’s economy to zero. The worse you can do is to kill poor innocent people which the military is good at, but know the Nigeria Economy will suffer.”

– Niger Delta Avengers

Although the Niger Delta Avengers are often times depicted by the Nigerian regime as a terrorist organization, many Biafrans who have suffered greatly at the hands of the Buhari led Islamist government in Nigeria. view the Niger Delta Avengers as freedom fighters.

The Niger Delta Avengers released the following statement through their spokesman, Mudoch Agbinibo:

The NDA intelligence agency gathered that the said peace talk or dialogue by the federal government is a delay tactic employed by the federal government to enable their purchased drones that are said to arrive latest end of August from the United State.

This whole thing makes us to wonder what kind of country is this. We can all see that President Buhari- led government is a fraud. They are not serious about any dialogue and made it seem the Niger Delta Avengers are the ones not ready for dialogue.

Mr. President you can purchase all the drones in Europe and Untied State. It will not stop the Niger Delta Avengers from bringing the country’s economy to zero. The worse you can do is to kill poor innocent people which the military is good at, but know the Nigeria Economy will suffer.

Also note that you will not be able to export one litre of crude in the Niger Delta. Just intensify the oil exploration in the north-east as for the ones in the Niger Delta forget about it because the Nigeria government won’t export a drop from our land.

The statement makes it clear that the Niger Delta Avengers as a group are only responding to provocations initiated by the Buhari led government. In the coming months these sort of attacks can be expected to increase. As Buhari and his Islamist regime continues to inflict damage on the Igbo and the other tribes that make up Biafra, patience is wearing thin.  The Niger Delta Avengers are correct, oil is the key to Buhari.  Disrupting the sale of the oil to the world will certainly bring the country to a stand still.

In Israel’s fight for independence, the Lehi captured the imagination of the Jewish youth oppressed by British forces and Arab mobs.  The Lehi as well as the Irgun bombed the British rail lines, targeted officials, and at the end brought the country to a standstill causing th British to leave. The Niger Delta Avengers appear to be few in number, but like the Lehi they are capable of bringing Nigeria to a halt. The Nigerian government will have to think twice before sending the army into the Biafran heartland. What Lehi proved and the Niger Delta Avengers are figuring out is that force of arms is the only tactic that works.

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WAR DRUMS: China and Russia Play War Games in the South China Sea

New joint military drills are planned between China and Russia for September to take place in the South China Sea. The involvement of Russia and location are seen as a message to America in the waning months of the Obama administration. The South China Sea is an area of serious dispute between China and its neighbors.  The Obama administration has pledged to stand against Chinese aggression. With Putin on the move in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, the Russian involvement is a worrying development.

The tension in the area stems from a recent international court ruling that China has no historic claim to the region. The Russians have backed Beijing up on their stance in opposition tot he ruling.

“This is a routine exercise between the two armed forces, aimed at strengthening the developing China-Russia strategic cooperative partnership,” China’s defense ministry spokesman Yang Yujun said.

Although the West views such exercises as a provocation and preparation for war, especially under heightened tensions, the two emerging super powers have held similar drills last year in the Mediterranean and Sea of Japan.

From China’s perspective it is the USA that is beating the drums of war by infringing on their historic rights in the South China Sea.  With China rising and Russia close behind, the USA has far less leverage than it had in the past.

Where Does Israel Stand?

Israel has taken a neutral approach on everything to do with the tug of war between the USA and China.  With Israel’s bilateral relationship growing at an exponential rate with China, any shred of non neutrality on the South China Sea and other issues between the Chinese and Americans, could endanger Israel’s new and positive relationship with Beijing.

 

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The West Can Stop Terror By Learning From Israel’s Security Experience

As the number of terror attacks by Muslim extremists in Western countries surges, countries such as France are looking to Israel for help in curbing terror attacks.

While the enemies of Israel and the West have different names, the underlying theme of the terror attacks is martyrdom or Jihad in the name of Allah and Islam. ISIS and Al-Qaeda want to rid the world of infidels, Jews and Christians, while Hamas, Hezbollah and the Palestinian Authority want to rid of Israel with the same goal as ISIS.

In a report by the Institute for National Security Studies, the point is made that France’s measures to combat terrorism, though numerous, have not been very effective in restoring calm in the country. Some of these measures include increased surveillance of Muslim radicals, telephone hotlines to report radicalized individuals, formation of intelligence units, deployment of police reserve units and even joining the US in the fight against ISIS in the Middle East.

“France considers Israel an important partner in the fight against Salafi jihadist terrorism, and sent a parliamentary delegation to Israel to learn from its experience,” says the report. “Israel’s professional, decades-long experience in fighting terrorism and the deep friendship between Israel and France obligate Israel to offer France assistance – to the extent requested – to fight their common enemy… The grave security situation in France may serve to shift public sentiments in France, and make the French more attentive to Israel’s concerns and security requirements in any future agreement with the Palestinians.”

How can Israel help?

Israel has been facing terror attacks ever since and even before it became the State of Israel. The recent terror wave in Israel which began in October 2015, has seen a steady decline thanks to increased security efforts and setting up an alert system to track down terrorists before they attack.

Arutz Sheva reported that this alert system was developed and based on an extensive analysis of terrorists since October. Police and the IDF saw a trend in the type of people committing these terror attacks. “The military’s analysis of attackers shows that most have been 24 or younger, and some 90 percent were male. Among the first 80 to 90 attackers from October to January, suicide was among the motives for around 40 percent.

Surveillance and monitoring is not enough to deter an attack. There is a cultural and social problem that needs to be addressed in many European countries. The analyses that Israel performs after an attack, along with technology to narrow down social media chatter, and campaigns to convince young people not to become radicalized and carry out attacks are all part of an effective counter-terrorism initiative. Intelligence units in Israel are known to be one of the best in the world and can probably help Western countries on deeper strategies to prevent future terror attacks.

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IDF Kills Hamas Terrorist and Arrest 3 Who Murdered Rabbi Michael Mark

IDF soldiers raided a Hamas terror cell in the West Bank village of Surif, near Hebron, and killed Mohammed Jabarah al-Faqih and captured three others.

Al-Faqih was responsible for the drive-by murder of Rabbi Michael Mark in front of his children on July 1 in Otniel. With the help of intelligence from the Shin Bet security forces, the IDF raided his home overnight, exchanged gunfire with the terrorists and shot Mohammed dead. Weapons were also found and confiscated. The other terrorists were taken in for questioning.

Yisrael Levinson, the Director of Har Hebron’s International Desk, told us: “We are happy to hear that the killer of Michael Mark z’l was killed this morning by the IDF and the Shabak. This is a good message to anyone who wants to destroy and uproot the Jewish nation from Israel, that no matter who they are and where they are, we will always win!”

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ISIS Takes Hostages and Slits Priest’s Throat in Northern France

Jacques Hamel

The hostage event in Saint-Etienne-du-Rouvray, Normandy, France is over, but not before the attackers slit the priest’s throat and taking 2 nuns and 2 parishoners hostage.  One witness recalled that the attackers screamed Daesh [ISIS] while they slit the priest’s throat.

Response from Marie LePen, the French far right leader was swift on Twitter. “Horror again in SaintEtienneduRouvray. The nature of the attack clearly makes one fear another attack from islamist terrorists.”

A spokesman for the interior ministry said the knifemen were shot dead as they exited the church. The alarm was reportedly raised by one of the hostages who managed to escape.

France’s Le Point reporting that the priest killed in the attack was 86-year-old Jacques Hamel, ordained in 1958, although this has not yet been confirmed. The website also says multiple sources say the two men identified themselves as ISIS supporters.

The incident comes among a swarm of radical Islamic incidents across Western Europe, unnerving citizens who had up until the last 10-15 days begrudgingly put up with a flood of Syrian refugees and other muslim migrants. The scales now are clearly tipping against the current EU policy.  The solution is not clear as the migrant population in Europe does not seem to be gong anywhere, while Erdogan looks to unleash a new flood of refugees from Syria on the European mainland.

Normandy is but another stop along the way towards an Islamic indiced chaos across the European continent.

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Erdogan Holds Europe Hostage as he Accuses the EU of Not Honoring Refugee Deal

Syrian Refugees

As was reported previously, the real fun is about to begin for Europe.  As the refugee crisis continues to turn worse in Western Europe, Erdogan has begun to use it to extract more and more money from European coffers. If the EU does not do what Erdogan says, he will unleash the hordes of Syrian refugees and migrants looking for a way into Europe that are now in Turkey.

“Ask them [the EU]. Did you pay? But Turkey still hosts 3 million people. What would Europe do if we let these people go to Europe?” Erdogan asked, according to EU Observer.

Essentially, Erdogan is confirming, that unless the EU pays 3 billion Euros that was promised in the deal, he will allow these Syrian refugees to overrun Europe.

The EU agreement with Turkey was meant to hault refugees from reaching Turkey’s neighbor Greece thus entering the EU’s Schengen zone. The Schengen zone is where free cross-border travel is permitted.  Part of the agreement was the EU’s agreement to accelerate Turkey’s EU accession process.

The amount given so far to Turkey is one percent of the total that the EU pledged to give to Turkey in exchange for greater help in blocking the westward flow of refugees, mostly Syrians, from entering the heart of Europe.

Essentially Erdogan’s whole goal is to extract from Europe more and  more money, by holding the catastrophic threat of millions of refugees inside Europe over their heads.  With the recent attacks in Germany and France, most EU members will opt to cave.  If they do, don’t expect Erdogan to kep quiet for long. Afterall, the goal is to create the same sort of chaos in Europe as Erdogan and Turkey has in Syria and Iraq.  Their assumption is that they not only will be able to take advantage of it, but control the chaos.  The problem is they believed the same thing in supporting ISIS, but now their creation has grown a mind of its own.

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ISIS In Europe, Turkey As a Transit Corridor, and Refugee Deal in Tatters

ISIS Member in Europe

Germans came to a nasty realization that their liberal euphoria in being an open and tolerant society may have been at the very least a bit naive if not down right deadly. The Syrian refugee turned suicide bomber was no psychiatric case, but rather revealed to be an ISIS member after police discovered ISIS material on his phone.  ISIS wasted no time claiming the attack their own. Where there is one ISIS member there are countless others. The attack has left the region shocked.

The idea that Germany would soon be entering the same fate as France was not lost on the Bavarian region, which is now in a state of panic.  This realization is born in an understanding that something far more sinister is at foot in Europe.  As refugees have streamed from Syria into Europe, their transit takes them almost exclusively through Turkey.  The fact is most refugees could have been stopped at the Turkish Syria/Iraq border, but have not been. Actually the opposite has happened, they have been welcomed. Once there they find themselves pushed West into Europe itself.

More than this Turkey ferries and protects ISIS members as they help swell the ranks of fighters in Syria.  Granted the refugees deal has slowed this movement, but Erdogan and company has still allowed it on a slow flame.  The question Europeans need to ask is why is Turkey doing all of this.

The answer is simple: chaos equals conquest.  As an Islamist Erdogan believes it is his duty to reconquer areas taken from him by infidels as well as push Islam to new locations.  For Erdogan ISIS serves the first purpose by bringing chaos to Syria and the rest of the Mesopotamian region, an area Turkey used to control.  Refugees fulfills the second, which is a destabilization of Europe due to overwhelming numbers and increasing ISIS attacks.

Now that Turkey’s turn to autocracy is all but confirmed, the EU entry negotiations will become permanently stalled, paving the way for the nullification of the refugee relocation deal.  If Europeans thought their lives were bad now, in the coming months it will be a lot worse.

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The Elor Azaria Trial: “How can you explain to the mother whose son was killed because he didn’t shoot?”

Elor Azaria Trial

The Elor Azaria Trial drags on with the prosecution continuing its harsh cross examination of Elor Azaria. In one exchange even the judge piled on aiding what has become the left leaning military’s judicial branch in heaping scorn onto the young soldier.

The following exchange occurred in the afternoon testimony between the military court judge and Elor Azaria:

“If the terrorist is neutralized and doesn’t constitute danger there is no need to shoot him,” said Azaria. “Even forbidden to shoot him,” added the prosecutor. Azaria responded by emphasizing: “It is forbidden to shoot him if he doesn’t constitute a danger.”

“Based on the circumstances, if you have any reasonable suspicion that the terrorists has the means to carry out an attack, you don’t see it, but you know that you suspect it, then that is enough to neutralize him. Why? Because we are taught that if there is a suspicion then you don’t wait,” he said.

“Doesn’t this phrase not mean the opposite? That is to say, when there is a doubt you are not supposed to open fire in order to avoid mistakes,” the judge interupted seemingly going after Azaria’s understanding of the terminology.

“I understand from this sentence,” Azaria replied, “that when there is a doubt, a fear that a terrorist (could strike) you neutralize him.”

Asked whether—with the knowledge of hindsight that the terrorist did not have a bomb on his body—he would have shot him, Azaria said, “I think that I acted as I was supposed to.”

“With the suspicion that I had you don’t take the risk. He could blow himself up and you would feel guilty that you did nothing about it. How can you explain to the mother whose son was killed because he didn’t shoot because he only suspected.”

“If you had known at the time that he did not have an explosive under his clothes would you have shot him?”, he was asked to which he replied: “That is the whole point, ‘if.’ I don’t know. I had two concerns in mind, an explosive and a knife. If I had known that a check had been conducted I would not have shot him in the head.”

As the trial continues most observers outside the elite section of the military and certain government quarters recognize the government’s case is not only weak but wil have ramifications on soldiers performing in fluid combat situations. Even the new defense minister Avigdor Lieberman sensing the implications of such a conclusion has demonstrated support for Azaria.

Why is the Military Court So Obsessed With Convicting Elor Azaria?

The IDF Military Courts have become populated with left leaning officers and judges. Often times these judicial “experts” that have taken great pains to create military law that hinders soldiers.  Yet, the ultimate reason for the Azaria witch hunt is the negative PR the government felt the Betzelem Video of the incident created.  Former Defense Minister Yaalon, started the witch hunt by claiming Azaria was a “radical,” and equated him to ISIS.

The fact is that most soldiers are given tremendous leeway in fluid situations in order to ensure that the soldier does not second guess to the point where it will kill him.