Category: Frontlines

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Turkey Coup: The Coming NATO Civil War

As the counter coup continues to rage, Erdogan is gaining more and more power by the day.  The dream of a resurgent Ottoman Empire is not just a fantasy anymore.  Whether the coup was a false flag event or a poorly executed attempt orchestrated by Fetullah Gulen, Erdogan’s nemesis, the counter coup is already changing the dynamic of Turkey and its relationship with NATO.

“The President pledged any needed assistance to the Turkish government as they conduct an investigation to determine exactly what happened,” Josh Earnest, White House spokesman told reporters.

Although the statement appears to be positive, the following caveat on the investigation holds within it a powerful message and hint to where things will go.  Earnest continued with the following: “[Obama] believes that investigation should be conducted consistent with the democratic principles that are enshrined in Turkey’s constitution.”

What is clear, is that Erdogan is ignoring Turkey’s constitution.  He has arrested and purged thousands.  He has shut down opposition media and is on his way to becoming the 21st century sultan redux.  

The Obama administration knows this.  Despite Obama’s early bromance with Erdogan, he and his advisors have grown to despise his continued power grabs and meddling in the Middle East.  The challenge for the West is that Turkey is no pushover, they have the second largest military in NATO, second only to the USA.  

Erdogan has been using NATO as cover throughout his tenure, knowing that eventually he would either leave or be jettisoned out of the alliance.  The problem is that NATO needs Turkey far more than Turkey need NATO right now.  NATO membership was always a moderating force on Turkey’s actions.  Whether or not Turkey formally leaves, from here on out Erdogan will not take NATO membership into consideration as he moves to rebuild the lost Ottoman empire.  At its peak it reached from Greece to Iraq. Erdogan won’t get it all back, but he will try to uncover areas that are weak and if successful he will push on.

Ottoman Empire
Boundaries of the Ottoman Empire in 1795

At one point and time NATO will have to stop their east most neighbor member.  The conflict will be fought through economics and proxies, but it will be fought.  Afterall, Erdogan is a believer and is determined to see his dreams through. Ironically the schism in NATO reminds one of the last time Europe split into two, between the Western and Roman Empires.  History repeats itself, sometimes in the most brutal ways.

 

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Liberman: “The Iranian Threat Remains the Greatest Threat to the State of Israel”

During his appearance before the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee on Monday, Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman remarked:

The Iranian threat remains the greatest threat to the State of Israel. Iran is moving forward with its missile program, as well as its military program, with full force, and one does not have to guess what the objective of this missile program is.

Liberman went on to address the different threats that Israel faces and the importance of the home front in defending Israel’s citizens by “erasing any will and motivation the enemy has to mess with us.”

I do not know of any other country that is currently dealing with as many threats as Israel is: ISIS on the Sinai border, Hamas and [Islamic] Jihad in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and al-Qaeda in Syria. All of our enemies are planning to turn the next conflict into an attack on the Israeli home front; on civilian population. It is obvious that in the next conflict there will be an attempt to harm innocent people. This is why the home front is a very high priority for us.

Many have assessed that an improved economic situation for the Palestinian people would reduce the number of terror attacks. However, Hamas takes advantage of worker entry permits and that the increase in entry permits the last few years also saw an increase in terror attacks using said permits. An example brought by Liberman is the city of Hebron. Despite Hebron being a prosperous Palestinian commercial center, it is an extremist hotbed from which many of the recent terrorists emanated.

Liberman warned that while Israel may soon be facing a military confrontation on one of its borders, “if someone is trying to force a conflict on us – every conflict must end [with a decisive victory]. We must erase any motivation our enemies have to test us a second time, if they try to test us a first time. But first we must erase any will and motivation to mess with us.”

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Is Washington Finally Getting Fed Up With Turkey?

What started out like a budding relationship between Obama and Erdogan, has now gone way beyond simple agitation.  The coup in Turkey may have put the final nail in the coffin for what was supposed to be an American backed drive to rule the Middle East.

Early in Obama’s tenure, he believed that Turkey could become the lynchpin to US policy in the region.  That was 7.5 years ago.  Today’s relation is fraying at the seams and with months to go before Obama’s departure, the tightening of Erdogan’s rule following the “coup” may push it over the cliff.

Erdogan has essentially used the failed coup to purge the government and country of non-loyal forces.  Although the USA supports a stable and strong Turkey, Erdogan using it as leverage to strike back at opponents is worrisome to the Obama administration. “We will certainly support bringing the perpetrators of the coup to justice, but we also caution against a reach that goes well beyond that,” Secretary of State John Kerry said on Monday. “We also firmly urge the government of Turkey to maintain calm and stability throughout the country, and we also urge the government of Turkey to uphold higher standards of respect for the nation’s democratic institutions and the rule of law.”

With Turkey getting the cold shoulder from the United States and of course near isolation by Russia, this puts it in a very difficult position with little or no wiggle room.  This is what makes Bibi’s continued acceptance of the Israel Turkish reconciliation deal so strange. Why would Israel want to throw Erdogan a life vest?

“Israel and Turkey recently agreed on a reconciliation process between them. We assume that this process will continue without any connection to the dramatic events in Turkey over the weekend.” Bibi Netanyahu said yesterday.

The question for Israel is, how long will it wait to jump onboard the anti-Erdogan bandwagon? Afterall, if Obama and Putin can agree on the need to corner Erdogan, it pays to pivot alongside them rather than being left the only one still committed to some irrelevant deal.

 

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Netanyahu Calls for Unified Approach of Condemnation and War on Terrorism Worldwide

During the weekly Cabinet meeting on Sunday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discussed draft laws to strengthen economic stability and improve the functioning of government ministries. However, he began with strong statements regarding recent events around the world.

Netanyahu made the following remarks:
“Israel and Turkey recently agreed on a reconciliation process between them. We assume that this process will continue without any connection to the dramatic events in Turkey over the weekend.

In recent days, we also experienced the shocking terrorist attack in Nice and it underscores the need for a unified and aggressive approach in the face of the murderous terrorism that is attacking the entire world. I sent condolences — on behalf of the government and people of Israel – and my wishes for a recovery to the wounded, via French President Francois Hollande.

The Palestinian Authority also sent condemnations and condolences, but with one difference: Here, not only do they not condemn vehicular terrorism, they encourage it. They glorify the terrorists responsible and finance them and their families if the terrorists are dead.

Terrorism is terrorism, whether it is in France or Israel, and there must be a unified approach of condemnation and war on this terrorism – here and everywhere else.”

The sentiments of his remarks are clear: While the world cries for terror victims in Europe or the US, it remains silents when it comes to Israeli terror victims. While the world speaks of war on terror and fighting ISIS, it does not speak up when it comes to Palestinian terror. Netanyahu is trying to make the point that the motives behind Palestinian terror is no different than the motives behind ISIS and other terror groups.

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Druze Security Guard Praised for Apprehending Suicide Bomb Attacker and Saving Many Lives

On Sunday morning, a Palestinian carrying a bag with explosives was apprehended by a Druze security guard at a populated Jerusalem light rail station. A security guard spotted the suspicious man, tackled him to the ground and neutralized the threat. A bomb squad arrived and detonated the bag after closing down several blocks from vehicles and pedestrians.

The terrorist, in his 20’s and from Beit Ula near Hebron, was also found carrying several pipe bombs and knives. During questioning he admitted his plan to carry out an attack on the light rail train.

Jerusalem Mayor Nir Barkat of publicly thanked the Druze security guard and his team for their heroism. “This morning, thanks to the vigilance of the light rail security guards, a large terror attack was averted,” said Barkat. The Druze people have long been considered indigenous allies of Israel and they are upstanding citizens in Israeli society, volunteering in the army and protecting its citizens.

This attack attempt is just another one in the recent terror wave which started in October 2015 as a result of incitement by the Palestinian Authority to attack Jews.

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Hezbollah Drone Maybe a Harbringer for Renewed Fighting with Israel

The collective wisdom is that Hezbollah is too caught up with supporting the Assad government’s fight against ISIS to attack Israel, but Hezbollah’s penetration of Israel’s airspace in the Golan yesterday using a drone, may be an indication that things are about to change.

The IDF fired two Patriots at the drone and missed their target.  The drone made it back to its origin in Syria.  For Hezbollah, drones are a perfect form of both psychological warfare and reconnaissance. The important question is whether this is more of the same from Hezbollah or should Israel be prepared for renewed combat against Hezbollah.

In the last year the area West of the Golan has been the scene of warfare between Jihadist like Al-Nusra or ISIS and Hezbollah and Syrian Government Forces. There have been stray shells that penetrated the Golan and other incidents, but Hezbollah until recently has stayed focused on extraditing the Assad regime from the grips collapse.

The ramifications of renewed fighting between Hezbollah and Israel could be wide. The IDF will have to contend with Iranian troops as well as the Syrian army which is looking to raise morale. Fighting the “Zionists” is an excellent way to do that. The real unknown is Russia’s reaction.  Putin has taken a liking to Israel and wants it within his sphere of influence, yet is fully aware that he has supported Iran, Hezbollah, and Syria in their fight against ISIS.  At some point Putin will have to make a decision on which party to support for the long term. Renewed combat between Israel and Hezbollah will bring that decision to the forefront.

 

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Is Jerusalem Under Seige?

When Jerusalem’s light rail was finally finished and operational, the first worry was how to protect it from a terrorist attack.  Over a decade ago, suicide bombers targeted the city’s busses at will, until Ariel Sharon launched operation Defensive Shield. Today Jerusalem witnessed a frighteningly close call when a potential suicide bomber was stopped in his tracks.

A suspicious man carrying a bag was stopped on the train and when the bag was opened, explosives were found.  On one hand what happened is testament to the security services successful strategy, on the hand as the mayor Nir Barkat suggested, the city was saved only by a miracle.

Up until now the light rail suffered plenty of rock attacks when he reached Arab neighborhoods. The residents of Jerusalem have grown used to this occurence, but a bombing is a whole different manner. No one wants to relive those dark days of the second intifada, when Jerusalem felt as if it was under siege.

The light rail must have increased security and the mayor may have to do what he has been reluctant to do and that is closing the light rail stops that go through Arabs neighborhoods in order to cut down on flow potential terrorist into the heart of the city.

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Can Bibi Netanyahu and Vladamir Putin Save Kurdistan from the new Sultan of Turkey?

Bibi Netanyahu made waves last year when he came out in support of an independent Kurdistan. It really should not have been a surprise to observers as Israel has been a covert supporter of the Kurdish independence movement since its early days. Not only does Israel’s military supply the Peshmerga with weapons and training, the government has been buying Kurdish oil through back channels.

All of this has worked well for both sides as the Kurds have needed the training and money and Israel has needed a reliable partner on the ground to push back on ISIS, block Iran, and cause problems for Erdogan.  Now that Erdogan has used the coup, staged or real to complete his takeover of Turkish democratic institutions, the question for observers is which domestic constituent is his first target?

 

None of this should be a surprise.  Erdogan has scapegoated the Kurds for years.  True there are militant factions who would like to gain independence (rightfully so) but remember there are 10 million Kurds in Turkey alone and they are the majority in some Southern regions.  Erdogan will  attempt to settle the score and cement his rule by wiping the Kurdish people off the map. Turkey has done this before, over 100 years ago by killing millions of Armenians.

 

There are really only two leaders that can throw a monkey wrench in Erdogan’s plans: Bibi Netanyahu and Vladimir Putin.  Both of these leaders have not only warmed to each other, but have negative experiences with Erdogan.  Both of them were willing to bury the hatchet before the weekend for the sake of economics and stability, but dealing with a newly minted “Sultan” should change their minds.  With the Kurds being a moderating force and the only group proven successfully rule their region within the former Iraq and Syria, it is in both Putin and Netanyahu’s interests to stop Erdogan in his tracks.

 

How Can they Do This?

The first thing they can do is freeze rapprochement with Turkey. This may not work by itself, but it will send a message.  Next they need to arm the Kurds in Northern Iraq and Syria with modern weapons and provide air cover in case Turkey decides to attack them in those areas.  Lastly, they need to begin to provide covert assistance to Kurdish groups to defend themselves from Turkey’s now authoritarian ruler.

If Putin and Netanyahu do this, they will be credited in preventing a massive genocide and redrawing the map of the Middle East for the foreseeable future.

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Recep Tayyip Erdogan, False Flag Coup, and the Rise of the New Sultanate

There are times when rulers reach a zenith in their power.  Some of them fall away and others find a way to reverse course and rise again.  The failed coup in Turkey over the weekend marks the lowest point Recep Tayyip Erdogan. It also marks that moment that Erdogan shifts Turkey from a secular democracy to a neo-sultanate once and for all.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan has used the failed coup to do what he has always wanted to do.  He has wasted no time in purging the Turkish courts and military of secular members and tightening his grip on the country.

The real question though is why did this coup involve only junior members of the military? If it had such support how could it fail so miserably?

There are many answers, but one likely possibility is that Erdogan himself could have staged the coup in order to give credence to his wanton desire to take full control over Turkey. If this seems far fetched, Erdogan has been accused of false flag attacks before. One such incident was uncovered last year and reported at Shoebot.com: “Twitter whistleblower Fuat Avni claimed on Monday that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has ordered the intelligence agency head to stage a false assassination plot against his son Bilal Erdoğan in order to blame the Gülen movement.”

Others have reported that Erdogan himself has been quite open on the need to use a false flag operation to make an excuse for sending troops into Syria.

The coup attempt in the last 24 hours has been very weak, lending fuel that this was indeed a false flag attack.

Erdogan has always been quite clear in seeing his role as one of a reinstated sultan, presiding over an expansive rebuilt Ottoman Empire.  Since he has become president, Erdogan has increasingly solidified control, while expanding Islamic influence throughout the Republic of Turkey. No one should forget that it was Recep Tayyip Erdogan who made the following statement: “The mosques are our barracks, the domes our helmets, the minarets our bayonets and the faithful our soldiers…”

Russia Will Not Wait

If it becomes clear that Erdogan is in fact strengthening his grip in a far more complete way than he already has, Russia will not hesitate to make moves to check Turkey in order to ensure Erdogan can do little harm to Putin’s influence in the region.

In the coming weeks the rapprochement moves that had been underway between the two countries may very well become frozen if Putin feels the need to put the Turkish ruler back in his place.

Israel will Stay Neutral

Despite reconciliation between Israel and Turkey, the last thing Israel wants is a newly emboldened Erdogan.  If Erdogan is really about to transform Turkey into a sultanate, Israel will think twice before restarting weapons sales to its military.  With Russia and Israel building a closer friendship the two will be in coordination. This means that Israel is quietly positioning itself in opposition to NATO’s strategy in regards to both Russia and Turkey.

The USA is Backed Into a Corner

Obama quickly mumbled support for Erdogan.  This, even as Erdogan is holding troops USA troops hostage until the United States extradites Muhammed Fethullah Gülen, the Turkish preacher Erdogan claims is behind the coup.

 

 

It is too early to see what Obama will do, but most probably nothing. Afterall, Turkey is a NATO ally and is needed as a forward base to bomb ISIS. Look for Gulen to be extradited or this to be settled quietly behind the scenes.

Erdogan has always been focused on spearheading political Islam at a regional level.  The question isn’t whether he wants to be a sort of neo-sultan, but how. I think we have just seen the first steps in Erdogan’s strategy.  

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Regavim is Battling the European Union…Again

Fresh of its successful campaign to encourage British citizens to vote for Brexit, Regavim has filed a Supreme Court appeal against Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman and the Civil Administration.  The claim is that they have not fulfilled their duty in enforcing the law. This claim tackles an outpost near the village of Hizme just North of Jerusalem.  The site is funded and built by the EU in contravention of the Oslo Accords.

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Regavim has been successful in the past in forcing the government to take EU backed illegal building seriously. The EU is actively attempting to change the status quo in Area C, which is under full Israeli control.

“This non-enforcement policy strengthens the stated plan of the head of the Palestinian Authority to destroy the Bedouin outposts that are in the Maale Adumim area,” notes Regavim. “The purpose of this is to strengthen the Palestinian authority territories that are under full Israeli control and to capture the territories of strategic significance which are adjacent to major transportation arteries, and in this way to tie the hands of the State of Israel within the framework of future negotiations.”