Category: Regional Analysis

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Iranian Made Drone Downed By American Forces, Does the US Have a Coherent Policy in Syria?

Late yesterday, US Coalition forces shot down an Iranian made UAV comandeered by the Syrian military.

“The armed pro-regime Shaheed-129 [unmanned aerial vehicle] was shot down by a U.S. F-15E Strike Eagle at approximately 12:30 a.m. after it displayed hostile intent and advanced on Coalition forces,” the coalition command said in a press release.

“The Coalition has made it clear to all parties publically [sic] and through the de-confliction line with Russian forces that the demonstrated hostile intent and actions of pro-regime forces toward Coalition and partner forces in Syria conducting legitimate counter-ISIS operations will not be tolerated,” it said.

The US and their allied partners in Syria still assume the deconfliction zones layed out with Russia have remained in affect.  This stands in contrast with Russia’s own statement after the downing of the Syrian jet. Russia has made it clear that all foreign warplanes in Syrian airspace will be shot down.

Is There an Actual US Policy in Syria

With each passing day an incident it has become apparent that the US policy in Syria is non-existant.  This is not to say they have nothing in the works, but they have been caught of-guard by the lightening speed movement of Russian backed pro-regime forces and Iranian Shiite Militias and are trying to push back.

With Daraa falling and regime forces using the Raqqa battle to push Eastward, the US and their coalition forces need find a fast way to push the regime back without causing the war to turn into something much larger.  So far no remedy has been found.

David Gardner from the Financial Times said the following in an opinion piece about the situation:

“The limited initiatives to somewhat attenuate the Syrian disaster are almost all coming from Russia: a tripartite (and ineffective) ceasefire with Iran and Turkey; the “de-escalation zones” Moscow proposed in May, albeit in the four areas where the Assads still face strong challenges from rebels; even a constitutional blueprint to decentralise power in Syria. The US has come up with next to nothing. The common denominator in these three Russian initiatives may be — some western diplomats involved in Syria suggest — that President Vladimir Putin is groping towards an exit strategy from Syria. If so, nothing Mr Trump is engaged in looks likely to help him find one.”

One counter to Gardner’s assertion about Russia’s involvement is that Putin ever the chess player has been playing both sides in the war in order to create an underlying need to entrap the Americans in a quagmire not easily extricated.

While it is clear what happened over the weekend and late yesterday are ominous, they are more examples of an administration being handed a hot potato by its precedessor and not getting up to speed fast enough to handle it.

While Trump may not have moved fast enough to counter Syrian and Iranian advancement in Syria this is more of a product of clear indecisiveness in being ready to push back against the Russians in their desire to control the Levant.

 

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Why is the Iraqi Government Supplying ISIS with Humanitarian Aid?

BasNews, a Kurdish magazine reports that the Iraqi government is tranferring, “thousands of tons of medicine are being transferred to the Islamic jihadists.”

Below is the video proof:

If the Islamic State falls apart, why is the Iraqi government who is headed by a secular Shiite aiding a Sunni Jihadist group?

The answer is simple, the Iraqi government has always functioned on two levels.  On the national level it is run by a Shia who heads a secularist Sunni party, but Iraq has its own Deep State, which has been penetrated by Baathists from the Saddam years.

More than that, a Der Spiegel report published two years ago, blew the lid off of the minds behind ISIS. The report details how the Islamic State was in fact birthed by the same Baathist leadership that had been behind Saddam Hussein.

The Der Spiegel report named Samir Abd Muhammad al-Khlifawi other wise known Haji Bakr as the architect of the Islamic State.

“The former colonel in the intelligence service of Saddam Hussein’s air defense force had been secretly pulling the strings at IS for years. Former members of the group had repeatedly mentioned him as one of its leading figures. Still, it was never clear what exactly his role was.

But when the architect of the Islamic State died, he left something behind that he had intended to keep strictly confidential: the blueprint for this state. It is a folder full of handwritten organizational charts, lists and schedules, which describe how a country can be gradually subjugated.”

The secular Baathists understood to regain control of Iraq they had to align with far more driven Jihadists.  It was in this vein that they penetrated the countless Jihadist cells fighting against the US and its nascent Iraqi government. Bakr methodically implemented a plan of using Islamic labels to attract and set up a Baathist control structure that allowed them to capitalize on the chaos in Syria to take over the Eastern part of the country in order to launch a war to regain Iraq.

To do this they needed Islamic underpinnings in order to attract young fighters as well as an excuse to use religion to control their planned Baathist superstructure.

“In 2010, Bakr and a small group of former Iraqi intelligence officers made Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the emir and later ‘caliph,’ the official leader of the Islamic State. They reasoned that Baghdadi, an educated cleric, would give the group a religious face.”

Der Spiegel goes on to methodically build a case that the Islamic State is nothing more than a Baathist initiative to regain control of Iraq.

“Although Iraq’s dominant Baath Party was secular, the two systems ultimately shared a conviction that control over the masses should lie in the hands of a small elite that should not be answerable to anyone — because it ruled in the name of a grand plan, legitimized by either God or the glory of Arab history. The secret of IS’ success lies in the combination of opposites, the fanatical beliefs of one group and the strategic calculations of the other.”

Below is a channel 4 report on the real beginnings of the Islamic State:

The US Inadvertantly Lent Help to ISIS Under Obama

Whether the Obama administration understood the depths of the Baathist roots to ISIS or not may never be known, but what the White House and the Department of Defense believed was that transferring weapons to Sunni Jihadist in Syria would help aid the downfall of Assad.  Not only that the Department of Defense also believed that such “weak” mini caliphate would be able to hold off the Iranian march to the Meditereanean.  The White House wanted the caliphate to be strong enough to destabilize the region, but weak enought to allow the Iranians to march across the Middle East.

The Baathist roots to the Islamic State explains why the goup was successful in utilizing every opportunity to grow into a force that nearly took back Iraq, but why is Iraq still supplying them with weapons?

Although the Baathists as mentioned above have penetrated the government at various levels, another possibility for the transferring of such a large amount of humanitarian supplies is that Iran itself who influences the official army of Iraq and is control of large parts of Iraq through aligned Shiite militias is keeping the Islamic State.  The Iranians are doing this to encourage continued instability in Syria in order to bog down the American backed SDF while utilizing the chaos to establish their control.

What ever the reason behind the shipments of supplies one thing is clear: If we don’t stop the desire  to create chaos in order to establish neo-fascist controlthen the region will continue to experience war and instability.

 

 

 

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WAR ESCALATES: Why Did Iran Just Shoot Missiles Into Syria?

The war in Syria has gone from intensified to explosive as the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced that it fired several ground o ground missiles in from Western Iran into Syria’s Deir Ezzor region in the country’s East.

The purpose, according to the Iranians was a realiation for the attack on Tehran by ISIS on June 7th.

Most likely the Iranian missile attack on Eastern Syria was far more a message for the US coalition than a retaliation against ISIS.

Three points to consider:

  1. The proximity in time to the downing of a Syrian Warplane makes the missile attack a likely soft-retaliation for the US attack within sovereign Syria.
  2. The Iranians need a powerplay as the SDF/YPG are moving South and North in a rush to pick up the pieces as ISIS falls apart. The message is clear: “Don’t expect a post ISIS Syria to be a cake walk.”
  3. Iran wanted to send a message to Israel: “We can already reach you.”

As the Syrian war seems to be exploding in a far more dangerous and chaotic way all the issues surrounding the war are coming to a head.  The next move is now Trump’s…is he willing to stop Iran?

 

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Kurdistan is Coming Whether Turkey Likes It or Not

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_btn title=”FOR $5/MONTH YOU CAN SUPPORT MICHA’S WRITING” color=”primary” size=”lg” align=”center” button_block=”true” link=”url:https%3A%2F%2Fwww.paypal.com%2Fcgi-bin%2Fwebscr%3Fcmd%3D_s-xclick%26hosted_button_id%3DPBTQ2JVPQ3WJ2|||”][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]The Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) in Iraq declared on June 7 a plan to hold a referendum on the region’s independence this year on September 25. This decision has put into motion the KRG’s drive for independence and the first serious nail in the coffin of the post-colonial state structure in the Middle East.

Despite anger over the referendum in Ankara, Turkey is continuing negotiations with the KRG.

“Our primary aim is to correct this mistake through negotiation. We will keep working on this issue,” the Turkish presidential spokesman said. “To adopt an immediate sanction such as closing the border gate without sitting with them is out of question.”

 

With the Mosul operation essentially on cleanup mode, the Peshmerga has gained significant territory that is now considered part of the KRG and is included in the referendum.

Arif Qurbany a Kurdish political analyst and observer wrote the following in his opinion piece on Rudaw: 

“A decision to set the referendum date in Kurdistan to determine the fate of the Kurdish nation in Iraq with the inclusion of Kirkuk and the all Kurdistani areas outside the Region was a crucial and brave move for all the parties that attended the meeting.”

 

Despite his support for the referendum, Qurbany urged all Kurdish parties to unite in order to see independence be successful:

“If all the people of Kurdistan together have a united will, then the opposition of foreign nations to the referendum will not have a substantial significance and will not pose a threat to the process, just as the nation’s will in the spring uprising of 1991 overcame all barriers. When we also wanted to hold elections for the parliament and later formed the government and declared federalism, not only did no government or country support us, but also they threatened to attack Kurdistan. But because the will of the nation was behind its leadership, no reactions or threats from anyone worked as the Kurds proved themselves on the ground. They were even obliged to deal with us.”

 

Turkey has much to lose from an independent Kurdistan as does the Iraqi government.  Kurdistan remains the most stable area of Iraq and is oil rich. An independent Kurdistan based in Northern Iraq will most likely extend into Northern Syria and connect to the YPG which has already declared itself an autonomous Kurdish region in Syria. As the KRG prepares for the referendum, covert allies of the autonomous area such as the USA and Israel remain silent. Israel itself has nurtured a behind the scenes relationship with the burgeoning country through military training, oil sales, and arms provisions.

Israel took a similar tactic in South Sudan, which most credit for the young country’s successful independence drive.  For Israel, an independent Kurdistan provides it a buffer against Shiite expansionism and a moderate Muslim ally.

The most important geopolitical result of an independent Kurdistan will be a direct check to the expansionist desires of Turkey’s semi-dictator Erdogan, who has had his sites in reinstating a mini-version of the Ottoman Sultanate.  Kurdistan is the best chance for the region to begin to rectify the colonial pursuits of the British and French as well as the Ottoman Empire.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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Will America Move CENTCOM from Qatar?

As the Qatar crisis heads into its second week another shoe is evidently about to drop.  The AP reported that the U.A.E.’s ambassador in Washington, Yousef Al Otaiba, urged the Trump administration to consider moving its air base out of Qatar.

“Maybe someone in Congress should have a hearing and just say, you know, ‘Should we consider moving it?’” the ambassador said in Washington on Tuesday. “And maybe not moving the entire base. Maybe just distribute to various countries so you don’t have all your eggs in one basket.”

The airbase is home to CENTCOM the hub for the US military in the region.  If the US would move the enormaous base Qatar would lose the last piece of leverage it has with the West.

Although behind the scenes the US has been supporting the Saudi led maneuvers against Qatar, it was not until recently that President Trump iterated his support for the Saudi blockade.

“One of the big things that we did, and you are seeing it now in Qatar and all of the things that are actually going on in a very positive fashion, we are stopping the funding of terrorism,” Trump said. “We are going to stop the funding of terrorism. It’s not an easy fight but that is a fight that we are going to win. We are going to starve the beast.”

Although moving CENTCOM is highly unlikely at this point, nothing should be ruled out. With Saudi Arabia moving fast agianst radical Jihad, the time for action is clearly now. If the US does indeed move CENTCOM, it may be the trigger that will start the next round of war in the region.

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How Serious is the Emerging Alliance Between Israel, Greece, and Cyprus?

The answer to the above is… very serious.  I wrote the following over a year ago in my article: Israel is Moving Beyond Turkey:

The alliance stands to quickly change the Eastern Mediterranean geopolitical reality, providing a sense of stability in a region engulfed by radical Islamic chaos. The burgeoning partnership is a testament to Israel’s increased standing in the World, despite the claims of isolation due to a lack of movement in the “peace process.”

Prime Minister Netanyahu is departing today to meet with the leaders of both Greece and Cyprus in Thessaloniki, Greece, for the third G2G meeting and for the third trilateral summit between the leaders of Israel, Greece, and Cyprus.

According to reports agreements are expected to include tripartite cooperation in the fields of energy, communications, environmental protection, innovation and scientific research and development.

The emerging East Mediterranean Alliance not only strengthens Israel, but changes the geo-political reality in Europe as the EU continues to collapse.  Already Israelis find it easy and affordable to travel to Greece and Cyprus for vacation.  In terms of joint military and energy exploration, the three countries are suited to work together to create stability in the face of Middle Eastern chaos. The alliance offers Greece and Cyprus an alternative to the centralized power held by the EU in Brussels.

As world alliances begin to shift away from the post cold-war model, rising economic and technological power like Israel have begun to provide regional stability. So are we seeing an emergence of a new trading zone? Don’t be surprised.

 

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Has the Trump Administration been Arabized?

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_btn title=”FOR $5/MONTH YOU CAN SUPPORT ALLAN’S WRITING” color=”primary” size=”lg” align=”center” button_block=”true” link=”url:https%3A%2F%2Fwww.paypal.com%2Fcgi-bin%2Fwebscr%3Fcmd%3D_s-xclick%26hosted_button_id%3DPBTQ2JVPQ3WJ2|||”][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]The struggle between the US Deep State and the Trump administration can probably be felt the most in foreign policy, especially when it comes to Israel. It is no secret that Donald Trump wants to arrive at a peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinian Arabs. Despite the goal, administration or at least many in the administration believe the method rto arrive at such a coveted agreement should be far different than those attempted before.

According to a Channel 20 report, the White House has presented a set of principles to restart negotiations between both sides. The principles include:

  • Tempering construction in Judea and Samaria
  • Security measures in coordination with Jordan and the Gulf States 
  • Normalization of relations between Israel and the Arab states

The thorny issues of Jerusalem and the refugees will dealt with after real normalization takes place.

The same report cites Israel as wanting to add two more principles to the list:

  • Cessation of incitement to violence on the part of the Palestinians
  • Cessation of payments to terrorists and their families

The important part to this report is the fact that the White House is demanding that real normalization between the Sunni Arab world takes place first. At first glance, this appears to be a break through in approach. However, lets keep in mind that the Saudi Peace Plan, which calls for a full Israeli retreat to the arbitrary green line expects the same thing. There is an argument to be made that Trump has succeeded in calling for a change in order in that this normalization must come first, but at the end of the day normalization can be reversed if the Arabs feel Israel is not “retreating” fast enough.

Any connection between an Israeli retreat and the ethnic cleansing of its Jewish citizens to normalizing ties to Arab states who only yesterday were funding Hamas, ISIS, and the Muslim Brotherhood smacks a severe disconnect with the issues at the core of the conflict.

With all of that being  said the Trump administration seems intent on battling back the State Department’s classic approach on the subject of Israel-Palestinian peace by disconnecting Foggy Bottom from the process altogether. The truth is that any process will have negative effects, yet there is something to say in battling back the Deep State, which has been embedded at the State Department for decades.

The key person to look at it in all of this is the President’s long time lawyer and confidant, Jason Greenblatt.  As one source involved in the White House said:

“There’s basically only one guy – Jason Greenblatt. That’s it. There’s no office, there’s no bureaucracy.”

 

Greenblatt is an orthodox Jew and deeply connected to the right-wing in Israel. The crafting of the above principles clearly came from him. Once again, this seems excellent for Israel. On the other hand, the State Department, which has been Arabized since the 1940’s has clearly convinced the Trump administration by way of Rex Tillerson and Gen. McMaster that the Arab peace proposal should be considered as an important part of an overall framework.

So how much has their influence crept into an overall policy by the President?  This is hard to know and won’t be known until negotiations reach a decisive phase where Trump’s loyalties to one of the sides will be tested.

Regardless of this, Tillerson’s comments to a Senate Committee regarding Palestinian payments to terrorists should be noted and done so with concern:

“They have changed their policy,” Tillerson said, referring to the Palestinians. “At least I have been informed they’ve changed that policy and their intent is to cease payments.”

 

The problem with this statement is that the Palestinians admit themselves that they did not change their policy concerning payments to terrorist families.

“There have been talks about making the payments in a different way, but not ending them,” said one official, according to Reuters who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to comment on discussions held with the Americans. “They could perhaps be labeled differently,” he said, suggesting the description “martyr” could be dropped, but he added: “They are not going to be stopped.”

 

Israel concurred and added:

“Israel is unaware of any change in the policy of the Palestinians, who continue to make payments to the families of terrorists.”

 

This purposeful obfuscation presents a challenge to those who understand that the peace process is nothing more than a globalist imperative to break down Israel’s ancestral rights to Land with a false occupation narrative. Will Tillerson and McMaster win out? That depends on the coordination between Greenblatt and Israeli officials who are being very careful to point out the Arabs true reasons for normalizing relations with Israel.

At the end of the day, if Donald Trump wants a deal no matter the cost and the Arabs continue to shower accolades on him, then the peace process he hopes to invigorate will turn out to be a disaster.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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Are Post ISIS Alliances Already Taking Shape?

As the Raqqa operation gets underway, with the SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) ploughing forward into the “capital” of ISIS, the terror group’s leaders and fighters are said to have already travelled to safe havens along the middle Euphrates.  With the American backed SDF bogged down in strett to street fighting, Iranian paramilitary units are pouring in from where they helped fight to free Mosul to Eastern Syria to destroy the heads of ISIS.

This struggle for land as ISIS collapses is forming the beginnings of regional boundaries that in essence brand new lines between ethnic units as well as defined frontiers of regional alliances.

Rising up from the rubble of ISIS are two clearly definied groupings.

The first consists of Russia, Iran, Syria (Assad), Turkey, and Qatar.  None of these countries trust eachother, but work together under a common interest in battling back America as well as seeking a piece of what they see as a rising Middle Eastern hegemony.

The second group is made up of the United States, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, UAE, Jordan, Egypt, Kurds and Israel.  This grouping sees the first group as an existential threat and has been conjoled to work together by the Trump administration.

With the fall of ISIS a matter of weeks, the real battle will come after. Iran has used the chaos to reach to the Israeli border.  They have shown the ability to capitalize on the weaknesses of their enemies. Besides Iran, Hezbollah can now turn its sites on Israel.

The Middle Eastern alliances now taking shape even before the last of the caliphate are buried not only put Iran im the drivers seat, but increase the likelihood of war sooner rather than later.  The Syckes-Picot agreement, the document based colonialist and neo-colonialist pinciples set in motion by France and Germany is becoming irrelevant as a new set of states and mini states take shape.

As the chaos spreads throughout the region and beyond, the Saudis backed by Israeli tehnology will attempt to push back on the Shiite gains in order to create a buffer between the Kingdom and its enemies. The Kurds backed covertly by Israel and overtly by America will be encouraged to push forward in order to stabilize Northern Syria and Iraq and break the link between a power hungry Turkey and their allies in Qatar.

Be prepared the Great Game of the Middle East is about to begin. It could very well be far more destructive than the havoc ISIS has caused.

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Did the US Create ISIS?

Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei made the following statement yesterday:

“You (the United States) and your agents are the source of instability in the Middle East…who created Islamic State? America … America’s claim of fighting against Islamic State is a lie.”

Iran’s Supreme leader went on to claim that Iran has proof that the US did indeed create ISIS.

As I wrote last year, there is overriding evidence that this is indeed true.

Department of Defense documents that have been declassified in the last year confirm that the Obama administration encouraged the flow of weapons into the moderate rebel groups in Syria, knowing they would eventually fall into Jihadists.  This worked well as it helped grow an independent Sunni state in Eastern Syria and Western Iraq.  Of course, when this state, later to be renamed ISIS refused to play by the rules, the game had turned dangerous.  Far worse was the West’s Sunni Caliphate than Assad or Iran.  Now to destroy the Frankenstein they built, the USA is forced to work with its sworn enemies.

Furthermore, it was Qatar and Obama’s willingness to work with Qatar’s leaders in helping to sow chaos that makes the current conflict between the Saudis and their allies and Qatar, Turkey, and Iran so interesting. The theory has been that the Obama administration sought to create a new Al-Qeida that would pave way for a Muslim Brotherhood run Sunni Middle East, it has been Russia, Iran, and Turkey that has benefited most from the chaos.

Instead of an anti-Iran Sunni caliphate, the Iranians have used the chaos to reach the borders of Israel.  Turkey has attempted to use the chaos to wipe out the Kurds, who have successfully repelled Erdogan’s advances. In fact, one can see a pattern far more sinister at play.  Obama, knew that the chaos could be used to give a now friendly Iran the ability to create real stability in the Middle East.

What about the DOD document above?  For Obama and his pro-Iranian advisers, the reasons are not important.  They understood the DOD had their own reasons to build ISIS. Obama only had to encourage it in order to use its creation to give Iran the go ahead to create their version of “stability” in the Middle East.

Iran, their proxies, and Russia are now in control of the Northern Levant, a situation no one thought possible a few years ago. ISIS became Obama’s perfect foil to give the Shiites what they always wanted. The Middle East Obama handed Trump on January 20th became a region in chaos, whose only savior appeared to be Iranian hegemony.

Trump is Dismantling Obama’s Chaos Creation

President Trump understood that ISIS was a dual creation of NATO, mainly the US and Turkey, which is why he has spent weeks demolishing the ISIS network with serious bombing missions, which Obama never meant to carry out. More than this, the Trump administration is actively arming the Kurds to destroy ISIS, no matter the consternation felt in Turkey. There is no question ISIS is going down. The only question is if Obama’s true master plan, that of Iranian control in the region can rolled back or not.

With that, the Ayatollah is correct, but it is his country who has truly benefited from the America’s 44th President’s misguided world vision.

 

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IRAN ON THE MOVE: Mullahs Send Warships to Oman, Food to Qatar

The Iranian based Tasnim news agency reported that Iran is sending two warships, an Alborz destroyer and a Bushehr logistics warship to Oman on Sunday.  They will depart from the port city of Bandar Abbas. The move comes as tensions continue to rise between much of the Sunni Arab world and Qatar. The report says that the ships will continue from Oman to the Gulf of Aden, near Yemen.

Iran is continuing to step up its help to Qatar by flying food items to the isolated country.

“Following the sanctions … on Qatar, IranAir has so far transported food and vegetables to this country by four flights,” Shahrokh Noushabadi, head of public relations at Iran’s national airline, was quoted as saying by Fars news agency.

Iran has been sending over 100 tons of food per day since the sanctions took effect.

Qatar only has one land route and that is through Saudi Arabia. Furthermore, it sits completely inside the territorial waters of Saudi Arabia, which means it is completely reliant on the Saudis for imports unless they are made by air.

Will Yemen Heat Back Up?

Although out of the news. The Yemen war, which pits Saudi backed government forces against the Iranian backed Houthis has largely been ignored by the world media.  With Iran on the move again, will their retaliation against Saudi Arabia  be in Yemen? Seemingly Iran has the ability to increase its military adventures in a few areas. One would be against Israel through its proxy Hezbollah and the other is certainly Yemen.

With Iran openly backing the Qataris against Saudi Arabia, the region is quickly moving to war and increased chaos. The challenge for the world community is that this war is taking place in two of the most important shipping lanes, the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea. Any expanded war has the potential to affect shipping as well as spill over into a Sunni/Shiite wide conflict.

Iran has made its move. Are the Saudis ready to invade Qatar?