Tag: Bibi Netanyahu

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Defeating Foggy Bottom in Israel

History will mark Israel’s election last year as a watershed moment.  Whether the country fully identifies and supports Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu really doesn’t matter. As Minister Zeev Elkin said yesterday, “Likud’s victory saved Israel.”

The State Department dispatched countless operatives to insidiously inject themselves into last year’s election campaign on behalf of the Zionist Union, in an operation that can only be described as meddling and string pulling. The Israeli electorate rebuffed these actions by handing Likud an enormous victory.

With the revelation of a secret deal between Herzog and Abbas now publicized, the V15 and Foggy Bottom’s strategy becomes even more gross.  Essentially, the State Department under directives from the Obama administration sought to unseat and defeat Prime Minister Netanyahu. By doing so their aim was to place a puppet government in charge of Israel in order to sign a final status agreement with the Arab Palestinians.  This agreement would have divided Jerusalem and created a sovereign terror entity in most of Judea and Samaria.

“In my contacts with the Palestinian Authority chief during 2014 I made efforts with the goal of reaching an understanding that would have prevented the wave of terror which I saw coming,” Herzog responded to the report.

The idea that any agreement, especially one that is a product of Western covert force would have prevented the current wave of terror is ludicrous. The Palestinian Authority has no ability to stop the terror as it is.  Placing Abbas and his Western supported mafia in charge of even more land would have spelled complete destruction for the State of Israel.

By voting for Likud last year the Israeli populace was sending a message to the American government. “Stay Out!” It is true, billions of dollars in US aid flows into Israel annually and although many in Israel rightly claim, we no longer need it, the fact is even when we take the money the US gets a tremendous return on it.  Unlike other countries that actually survive solely because they are being propped up by American aid, Israel provides the American military with forward intelligence and details from multiple fronts in the Middle East it cannot collect on its own. This intelligence sharing comes at a price and that is military aid.

This aid has gotten to Foggy Bottom’s brain and instead of respecting the relationship, they have repeatedly abused it.  The Israeli voter used last year to move on and proved ready to redraw the relationship if needed.  Last year was not an expression of love for Bibi, but a rejection of American neo-colonial influence, along with those politicians in Israel willing to play the puppet to a foreign puppeteer.

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Is the Israeli Government Empowering Islam’s Disregard for History?

“Israel is not the problem on the Temple Mount; Israel is the solution,”Bibi Netanyahu said back in October 2015. “We’re keeping the status quo, we’re the only ones who will do it, and we will continue to do this in a responsible, serious manner.”

Over six months after those tense fall and winter months, when it looked like all was about to unravel under an increasing terror wave from Palestinian radicals, the spring seemed to bring an odd calmness.  Even the Temple Mount, the supposed heart of the conflict saw a growing amount of Jews being allowed up.

To many, the Prime Minister’s approach seemed to have worked and yet we see, like always what the real reason is for the reprieve in Palestinian violence in connection to Jerusalem.

With the help of Regavim and other activists, a situation came to light concerning the Muslim Waqf’s intention to alter the status quo by harming the walls of the Temple Mount in order to facilitate increased access for Muslim worshipers in time for Ramadan in June. The site in question is on the Mount’s South side and would irrevocably damage a declared antiquities site.

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In March 2016 the Israel Antiquities Authority  filed a lawsuit against the Muslim Waqf in the Jerusalem Magistrate’s Court that petitioned the court  to give a permanent injunction prohibiting the continued work of the illegal site and restitution.  The injunction was in fact granted, yet one day later the Prime Minister’s office intervened and the injunction was lifted.

This is Bibi’s style.  He talks tough and behind the scenes gives the Palestinian Arabs some gifts in order to remain calm. This particular gift is set to be explosive and would be the first time since the Waqf dug up ancient artifacts on the Temple Mount that they would be allowed to completely alter the status quo.

In early May the Antiquities Authority sent a message to the court insisting the government appeared set on settling the matter through discussion with the Waqf.  In fact, the political echelon admitted that they wanted time to have a dialogue and asked for an extension that would lead until July.

“In the meantime, and during the period in which you are active on the political level and try to finish the matter through dialogue with the Waqf, the  illegal construction at the archaeological site continues, in violation of the order to stop work against them with total disregard for their obligations according to the law and instead attempt to talk with them,” lawyers for the Antiquities Authority charged in  written statement. “The construction works are expected to be completed at the archaeological site with the start of Ramadan in about two weeks. The experience of our client says that as soon as work on the toilets will begin, it will be difficult for future enforcement actions.”

This week right wing NGO Regavim issued the following the statement: “This week, we issued an urgent letter to the prime minister, the mayor of Jerusalem and Minister Regev that the (IAA) is under her wing. We are also preparing a petition on the matter to the Supreme Court. This destruction of Jewish History can not continue on the Temple Mount.”

The question of status quo is constantly pushed to frame actions by Jews on the Temple Mount as encroachment, while actions by Muslims and their supporters are merely restoring that which the Jewish presence altered.  The real question for the government is at what cost do we incur by letting the Muslim Waqf radically change our holiest site in exchange for some quiet. Giving up on the Temple Mount sets the stage for the rest of Jerusalem and so forth. The government would be wise to admit to itself and to the public that the farce of a “status quo” is just that, a lie and if the Waqf cannot uphold its part of the agreement, we no longer need to as well.

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Trump, Israel, and the Need to Navigate the Global Chaos

Whether one likes Donald Trump or not, everyone agrees he has forever changed the landscape of American politics. The Donald’s scorched earth policy on his adversaries has not only worked to ensure he becomes the Republican nominee, it has upended the political and donor class of the US two party system.

No amount of will or force will be enough to give Americans what they crave.  The world has changed.

Americans have more or less opted to back a candidate who “will get things done,” rather than pay homage to the constitution and the framers’ vision of an exceptional nation.  The rest of the world has for many years seen things this way, yet for the US it has clung to a notion that it was different and special.  In truth, with spiraling debt, a waning military influence, and a generation of distracted spoiled youth, America may have in fact seen its best days behind it.  Of course this is what many out there, outside the beltway and big cities fear and this is exactly the type of fear Donald Trump draws his energy from.

No amount of will or force will be enough to give Americans what they crave.  The world has changed. The emerging economies of the East and Africa, coupled with innovation engines like Israel are changing the global dynamics overnight. It’s true Americans need a President that will get things done, but the Donald’s notion that one just needs to be a good manager and force a populist agenda will increase the chaotic downward spiral that American’s feel they are in.

 

Trump Ensures that Israel will Pivot Away from America

With Obama’s flip flopping on everything to do with foreign policy, especially when it comes to the Middle East, Israel has increasingly turned elsewhere for new partnerships.  Israel has grown closer to India and China as well as the Eastern African countries like Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia, and Rwanda. Relations are growing with a host of Eastern European countries as well as former Soviet Block nations like Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan.

Israelis crave stability and the last few years has put a monkey wrench in their country’s desire to carve a stable environment for their economy and populace to thrive.  Obama’s weak foreign policy has thrashed old paradigms, while creating a host of new challenges.  Trump’s chaos is too much for many Israeli leaders and his ascendancy may well drive Israel further towards China and even Russia. In an environment with increased instability, the Israeli government finds itself in an unenviable position in having to decide on putting stock into an America in decline versus positioning itself as the most reliable country in the Middle East with a neutral foreign policy.

Trump’s rhetoric, although welcome by many in Israel after eight years of a post American foreign policy approach by Obama, is far too erratic and unbalanced to be trusted to force a re-calibration of America’s interests.  More likely it will help entrench those very forces Israel is now dealing with.

 

Surviving the Coming Chaos Requires a New Paradigm in Partnership Building

Whether we like it or not, the world seems bent on heading into a period of tremendous chaos and instability. Trump’s ascendancy is only part of the reason for this. Other reasons include increased technology usage in developing nations, Islamic fundamentalism, a rising East, an imminent EU collapse, as well as others.

The situation does not have to be dire. Israel needs to continue to build reliable partnerships with countries like India, China, and Kenya.

If we create a partnership between Israel’s inventive capability and China’s manufacturing capability, we will have a winning combination.

Increasing trade ties between China and Israel have now led to discussion concerning a free trade agreement. Already back in 2013 Prime Minister Netanyahu said, “Israel is not as big as China. We have eight million residents, approximately one-third the population of Shanghai. But we manufacture more intellectual property than any other country in the world in relation to its size. If we create a partnership between Israel’s inventive capability and China’s manufacturing capability, we will have a winning combination.”

Israel is seen by many in Sub Saharan Africa as a reliable military and trading partner, with budding relationships mimicking the same trajectory that occurred between Israel and India over a decade ago.

The government will have to figure out what to do about Russia.  They are not going away and Putin may be the best suited to help Israel put pressure on Hezbollah and Iran. Whether it is Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton, Israel’s traditional geopolitical and economic relationships are permanently resetting. These newer partnerships Israel has been cultivating become an important part of creating a far more stable world order.

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Bibi Netanyahu: I was shocked

“Two weeks ago, I was shocked to hear that UNESCO adopted a decision denying any Jewish connection to the Temple Mount, our holiest site. It is hard to believe that anyone, let alone an organization tasked with preserving history, could deny this link which spans thousands of years,” Netanyahu wrote on Facebook.

“That is why today I am announcing a seminar on Jewish history for all UN personnel in Israel. I will personally host the lecture at the Prime Minister’s Office. The seminar will be given by a leading scholar of Jewish history and will be free to all UN staff and diplomats, including of countries which voted for this outrageous decision.”

Of course Bibi is right. The decision to disconnect the Nation of Israel from the history of the Temple Mount is outrageous, but no one should be shocked at UNESCO’s erasure of Jewish connection to its holiest site.  The organization has been politicizing its decisions instead of sticking to its mandate, which states it has purely educational goals.

The challenge is that Bibi’s own government restricts Jewish access to the mount, giving the impression that the State of Israel does not value its connection to the site.  Reverse that and organizations like UNESCO have far less strength to rewrite history.

 

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To Annex or Not to Annex That is the Question

If anything proves the Left’s assertion that the Likud led government is pushing Israel towards a One State solution, it is the Norms Bill. The Norms Bill, pushed by the Justice Minister, Ayelet Shaked will apply Israeli Law to all Israelis living beyond the Green Law.  Since 1967, the Southern command has been in charge of deciding which Israeli Law could apply for Israeli Citizens in Judea and Samaria.  

Despite the Right’s rebuffing of the Left’s attack on the Norms Bill, the legislation does push forward the notion of a de facto annexation by directly applying civil law for its citizens, which in a sense contravenes the international law of an occupying power. Two points below are especially relevant:

  • The occupant does not acquire sovereignty over the territory.
  • Occupation is only a temporary situation, and the rights of the occupant are limited to the extent of that period.

It would be hard to prove that the Israeli government does not not understand this.

Forcing the Issue

The Norms Bill, although welcomed by the Right and a majority of the country creates a moment of decision if Israel wants to preserve the notion that it is playing by Western rules. The Israeli government has constantly displayed the need to preserve the status quo in relation to the Palestinian question.  

The Norms Bill forces a true discussion of which direction the Israeli government wants to go.  If passed, the signal is that Oslo is at last buried.  The challenge is what comes next.  The World and the Palestinian Street will use the measure to force Israel to make decisions that may be dangerous.  

Bibi and his cabinet are not stupid, they understand that the status quo is long gone and it is time to push an Israel first agenda forward.  The question will be, if the solution they want will be implemented in a way that not only works for Israel, but can be explained to others.

 

Bibi is Coopting Parts of Bennett’s Solution

Naftali Bennett ran on a proposal to deal with the Palestinian conflict by allowing limited autonomy in areas A and B, while applying full Israeli Sovereignty to area C. He called it the Stability Plan. With Bibi and Yaalon attempting to pull the IDF out of Area A, the push back from Bennett and Shaked was swift and serious. The Norms Bill gives Bennett and Shaked and the broader right of center camp a piece of what they want.  Mix the two actions together and you get a condensed version of Bennett’s plan.

So why is Bibi doing this and why now?  It is clear that the Western World is going to try to impose some sort of terms of agreement on the situation in Judea and Samaria.  Bibi has always viewed the situation unsolvable. The most he will offer is some sort of Middle Eastern version of Luxembourg, which the Palestinians and their Arab allies will not accept.  Given the terrain, the current Israeli government is trying draw up their own terms, but literally on the ground.  Time will tell if this status quo with a few changes will be enough to stall the international consensus that some solution needs to be forced.

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Elor Azaria, Bibi Netanyahu, and the Collective Disconnect of Israeli Leaders

The case for or against Elor Azaria, a young soldier who shot dead a neutralized Arab attacker on Hebron has opened up a Pandora’s Box both within Israeli society and the IDF.  Azaria is being charged by the army for manslaughter, since in their reasoning he had no need to shoot dead an already neutralized terrorist.  

When news first broke out, condemnation from government officials was swift, after all the far left NGO B’Tzelem took the the film and distributed it, but the condemnation turned from a PR play into a much more insidious move. The IDF Spokesman immediately issued a seemingly kneejerk response: “The chief of staff views this as a serious incident. … This is not the IDF, these are not the values of the IDF and these are not the values of the Jewish people.”

Whoever supports these kinds of acts [the soldier’s] is damaging the values of the Israel Defense Forces.

The public outcry was swift and tremendous. Rallies were held, which seemingly forced the army to reduce the charge from murder to the present manslaughter. Yet, none of the public outcry has had an effect on the top brass of the defense establishment.  “It really worries me. Part of the power [of the IDF], as many have described it — [David] Ben-Gurion, Menachem Begin and others — is our ethical strength. We aren’t Daesh. When there is a need to kill, you kill. When we need to be resolute, we are resolute. But when someone has his hands up, or is already neutralized, that’s when you arrest,” Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon said in response to the rally in support for Azaria held in Tel Aviv, prior to Passover. “Whoever supports these kinds of acts [the soldier’s] is damaging the values of the Israel Defense Forces.”

The incident has done more to damage the public’s faith in the government and IDF leadership than any security failure could have.  The simple reason is that the young soldiers drafted into the army and put in harm’s way in defense of the Nation of Israel have always been regarded as off limits for public and media scrutiny. The IDF and government maliciously turning against one of their own has essentially confirmed for the public how out of touch the leadership really is with the plight of the common Israeli.  

Whether he was guilty or innocent was beside the point. The point was that his commanders – beginning with the defense minister and the chief of General Staff – were treating him like a criminal instead of a combat soldier on the front lines defending our country from an enemy that seeks our destruction.

“For the public – including the five thousand citizens who came to the support rally for Azaria at Rabin Square on Tuesday – the critical moment was when the film of Azaria being led away from the scene in handcuffs was broadcast on the evening news. That image, of a combat soldier who killed a terrorist being treated like a criminal, was the breaking point for the public,” Caroline Glick wrote in her article about Azaria. “Whether he was guilty or innocent was beside the point. The point was that his commanders – beginning with the defense minister and the chief of General Staff – were treating him like a criminal instead of a combat soldier on the front lines defending our country from an enemy that seeks our destruction.”

Bibi is In Trouble

The last time Bibi lost the premiership, it was not because Ehud Barak was so much better, it was do to the fact that Bibi had cut off his base with the Wye River Accords, which broke his campaign promise to the Right not to hand anymore land to the Palestinian Authority as well as a back track on ending the disastrous Oslo accords. Bibi’s political blunders have never been against a weak Left, but happen when he forgets that his strength comes from the lack of follow up to the verbiage he gives to the Right.

Bibi’s political blunders have never been against a weak Left, but happen when he forgets that his strength comes from the lack of follow up to the verbiage he gives to the Right.

The problem with the Azaria case for Israel’s government is not whether, the soldier did anything wrong or not. In a fluid situation, armies always allow for flexibility in individual soldiers’ reactions.  By making this case more about morality than a simple breaking of IDF rules of engagement, Bibi and his government (save for Bennett and other like minded ministers) have essentially cut off the very base that put them in power to begin with.

Bibi may be faced with a choice very soon to either jettison the left side of Likud, represented by Moshe Yaalon or be taken down by others who have not yet divorced themselves from the Israeli public.

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The Kurdish-Russian-Israel Detente is Set to Change the Middle East

“We don’t aspire to create an autonomous zone that is exclusive to the Kurdish nation,” said Rodi Osman, director of the Syrian Kurd’s representative office in Moscow. “We envision to install a federal regime, democratic and secular, in which all parts of Syrian society can live and by which they will feel themselves represented,” he told reporters.

The fact though, is that the newly declared autonomous zone is another step along the way towards an independent Kurdish state, not only in Syria, but in Iraq as well.  The Kurds are the largest indigenous group of people still without a sovereign state.  However, that may be changing.

If the Kurds do in fact reach independence, in at least a partial part (Iraq and Syria) of their historic homeland, they will have ISIS to thank. Without ISIS, the Kurds would have at little leverage on the world to back them towards independence.  Interestingly enough, it has been Russia as of late that has come to bat for the YPG (People’s Defense Units) in Northern Syria. While the USA, Turkey and all parties in Syria rejected the Kurdish declaration, Moscow, did not.

Russia’s abrupt pullout of Syria, maybe more to do with a realignment in Putin’s strategic thinking in who he can support to continue boxing in Turkey and bolstering his control in the Middle East.  Remember, the Kurds are primarily secular and they have proven themselves very efficient in rooting out and destroying ISIS.  An independent Kurdish state in Northern Syria and Iraq, backed by Russia would not only put an end to American hegemony in the region(if there is any left). It would however be a death knell to Turkey’s expansionist philosophy.  For Putin, he cannot accomplish this with Iran and Syria’s Assad as they bring far more downside.  

For Israel, A South Sudan Redux?

As the Western world continues its decline, Israel has been carefully continuing its strategic realignment. It is no secret that Israeli officials met with Russian representatives about security issues in the North. This meeting took place just days before the Syrian Kurds declared their autonomy. It is also known that not only does Israel buy Kurdish oil and train the Peshmerga in Iraq, but Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu has gone on record supporting Kurdish independence.

Some would point towards South Sudan as a model for Israel to replicate with the Kurds. However similar, there are some very big differences.  The first is that Turkey, the USA, and the rest of NATO is in direct opposition.  The Kurds seem to have the entire world against them, except Russia. Yet, expecting Russia to rush a Kurdish state is to expect them to drop both Syria and Iran. This was very unlikely until now and that’s what makes the situation very interesting.

The Sunnis and Shiities look upon Kurdish independence as a break up of Arab colonialism from the South and Turkish colonialism from the North.  The Kurds, as are the Jews, Druze, and Arameans are the true indigenous people’s of the region. An independent Kurdish state would help no other Middle Eastern country except for Israel and with Putin’s increasing involvement in the region, an independent Kurdistan is becoming more of a reality than ever before. If the switch is on for Russia, Kurdistan would only need Israel’s tacit support, since the Russian Bear could offer it far more. For Israel, it needs to make sure it is on the right side of this geopolitical shift.  If not it could risk becoming further isolated.

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Is Bibi Overwhelmed or is he Just a Great Chess Player?

Bibi Netanyahu has been Prime Minister closing in on 8 years in a row.  If you count his first stint as Prime Minister, he has served more than any other Prime Minister other than David Ben Gurion.

He has been able to deal with a very antagonistic Washington administration, while dodging about everything the Israeli political scene can throw at someone. Bibi’s political mastery is perhaps one of the most envied talents around.  It also makes him the most despised politician by his enemies.

Part of Bibi’s ability to manage the chaotic Israeli political arena is precisely because of the chaos that exists within it. The ever consummate chess player, Bibi keeps his real views to himself, while he allows his opponents to cannibalize themselves.

Centralizing the Prime Minister’s Office

Prime Minister Netanyahu relies on a loyal circle and the power of the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) to create a de facto executive branch within the actual government. Under Netanyahu, Israel’s Prime Minister has come far closer to the US Presidency than ever before.  

We have seen this most clearly in Bibi’s appointment of Yossi Cohen to the head of the Mossad. Cohen was the National Security Advisor to the Prime Minister.  He has been a close confidante of Bibi’s for many years and now he heads up the world’s most successful intelligence agency.

We also see this by placing the Foreign Ministry under the PMO. Sure there is a Deputy Foreign Minister who acts as its face, but day to day the PMO runs the show.  There are more and more examples of this.

Many pundits are aware of the situation.  Even Shelly Yacimovich expressed similar sentiments in 2014, before the current coalition. “This situation is not only ridiculous, it is also reckless,” Yacimovich warned. “The government of Israel is not a political game in Netanyahu’s hands or a nice hobby. It is the sovereign of Israel, the power that runs our complicated lives.”

The centralization has only increased.

Is Bibi Still Inevitable?

Israelis have generally trusted Bibi Netanyahu.  This does not mean they like his style or politics, but in a world that appears to be increasingly chaotic, they see him as the most capable of navigating the current ship.  That is until the eruption of the present intifada.  As days grind on and more and more people are getting killed and hurt, a certain hole is being punctured in the inevitability of the Prime Minister.  

So far no real challenge exists, but polls indicate  a growing dissatisfaction with Bibi’s handling of the security situation. Could be Bibi’s inability to crush the current violence open him up to being taken down? So far it is not clear.  However, it is precisely his obsession of keeping his political opponents at bay, which has seemingly boxed in his ability to deal with the deteriorating security situation.

The obsession at staying in power is a focus that seems to many to take far more energy than unleashing the security forces in a far more proactive way.  It’s true, Israeli politics has long been far more akin to a mafia movie like Goodfellas or Godfather than something that actually works in a stable format. With that in mind Bibi has done a good job stabilizing the “game,” and yet, that’s just it, Bibi has spent most of his energy holding things together, not pushing them forward.

Israelis are tired of tough speeches with no action. With everyday that goes by with no solution, weary Israelis are becoming more and more ready for a change, no matter who brings it.

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Hezbollah Gets a Raise

As I sit here writing this article a monster is being let out of the cage.  All the talk of “peace in our time” too as well as changing strategic partnerships are just euphemisms for politicians who have given the regime in Iran what it needs to go from being an uninfluential terrorist sponsoring state to already on its way to becoming a regional superpower.

Already an emboldened Iran is forcing the hand of the Gulf States to decide between Saudi Arabia and themselves.  It has made it clear that it will pour tons of money that is being unlocked as part of the agreement into its army and terrorist entities.

The idea that Iran needs a nuclear weapon to wipe out Israel is a farce. It does not need nukes nor an ICBM for that.  These are things it needs to attack Europe and America. This what made the Iran Nuclear Deal so ridiculous.  It’s as if the Western powers really believed that Iran just wanted to kill Jews, something none of them really took issue with.

Nasrallah is Coming for Jerusalem

Iran’s main weapon against Israel is Hezbollah.  With Hezbollah’s hundreds of thousands of missiles covering most of Israel, Iran does not need a nuke to knock out Israel’s vital locations. Add to that Russia’s coverage of the Levant under the S-400 system, which makes a surprise attack by Israel against Hezbollah installations daunting to say the least. Hezbollah has also been receiving Russian weapons in its fight against the Syrian rebels.

With Nasrallah to Israel’s North, it is no wonder Bibi is trying his best to be on good terms with Putin.  Ultimately speaking, the USA and Europe have little or no leverage on Iran, but Russia is different and so Bibi’s strategy is to woo the newest Tsar and hope that in time another solution arises.

Iran Unleashed

Now that the nuclear deal is a done and money is flowing into Iran, the stakes in the Middle East have risen.  Iran’s regime is revolutionary in nature.  Revolutionaries do not rest until the revolution is complete. For Iran it is simple. When the Mahdi comes the Revolution is done.  For Iran, their first target is Saudi Arabia and the next is Europe and the USA.  Israel, is of course a target, but one that Iran believes will and can be taken care of fairly easily.

The Mahdi or the hidden Imam will only come when the world reaches a state of chaos. The Western governments and Russia have seen no harm in enabling one of the most dangerous regimes in the History of the World. Of course their rationale seems unchanged from their counterparts over 70 years ago in relation to Hitler.  Then Hitler was “only” after the Jews.  Chamberlain and company saw no problem with letting a bunch of unwanted Jews die to avert war.  Well, war came anyway and with it, the near destruction of the world.

This time, the global elite have made a similar judgement. War is not far off, it is moments away.

Iran Can be Stopped

The irony of Iran’s re entry into global markets is that crude oil prices stand between 29 to 31 dollars per barrel. That is far lower than needed to sustain the Iranian economy. With their oil back into global circulation the price will plummet further.  This means the Ayatollahs cannot wait to pounce on their neighbors, but must move quickly before their economy implodes completely.

This makes Iran extremely dangerous in the short term with the potential for sparking global conflict by attacking Saudi Arabia and Israel. Furthermore by forcing both the USA’s hand as well as Russia’s conflict is in the offing.  

If Iran balks in the coming weeks, their economic turmoil will increase.  At that point the regime will be in danger. Essentially, Iran can be stopped by the regime itself.

Conclusion

Despite neoconservative warmongering against Iran and their client regime in Syria, the best choice of action at this point is to find a way to keep forcing the price of oil lower until Iran either makes a faulty step forward or waits too long to jump. Militarily speaking Israel and those seeking to defend the World from the Mullahs must be ready to fight when Iran attacks which will come sooner than expected.  The rest will be up to the Almighty.

 

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Iran and USA: Cornering Israel

Shortly before President Obama’s final State of the Union Address, Iranian Revolutionary Guards gunboats seized and detained 2 ships belonging to the United States military and the ten marines on board. Less than 24 hours later the marines were released. The typical chorus and rhapsody of neoconservative pundits seriously believed that this would be the “straw that broke the camel’s back” and Obama would have the guts to stand up to the Persians.

The assumption that the Obama administration works according to the same rule book that past Presidents have is a perception that just doesn’t fit.  The Obama administration won’t risk war with Iran, not because it believes war is bad.  Afterall they toppled Gaddafi. They won’t risk war with Iran, because Obama and team and their shrills in the media believe wholeheartedly that Iran should be seen as a future strategic partner.  After all, Obama didn’t even mention the captive soldiers in his State of the Union Address. Of course for Obama, this is more to do with his world outlook than strategic positioning.

Barack Obama is a transformational President. In that regard, bridging the divide with Persia, a country he believes deserves respect because of their ancient roots, fits in with his restructuring of geopolitical partnerships.

Furthermore, it is quite probable the action Iran took was undertaken from the beginning as a means to show that they are actually reasonable. Given Obama’s rapprochement with Iran, he is more than willing to let Iran play the part of a reasonable actor.

Israel In a Corner

Bibi Netanyahu’s entire mantra is that one should not negotiate with irrational actors as was done with North Korea. Bibi has from the beginning tried to prove that Iran and North Korea are very similar.  This has fed into Obama’s strategy of showing the opposite.  By inculcating in the American people that Bibi and Israel are saber rattling and preventing what should otherwise we be a rapprochement, then the bad guys backed by the neocons is really Israel.

Once again the the chess match between Bibi and Obama has entered another back and forth phase.  The challenge for Israel is realizing they are playing  at a chessboard alone as their challenger plays with very different rules and a far more sinister goal.