Tag: Golan

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Is Putin Ready to Throw Iran Under the Bus?

The announcement that Prime Minister Netanyahu and Russia’s President Putin are set to meet this Wednesday the 23rd of August in the Russian resort city of Sochi doesn’t seem to stand out as significant.  Afterall, the two men meet every few months to prevent any friction between their countries.

So what makes this meeting so different?

In the span of time between the their last face to face meeting, President Donald Trump acquiesced to allow Russian armed observers to man the borders of Israel and Jordan.  This was under the guise of ensuring a ceasefire between the Syrian regime and rebel forces. Although there were some rocky first moments, the plan has brought a modicum of quiet to the areas in question.

The challenge for Israel has been what the Syrian Regime and Iran are using the “ceasefire” for. It has become clear that Iran and Syria are seeking near control of the Golan border area.  This they have accomplished by way of their Russian allies.

What’s Next for Iran and Russia?

The prevailing assumption has been that Putin would give Iran enough of a leash to clear out the rebels in Syria, but not enough for either Iran or Syria to be dominant in the Levant without the go ahead from Russia.  While it is important to understand that any overt alliance puts Israel’s security at risk, the now quarterly meetings between Bibi and Putin mitigated much of this. Of course, all of this depends on Putin holding Iran and Syria back from placing game changing forces on the Syrian side of the Golan.

Iran and Russia have a working understanding that Iran can do what is necessary to clear the rebels and ISIS out, but given Putin and Bibi’s deconfliction understandings anything else would be deemed an abrogation of the working agreement between Tehran and Moscow.  The ceasefire agreement between Trump and Putin made during the G20 Summit is a good test of this.  For the first time Russia would open a corridor for Iranian troops to move right up to the Golan, yet the actual movement of those troops negates the deconfliction strategy with Israel.

Up until now Russia has allowed the IAF to strike where it needs to against Iran. More than that, sources tell us that Putin even relays targeting information personally to Bibi.  Iran and Syria maybe allowed utilize the ceasefire to move troops to the Golan, but if the past is any kind of predictor then they are on their own.

While most pundits believe these sorts of actions will eventually spell the end of the Iranian-Russian Alliance this is more of the same for Putin.  He relishes in playing multiple sides of each other in order to effectively control the situation.

Reaffirming the Deconfliction Understandings and More…

Bibi’s trip to Moscow is more about reaffirming the deconlfiction understandings in light of the new reality of Russia’s troops now manning the Golan border. Russia has no interest in allowing Iran to attack Israel, which would fully destabilize the region.  Putin wants recognition by Israel that Russia is the new player in the Levant and that it Israel will have to reevaluate how it relates to the fast changing Middle East.

Putin will keep allowing Israel to attack Iranian and Syrian targets. In Putin’s grand strategy this keeps the region in balance while he continues to take more and more control.

As America continues to minimize its overt involvement in the Middle East, the vacuum created is leading to a new order with its strings more or less being pulled by Moscow.

Israel’s goal is to hold onto to its security independence while treading carefully though a new Middle East.

 

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Syrian Regime Continues to Violate Ceasefire, This Time in Quneitra Next to Israel

The Free Syrian Army based East of Israel’s Golan posted the following tweet:

Given the ecstatic jubilation over the “ceasefire deal” brokered between Trump and Putin on the sidelines of the G20 these sorts of violations that have been growing in the descalation zones have esentially deemed the ceasefire deal to be at the most a PR stunt if not rendered pointless.

With Al-Baath under attack by regime and Iranian forces, which is only 2 km away from Israel’s Golan the infractions are far more serious.

Is the Regime Goading Israel into Attacking?

One possible strategy is for the regime to blame Israel for breaking the ceasefire.  If the regime continues to advance in towards the Israeli border in the Golan, the Israelis would have no choice but to resume attacking regime military targets as they were doing last week.

Any counter-attack by Israel to sure up their FSA allies will run into the growing presence of Russian military police. The ceasefire has essentially be flipped to place US allies in the region on the defensive.  This will continue until the Trump administration is able extricate itself from the already collapsing ceasefire.

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Is the Syrian Regime Getting One Last Battle In Before Today’s Ceasfire Kicks In?

Arab news reports are filled with an ongoing battle in the Syrian Golan, close to the DMZ that separates Israel’s Golan, from the Syrian held Golan.  The Syrian regime and their Iranian allies are skeptical of the ceasefire deal Russia and the US have inked and have made it clear to teir Russian counterparts they have little intention of following it for long.

After all, the Syrian regime has been on a role and has drawn close to the Israeli border.  The Russian ceasefire essentially freezes Syria’s war on the FSA, but at the same time places Russian military police in charge of the area.

As the battle rages between the Syrian regime and rebel forces in the Quneitra region, Israel has taken no chances and has used drones and other surveliance tools to monitor the battle as the ceasefire comes in. Iran has made it clear they will use the ceasefire to regroup and build up their Syrian allies to be ready to take more rebel controlled territory near the Israeli border when the ceasefire collpases.

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Bibi Netanyahu: “Whoever attacks us – we will attack him.”

Prime Minister Netanyahu travelled to Katzrin yesterday, the capital of the Golan to celebrate the 40th anniversary of the founding of the renewed city.

Netanyahu said the following about the shelling that occurred in the area just a day before:

“We are here celebrating the fortieth anniversary of Katzrin, the capital of the Golan Heights. I said that we will not tolerate spillover and that we will respond to every firing. During my speech, shells from the Syrian side landed in our territory, and the IDF has already struck back. Whoever attacks us – we will attack him. This is our policy and we will continue with it.”
The IDF has responded with attacks against Syrian regime forces whenever there has been spillover from the battles the FSA, ISIS, and Assad and his allies are fighting.
Last week, FSA related militias tacitly backed by Israel launched a major offensive against regime forces.  Israel used the spillover to target Assad’s soldiers and weaponry.
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ROCKET ATTACK: Calm With Syria Lasts Less than a Day

At ten last night a rocmet from Syria hit Israeli territory in the Golan. The IDF reported no injuries. The attack wrecked the short calm in attacks from Syria.

The question in military circles is whether the IDF will use this spillover to attack Syrian regime forces like before. The Israeli backed Syrian militias known as the FSA is in the middle of a huge operation to free the Damascus-Daraa road from regime and Iranian forces.

Israel has been lightly aiding the FSA with attacks when hit first by stray rockets.

 

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SYRIA CRISIS CONTINUES: Gunfire Spills Over into Israel Three Days in a Row, IDF Responds

Gunfire from Syria was reported this morning (Monday) in the Golan Heights, for the third consecutive day. As in the past two days, there are no casualties or damage.

The IDF ordered farmers in the Quneitra Valley to evacuate their orchards and closed the road leading to Ein Zivan, due to heavy smoke in the area as a result of the fighting in Syria.

Security sources reported hearing IDF tank fire, ostensibly in response to Syrian territory, but said that “the reports of an attack in Syria are false reports.” It added that “there were no indications and risks in the systems, and no alarm was sounded.”

Minister of Defense Avigdor Lieberman said at the start of yesterday’s cabinet meeting:

“We have a lot of prophets who predict war in the north or the south, we have no intention of initiating a military move – neither in the south nor in the north.” However, he clarified that “we are not going to give a pass on anything, everything will have a powerful response.”

“I wanted to warn the people in Damascus, whoever wants to turn the area there into a Hizbullah base, give it another thought,” added Lieberman. “We will not accept that Syria becomes another base that will become a front against Israel.” 

As Syria and Iranian backed militias gain a foothold in the Quneitra district, Israel will be forced to openly back the rebels in the area or enter the war themselves.  If Syria and Iran gain access to the Golan, Israel’s security would be imperiled due to the Golan’s strategic vantage point.

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SYRIA CRISIS, BREAKING: IDF Fires Back at Syria After Getting Hit With Mortars

The IDF announced that reports they retaliated to Syrian mortars were in fact true.

The IDF has instructed farmers to stay out of open areas. Furthermore, the IDF has closed Highway 98, which runs near the Golan Heights border, due to exchanges of gunfire across the border in Syria.

Israel has gone out of its way to stay directly out of the Syrian Civil War. However, it has become clear that Israel has funneled supplies to militias friendly to the Jewish State in order to keep Syrian and Iranian forces far from the border. Israel Rising reported last week as Daraa falls to regime forces, the Syrian government and Iranian militias will put heavy pressure on the Free Syrian Army in the Golan area.

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Syrian Fires Mortars Into Israel…Again, Will Israel Strike Back?

The IDF is now reporting that the Golan has suffered another mortar attack. There have been no injuries.  This follows a mortar attack on Saturday, which caused the Israeli Airforce to retaliate attacking Syrian military positions who were engaged in fighting Al-Nusra.

“We will respond strongly, resolutely and with level-headedness to any such case,” Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman said. “As far as we are concerned the Assad regime is responsible for what occurs in its territory and will continue to suffer the consequences if such events recur.”

The attack today may not cause the IAF to attack back, but as fighting ensues on Israel’s border the Israeli military will have to reconsider their involvement. This is especially true if the Syrian government succeeds in pushing rebel forces and ISIS.

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SYRIA CRISIS: Will Har Dov Be Iran’s First Target in Israel?

Har Dov maybe the first target of an Iranian attack on Israel.

As the Iranian and Russian backed Syrian government continues to extend its offenses South into the Daraa province, effectively cutting off Israel backed militias in the Eastern Golan with their counterparts East of Jabal Al-Druze, the next stop for the campaign is to move West on the Golan border.

Israel has controlled the Golan since 1967 and annexed the mountainous area in 1981.  Syria has never hidden its ambition in taking back the strategic territory, either through war or negotiations. Unlike the Southern Lebanese border area, the Golan has only recently been the subject and focus of Hezbollah.

With the advance of the Russian-Iranian axis the Har Dov area of the Golan takes an added statregic importance. Claimed by both Lebanon and Syria, Har Dov, also known as the Shebaa Farms has been the source of increased surveilance by Hezbollah.

Sources close to Israel Rising told us the official response to these surveliance actions has been to not shoot out of fear of starting a war with Hezbollah prematurely.  Hezbollah agents are often seen close to the mountainous border fence aking pictures.  Since they are not armed, soldiers refrain from shooting.

So why is Iran focused on Har Dov?

Although the international community has backed Israel’s claim that the area is in fact Syrian and included in the Golan Heights, the Lebanese government still claims the strategic region.  More than that the border area is pourous as the IDF was forced to fence in the entire Arab town of Ghajar which is further South of Har Dov and lies on both sides of the Lebanese border.

As far as strategic importance, Har Dov leads to the Banias river which descends into the upper Galil opening up the entire Israeli North. With Iran/Syria/Russia building up on the Golan’s Eastern border, an attack and infiltration on Har Dov could effectively cut the Golan off from Northern Israel.

 

Har Dov in the Golan
Image Source: Garzo/Wiki

 

With the continued breakdown of the US backed coalition forces in Southern Syria, Har Dov becomes critical in defending against an Iranian backed attack on Iran. Northern Israel and the Golan Heights is fast becoming the next showdown in the Syrian conflict.