Tag: Golan

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Syrian and Russian Offensive on Daraa Resumes, Bringing Israel Into Iran’s Crosshairs

The Russian backed Syrian offensive resumed today after a 48 hour ceasefire.  Syrian government troops have already taken over  various neighborhoods in Daraa, putting pressure on the American backed Free Syrian Army (FSA). It was reported that the FSA was given an ultimatum on Saturday to pull back.  They didn’t so bombing resumed.

Daraa is crucial for a few reasons.  If it falls entirely to the Syrian government, the Syrian Rebels and US led coalition will split in half.  Even more dire is that the Daraa province buttresses the Golan Heights creating a corridor for Iranian militia to reach Israel. This will leave Israeli backed militia to fend off the more highly trained Iranians.

With the Wall Street Journal article making waves by connecting Israel’s humanitarian help to the strength of the Syrian rebels fighting the Assad regime, the above map makes it clear why the Israeli government feels it necessary to be bolstering these forces. Unlike the Lebanese Civil War, when Israel actually entered into the South of the country, the Netanyahu government would rather create a friendly buffer zone using humanitarian needs as a reason for helping the rebels.  The situation though, may be deteriorating and require the IDF to enter the fray to hold off the Iranians from reaching their border.

If Daraa falls the US and Israel will have to make a decision to directly enter the war or build up a workable containment strategy.  The next few days of the Daraa offensive will be crucial in determining the scope of both nations’ involvement.

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SYRIA ON THE BRINK: Russia Will Target US Airplanes in Syria

In response to the downing of a Syrian warplane by US forces yesterday, the Russian Defense Ministry said it will treat U.S.-led coalition planes in Syria, west of the Euphrates River, as targets.

Furthermore, Russia said it is suspending coordination with the United States in Syria. This coordination has kept the two super powers from direct conflict since 2015.

Is Direct Conflict Coming?

In one word, yes.  Without the deconfliction deal the chances of a direct conflict between the US and Russia is much higher.  Look for Putin to take steps in aiding the Syrian regime against US forces in Eastern Syria.

With a deconfliction agreement finished between the US and Russia, chances are Putin will scrap his deal with Israel.  This imperils the ability for Israel to defend itself in the Galilee and Golan.

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Israel Needs to Conquer Quneitra NOW!

After many years, it appears that the brutal civil war in Syria is significantly shifting in Bashar Assad’s favor. The Syrian Armed Forces, with relentless assistance from Russia, Turkey and Hezbollah/Iran, are advancing in all areas of the country against the various rebel factions. The rebel factions including ISIS, the former Al-Qaeda affiliate, the somewhat secular/somewhat democratic rebels, and numerous other small Sunni militias, are all in retreat. 

Despite the savage barbarism seen throughout the conflict, including the use of chemical weapons, execution of civilians, torture, rape and sieges by all sides, the previous long-standing general stalemate seemingly has been in the strategic interest of the State of Israel. As long as no side could win in Syria, no side could afford to be overtly aggressive to the neighboring countries.

However, all indications are that this will now change. Along with ferocious fighting in Aleppo, the Syrian armed forces and their allies are reportedly massing near the Golan Heights area, planning to eradicate the eclectic rebel presence in the area, primarily around the symbolic and strategic city of Quneitra. Now is the time for the Israeli Government to threaten to conquer Quneitra, again!  (Quneitra was conquered by Israel during the “Six Day War” in 1967 and foolishly returned to Syria after the Yom Kippur War in 1973.)

Quneitra and the surrounding area
Quneitra and the surrounding area

By threatening to conquer Quneitra, again, Israel will be sending a clear and real message to Assad that a permanent Hezbollah/Iranian presence there is out of the question. While the current situation of various radical jihadist forces in Quneitra is also wholly unacceptable, until now, its has been manageable. Its possible that when the dust settles, Assad will emerge victorious and strengthened. And its possible he will turn to his historic allies, Alawites, the Druze and others to rebuild his country. And maybe there is a possibility that he will look to abandon Iran/Hezbollah and forge peace with his neighbors. But for now, that’s wishful thinking – Shimon Peres style. And we’ve unfortunately seen where that can lead.

An Israeli conquest of Quneitra may become a strategic necessity and it might happen pretty soon. In the meantime, Assad should clearly understand that Hezbollah will not be opening a new front against Israel in the Golan Heights. And if he can’t understand that, then the State of Israel needs grow in size a bit and registration should be opened for the new Jewish residents of Quneitra. 

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Break the BDS

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The Great Game: Turkey-Israel Detente, Russian-Iranian Cooperation, and the Kurdish Question

The old adage “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” has been an increasingly confirmative rule in middle eastern governing circles.  With the collapse of American hegemony in the region that has caused a resurgent Russia and Iran to take charge of areas that stretch from Iraq to Levant, countries normally at odds with one another have found the strange inclination to actually form alliances to offset the bear and the ayatollahs.

The Turkish-Israeli rapprochement took many people by surprise, but in the current geopolitical realities, the détente makes perfect sense.  Keep in mind Turkey, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt all have the same enemy in Iran and fellow Shiite travellers.  Throw Putin’s Russia into the mix and the Sunni states were very quick to find the only other middle eastern nation they could bring in.  The danger of Iran and Russia is so great for these forces, Palestinian issue, which has long been used as a foil to placate the Arab street has been move to the back of the Sunni’s list of priorities.

Israel as the Anchor

Israel is actively seeking a cornerstone role in the wide-ranging alliance forming in the western part of the middle east. One can already see this in the gas deals being built between Egypt, Greece, Cyprus, and Israel.  With Turkey being brought on board, Israel’s role in bringing old foes to the same table is not being missed, especially by Russia, who thought it had Erdogan cornered.

Israel’s game is to offset Russia’s power play to its north by giving a lifeline to Turkey, Russia’s age-old adversary.  For now it seems to be working, although it is clear Russia is remains unnerved by the “Great Game” and is willing to pressure Israel by backing up Iranian, Syrian, and Hezbollah forces on the Golan border.

What About the Kurds?

Kurdistan as it is known by all Kurdish people across the middle east is spread across northern Syria, Iraq, southern Turkey, and western Iran. Turkey’s main challenge is to dissuade the Kurds from working directly with Russia. If they are not able to, then Russia will have  a fifth column of 10 million strong disenfranchised Kurds inside Turkey to use as leverage if needed.

Right now, barring a severe flare up in Israel’s northern border the “Great Game” of the middle east is in its early phases.  Geo-political maneuvering is still fresh and fluid.  Russia may opt to play neutral in the burgeoning alliance system and let Iran and Syria go it alone.  Russia may also be able to convince Israel to remain neutral as well in exchange for security promises.  No matter the outcome, this “Great Game” will not take 100 years like the last one as America’s pull back has shuffled the deck and wrought chaos on what was already considered a chaotic region.

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Israel Behind the News [Dec 23, 2015]

Breaking News: Israel Uncovers Hamas Suicide Cell in Jerusalem

Hamas was planning large scale suicide bombing attacks in Jerusalem.  At least 25 Arabs were arrested planning these attacks. Where?  In Abu Dis University.  It is good to know that the University is teaching live training.

Facebook Photo Makes Waves in the Arab World

Arabs from around the Middle East agree: Israel is not our enemy.  Over 100 thousand likes support an image showing the difference between the suffering of an Arab prisoner of a Syrian jail and Samir Kuntar in an Israeli prison. The difference is clear, the Syrian prisoner looks starved and frail, while Kuntar is plump.  Arabs are finally waking up to the realization that Israel is not their enemy. Let’s see if the trend continues.

Turkey is Playing Games with Rapprochement

Well the fabled rapprochement seems to be stuck in neutral.  Turkey is wiggling for room, but cannot have it both ways.  More likely than not this won’t go anywhere, especially since Russia and Israel are collaborating on far deeper level than originally thought.

Dermer Gives Obama Some Unexpected Holiday Gifts

Ron Dermer, the Israelis Ambassador to the USA, gave the White House presents for the holidays.  There is only one thing, they were all gifts produced in Judea, Samaria, and the Golan.